LongLeftFlank
-
Posts
5,356 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
15
Posts posted by LongLeftFlank
-
-
37 minutes ago, JonS said:
There's possibly also the hangover of bodycount reporting from the Vietnam War which, among its many problematic features, showed that casualty reporting wasn't an especially useful metric.
Agreed. But of course, while the USMAAG bodycount metrics (e.g. 'the Five O'Clock Follies') were pants for countless reasons, the Viet Cong were indeed being steadily bled white, as everyone from Giap on down admitted after the victory.
I don't know if there's a strict correlation from buckets of blood to territorial losses; we believe that the boundary fortifications built from 2014-2022 are a lot harder to replace once lost, and that seems to make intuitive sense.
...But beyond that, who the hell knows what a square km, or a shattered hamlet, is worth militarily? As @The_Capt noted thousands of pages ago, just how valuable is 'high ground' nowadays in the FPV era? A nice marshy streambed or wooded balka, otoh, is still tactically useful.
-
Two economics snapshots that tell interesting stories:
1. RU piped gas to EU and LNG exports have surged. While you're hitting the O&G infra, and you have all those Sea Babies lying around....
2. EU has 'grown a pair', and is looking at slapping tariffs of up to 50% on BYD EVs, to stop their auto sector going the way of their solar and wind industry (and so many others) in the face of subsidised Chinese dumping of, well, every goddam' thing...
There is of course much wailing and gnashing of teeth among Green apostles who view China-subsidised (and coal powered) everything as the saviour of the planet.
-
7 hours ago, Carolus said:
Death by a thousand needles is a thing.
Yup, we live in hope that it is, indeed.
-
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Calling it "soccer" will get the understatements rolling right off of those understated British tongues
Steve
As my dad explained it to me 50 years ago...
Association (football)* = 'soccer'
Rugby (football) -> 'rugger'
* e.g. the FA Cup
-
8 hours ago, Holien said:
Court politics...
The fact that they are airing it in public makes it very interesting.
Putler getting revenge or some one else?
One to watch...
Sushko is not to be relied on.
Also, Shoigu is no political lightweight, and I wouldn't assume the siloviki can throw him under the bus even if they wished to. I doubt Prigozhin was ever his creature; the guy simply got high on himself and went rogue when Wagner was reined in.
I posted some bio on Shoigu a couple thousand pages ago. Like Putin, he was a handpicked protege of Yeltsin in the late 90s. His family background/ training is in O&G construction (with the accompanying huge self enrichment opps), more than military. He had his own political party, briefly, before throwing in with United Russia. He's NOT an army careerist, in fact Putin likes him for that very reason.
-
With work, I'm not reading as closely on this any more. X going behind the wall didn't help.
But warm UKR bodies would seem to be the rate limiting step in executing on this plan.
With its current combat cadre worn out from 2 years of high intensity warfare, and in the drone era, probably its last mile support arms as well, UKR just doesn't seem to be up today for training up and manning the '150+ hi-tech Jaeger battalions' that they would need to make this work.
Don't honestly know whether it's 'can't' or 'won't', likely a bit of both.
Demographically possible, perhaps, if they truly mobilised the entire population 18+, including women, at the cost of what's left of their nonwar economy. But I now doubt that any Ukrainian leader, even a military junta, could execute such a strategy.
Simply saying 'you must do it because the alternative are worse' unfortunately doesn't make it happen.
My cursory read right now is the Ukes are exhausted and desperate for something, anything that will make Russia quit, or at least halt in place.
-
2 hours ago, Carolus said:
Does anyone who knows his way around artillery shells know what these Russians are doing?
One of them seems to be attaching fuses. But this whole activity is strange. Are shell housings usually closed off with a cap you need to bash in?
Plus ca change...
-
17 hours ago, Holien said:
How to bypass a government not doing what you want it to do.
Not sure it would work in America.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68843542
Most of us Norteamericanos are old enough to remember this one, right?
[/irony]
-
Then they came for der Mittelstand....
I keep posting energy tech stuff because the modular/miniature/precision armaments revolution is absolutely experiencing the exact same dynamics, just not so well documented (yet).
The West will innovate, but the Chinese will beat us to mass market, every time. With quality more than adequate for purpose. As innovative firms and their ecosystems starve and die, so too will innovation.
Solar panels are now used as fences in Germany because they are more affordable than the usual fencing.
The market standard for solar panels is now moving to Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (#TOPCon) technology, which improves solar cell architecture to reduce efficiency losses.
The technology was developed by Germany's Fraunhofer Institute in 2013, but large-scale manufacturing takes place mostly in China.
"European manufacturers have no money to change to the new technology. So now there is no competitive advantage anymore and they have to sell old technology."
-
By the waters of Willow Run, we lay down and wept, remembering thee....
China Already Makes As Many Batteries As the Entire World Wants (BBG)
BYD electric cars waiting to be loaded onto a ship at the international container terminal of Taicang Port in Suzhou, Jiangsu province.
(There are showrooms all over Manila and Singapore)
-
On 4/12/2024 at 3:48 AM, Battlefront.com said:
Small arms ammo? That's checkers, not chess! And no, I will not king you.
Steve
(Allegory, not history... perhaps)
One famous King who played the game of 'King', of chess, was the Persian Pad-Shah Shapur II, who was taught it by his wazir. The wazir was the better chess player, but the King was always the winner of the game.
The King attained victory by the ingenious device of overturning the chessboard at a crucial point of the game and declaring himself winner. This showed an imagination of the sort that the wazir did not have; and it was for this reason that Shapur was the King, and the wazir would never be anything but wazir.
- R.A. Lafferty_of_Shah_Tahmasp_MET_DP245149_(cropped).jpg/405px-%22Buzurjmihr_Masters_the_Hindu_Game_of_Chess%22,_Folio_639v_from_the_Shahnama_(Book_of_Kings)_of_Shah_Tahmasp_MET_DP245149_(cropped).jpg)
-
8 hours ago, Kinophile said:
Ukraine USV lessons are being absorbed worldwide...
Actual, actual....
FSRU Marshal Portovyy out of Kaliningrad (whose pipeline has not been cut off) offloads its cargo at sea to LNG tanker Cool Rover. Which ships the contraband gas to buyers who care less about its provenance than its price.
If [unnnamed Formites] want to act 'wised up' (woke?) about 'strategic global resources', perhaps focus on the stuff that actually moves the needle on balance of trade today.
That would (still) be stuff the belligerents can put in a pipe or a ship or a train and send where it gets the highest price.
Los!
-
11 hours ago, Holien said:
Just fixed that for you..
This war is giving the West a serious edge against China and its Russian knock off copies...
We can see what is working and we can re-tool and re-arm quicker than China.
This war has stopped China dead on its plans to invade Taiwan as they have seen how badly a 3 day war can go.
We are getting real time updates on what works and does not as we are embedded with Ukraine.
How close are the Chinese military with Ukraine?
Do you think China can magically change it's whole military based upon the Russian knock off kit?
The weapons America had in store have now been disposed of at a fraction of the cost it would have needed to
The kit was designed to deal with Russia and less so China so it is being used for what it was bought for.
American jobs and economy is winning because we are buying more of the kit and it works!!!
You really do need to think through this - It is a no brainer for America!!
Finland / Estonia / Poland are not going to stop giving support any time soon.
France and Germany are another thing but currently show no sign of backing down...
As much as I would love this all to be true, due to the Western innovators' need to raise funds, the Chinese are now able to beat (and undercut) any newly commercialised Western product into mass production by stealing all the required IC under a guise of investor due diligence.
And this is not the TU-144 'Concordski' or Yak-36 'Forget'er' we are talking about any longer. The 'knockoff' products of companies like Xiaomi (which I can get out here in Asia, as well as in Europe) are increasingly comparable to their Western originals in reliable functionality, if not always in service life.
Again, as much as I'd like for that not to be true, we must be realistic about this.....
-
Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community. -
28 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
Hopefully it will be easier to husband this resource on defense, with proper fortifications. I am optimistic Syrkski has learned a lesson here.
So far, as Capt has said, they can deny ground but not hold it. Basic last-mile autonomy is coming extremely soon, and it’s going to hurt badly for the Russians when their EW can’t stop a certain fraction of drones that could be stopped before.
As we’ve discussed, having all 3 is likely a fantasy. That’s a problem, because all 3 are easy on the drone side when you talk about autonomy or most other soft-ware driven features.
Yup, and these comments further point up that the key currency in this phase of warfare remains human flesh and blood ('soft ware').
...So short of intercepting, neutralising or 'decontrolling' the drones themselves, the critical path to me is to 'harden' those targets and staunch the bleeding by any means possible (and preferably at mass scale), whether it's decoys, camo, armour, fortification, physical distancing, whatever.
-
22 minutes ago, Erwin said:
Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals (primarily needed for EV's) which with China gives them a huge longterm strategic advantage (assuming that we do not switch from EV's to a better source of power like hydrogen). All Russia has to do is sit on that land and hold out.
Link please? (and preferably from an industry publication that studies resource flows, not just some guy making sh&the up).
...Regarding essential resources, I share the fear expressed by others above that the essential and non-substitutable resource that is going to run out first is Ukrainian frontline infantry strength. They've done a good job of hiding it and so it's impossible to prove, but I am extremely worried....
*****
Meanwhile, waxis of weasels:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/
....
-
4 hours ago, Joe982 said:
Pay wall. What does the article say?
-
-
7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Let the horse trading commence!
Forget the talking heads, my old friend @Vet 0369, 'follow the money' crosses all partisan lines, everywhere and at all times!
...sorry Vet, I named the wrong guy and can't edit for some reason. No intent to call you out, and you are quite right on free speech, although it's also important to stay OT (I am as guilty as others of straying).
-
Let the horse trading commence!
Forget the talking heads, my old friend @Vet 0369, 'follow the money' crosses all partisan lines, everywhere and at all times!
-
1 hour ago, poesel said:
As soon as you can chat with a missile, bad things happen.
One of my faves!
Commander Powell would have named it.
-
1 hour ago, sburke said:
yeah, I've been avoiding this thread while sfhand is monopolizing its subject matter. For a guy that was gonna post just once, he's sure proven to be long winded.
Talk to the @SFHand.
-
I dunno, @SFHand has been a BFC forum regular for quite a while, so try to be kind.
(And I too have no love for clan Biden)
...OTOH, the kneejerk: 'whatever USSA supports -> support the opposite' gets a little tiresome, especially when it's a dog whistle like this.
-
1 hour ago, Tenses said:
The question is actually, if Ukraine should care.
Yes, they definitely should (and it seems, do).
Remember, one of the gambits the Tucker wing is (ingenuously) pulling is basically: "what dog does America have in this fight? they're both corrupt Slavic oligarchies. Screw 'em both."
Ukrainians killing foreign citizens by the hundred feeds that BS meme, sadly. Fine, they shouldn't be in Russia, blah blah blah, wevs.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted