The_Capt

Daaaammnn. So that extends the range of the String Ray from 8-11 kms by another 80kms if the tech specs hold up. If you mount this system on a small boat (which could also be unmanned) we are talking over the horizon strike capability.

Anyone else hearing about an uptick in Russian desertions? https://www.thestar.com/news/world/no-way-out-russia-faces-growing-problem-with-deserters-after-two-years-of-war-in/article_301e39f4-d194-11ee-b5c2-37d184ccc94b.html#:~:text=As the war in Ukraine,forcibly returned to his country.

Wheels within wheels. Those posts are likely already gone or moved , but it will drive the Russians nuts trying to find them. The stories of what is happening beneath the water line will fill volumes in about 10-20 years.

We looked at that left hook up near Belgorod, it just isn't viable: So nearly 350 kms into Russian territory for the long option. Putting aside Russia freaking out and going with tac nukes, which this might just push em to. The distance is a long way to go and sustain, all exposed to Russian counter-attack. Any major force trying to pull off this stunt is likely going to get cut off and sliced up. Even the "short" option down to a node such as Starobilsk is a long run that would need a well coordinated link up. And then one has Staroblisk...whoopie! This is not about western pearl clutching, it is about big gambles with low probability of payoff.

Well they would need to field an offset, which would be FPVs or some such. No one has ever achieved firepower superiority (let alone dominance) using UAS but if it is going to happen anytime soon it will be in this war. It will be a test of “massed precision beats everything” if the UA can create and project the mass. Or we could stop with the jerking around and simply send more boom-boom. Or, crazy idea, we do both and really light a fire under this thing.

I have always had an eye on the Kherson sector. I thought those river crossings last year could be the start of something…here is hoping for this year.

Now that is interesting. This was a c-C4ISR move, clearly. Russia does not have the same space based capabilities. Now what else will Ukraine do to blind and numb-out Russian command and control? One A50 is a start. And what is the endgame here? Make space for Ukrainian local air superiority? Oh my, wouldn’t that break minds?

I don’t think anyone of serious power in the West wants a full Russian collapse. The overall Western grand strategy since the end of the Cold War has been “stable status quo”. We have spent the last 33 years pretty much working on all fronts to sustain “the system”. We toss scarfs and hats on it but at its core is a central unchanging stability. Why? Because stability is good business. The West, with the US at the centre built the scheme that “won” the Cold War and want that party to keep going because we get very rich off it. The rest of the world makes our stuff for cheap, while also buying our other stuff. But pretty much from Day 1 “the others” pushed back. First was the intra-war years, interventions and then terrorism. Now this has upscaled to “revisionist states” and “power competition”. Russia invaded Ukraine for several reasons but one of them definitely was to demonstrate that they are not going to be bound by western rules (Hell, Putin said exactly this in that speech back in Sep ‘22). This puts the West in a dilemma, they can either do too little and Russia threatens the system, or they crush Russia…and it threatens the system. So they appear to have chosen the middle path, which of course is getting hijacked by the internal movements who want to…wait for it…change the system. MAGA, alt-right, nationalists, whatever, all disagree with “the system” even though it has made everyone richer. The reality is that it did not make everyone equally rich so discontent is natural. Worse, power spheres exploit this so they can get more powerful (and richer). So Rust-Belt yokels eat this stuff up and start to dismantle “the system”, which includes democracy apparently. The reality is Trump is a symptom, not a cause and I am not sure even they realize how dangerous this game they are playing is. So Ukraine happens and becomes a symbol of a “war for, and against, the system.” It isn’t about the fact that killing innocent Ukrainians is wrong - hell if morales like human life mattered we wouldn’t have Gaza. No, Ukraine is all about “the system” and both sides appear to be waging it viewed through that lens. Russia needs to show that they are going to play by their own rules, but not completely break themselves. One could ask “why is Russia fighting this war by half measures?” Do they enjoy a quagmire? No, Putin understands what he has gotten himself into and is adopting a slow burn strategy, hoping we will get distracted and caught up in our own nonsense…and he might be right. The rest of the West is trying to step up, but frankly we have grown awfully fat, dumb and happy on the back of the US - who now is having a bipolar fit. In the end, we can live with a fallen Ukraine. We can shore up the borders and lock Russia out. We can live with a partial victory in Ukraine, do we really care about Crimea, LNR and DNR? No, we did not in ‘14 and we don’t now. We can’t live with a completely imploded Russia. Those are where the real risks lie. Too many unknowns that could really break the system. So we wind up with a half hearted war designed to punish Russia for challenging the system but not destroy them. Ukraine is, and I am being brutally honest here, is almost secondary to the entire conversation. It was simply a very unfortunate country where both sides could try and prove a point. We love Ukraine all of a sudden because they are an opportunity to show that 1) Russia was wrong to challenge the system, and 2) the system still works. I strongly suspect this is why this war is also so muddled in military circles. We are watching a war to defend the system..that is demonstrating the weaknesses of our own military system at the same time. So we put blinders on and try to pretend it isn’t happening. Our military power has to still be relevant…otherwise how can we defend the system? So to answer your question, “yes, the US and the West know exactly how important Ukraine really is and are fighting this war based on that calculus.” The answer however is “somewhat important”. We care and feel bad, but care much more about our own issues. Putin read the short game about as wrong as one can. He may have read the long game extremely well. The way to beat the West is not outright confrontation, it is apathy. 2 years is forever for a culture addicted to clicks and flashing lights. Putin’s off ramp is being able to draw a victory line somewhere of his choosing and he is shooting for that. And we might just let him get there. Now I would not start freaking out and worry about a second attack on Kyiv. Something that dramatic might actually get our attention again. No, this needs to become a boring war - I am starting to think Putin’s Tucker Carlson interview was smarter than we thought. What better way to get Western audiences to yawn and start to change the channel than a history lesson?

True on capacity/capability, however, this war is two years old. Even if Russia was in denial for the first year, why did they not go for an overmatch mobilization a year ago? I think Russia lacks the cohesive will to mass mobilize and Putin knows it. This is why he is pulling wasters, criminals and merchs. He cannot mobilize 2 million men without hitting the Russian people where they live. He can’t do that without convincing them that they must fight or Russia is lost. Even the most nationalistic twit in Russia can see that this is a discretionary expeditionary war. Ukraine is not central to the survival of Russia as a nation state. It is central to survival of Putin, but that only goes so far. So back to western involvement - this is a tricky and slippery slope. We know Putin is already saying we have divisions in Ukraine, but he also knows large swaths of the Russian people don’t believe the state information apparatus. If we go and give them hard proof the costs could be significant, and I am not talking about nukes. If Russia buys into this war fully we could see significant mobilization. Given how fragile western support is, that could be a serious problem. The horrible truth is that Ukraine is important, but not that important to a significant swath of the West. The political levels in the West have been managing this pretty much from day 1. The Russian invasion is an attack to global order but many westerners ask “ok, but what has the global order really done for me?” And given the wing nut drive bys we have seen here on the forum trying to explain that to them is tilting at windmills. So the western powers have been slowly leaning in and pushing envelopes. Pushing hard enough to slowly boil Russia but not so hard as to get them unified. And Russia has been doing the exact opposite - drag this thing out until we change the channel. Make it look like Iraq or Afghanistan, even if it costs Russia another problem 100k dead. And it will all come down to who gives out first. In the West it will end with a whimper as we run back to NATO lines and shore up a new Iron Curtain. For Russia it could be a brutal collapse with a lot of nuclear weapons in the wind (the other awkward reality those who want to see Russia collapse never seem to answer). Down the middle of this entire mess is a very small window of “just enough, just in time” which I suspect we are really aiming at.

There is one glaring flaw in this entire line of thinking - Russia has not fully mobilized. If Russia were truly convinced that this was existential then why are there not 2-3 million troops in Ukraine right now? This is the awkward question both the "West is weak and holding itself back because it is jumping at ghosts" and "Russia does not care what you think, they are all in already" camps have never really answered. What is restraining Russia right now? Are they deterred by threat of western escalation? Are they deterred by maybe less than iron public support? In the end it does not matter because this line of thinking is sucking and blowing at the same time: The West is weak, Russia is strong - but for "reasons" Russia is not going all in on this war. Either Putin has not convinced his population that this is an existential war for them. Or he is deterred from full mobilization by western power. No matter which, blowing an A50 out of the sky with a western system gets us exactly one A50, and Putin a bag of reasons to convince his own people to really get engaged.

Given the uptick in aircraft losses on the Russian side, I am starting to wonder if Ukraine is not better resourced than we think for strategic strikes. The most in-demand resource for strategic strike is intel. Once you know exactly where that A-50 is going to be on a Fri night, you only need a few missiles (or even an attack on the ground) by a small force. Kinda interested to see the cyber story in this war, which has been notably silent.

A campaign would normally be more than one capability. So airborne radar, other systems that support and enable that capability, the things all that radar data flows into and any other capability that can do what airborne radars can do. This would basically be a campaign against Russia operational ISR in the Region. I mean it is all good but systemic coordinated targeting of a broader system of capabilities is the next logical step. But is is expensive and hard. Ukraine is definitely going after Russian airpower these last few weeks. To the point that it is beginning to feel designed as opposed to opportunistic.

That is plausible as an explanation. Or perhaps a combination of a SOF MANPAD action with an S-200 salvo. Regardless it has to be driving the Russians crazy and has reinforced air denial within Russia itself. The ground war may have devolved into a grinding stalemate but Ukraine has definitely upped its strategic strike game. They need to move on from demonstrations though and onto campaigning to impact Russian options spaces.

Means, motive, opportunity, risk. Means, yes but stealth does not mean invisible so risk there. Motive, may be a good way to send a message but Russia would need to know a western power did it or the message to “back off” is lost. Opportunity, possibly. Risk…madness. We are talking about direct western military action against Russia. That is an act of war. The US or UK would need to be ready to get caught and essentially give Russia and their allies permission to escalate. I mean what would we do if Russians actually killed an AWAC trying to send us a message? Given the risks, the demonstration itself is not worth it. Sure we bag an A-50 but Putin get his dream scenario for convincing his own people that this whole thing is an existential war for Russia against western powers. He can take this to China and Iran as a blank check and this whole thing becomes World Proxy War One. Cool Tom Clancy novel plot line but entirely fictional.

Dude, take your meds or something. You have come out swinging on a number of issues even when it was clear you were way off base. You were going after folks on that A-50 when it was clear that you were looking at an older incident - and not the one with the posted video from the last 24-48 hours. Now you are coming at someone else for whatever the hell this is about…gee you think Russian troops could not get their hands on Ukrainian coveralls? Kinophile commented on how the Russian Army has brutal practices and you object…so your position is that the Russian Army does not have brutal practices? Based what? The sign translation? You seem to be in a fighting mood for the sake of simply fighting. Seriously go to a bar and get smacked around, get it out of your system and then come back.

Kinda feels like a deep strike op. Hitting on multiple levels. Unless they sent in Starstreak which can hit up to 20k feet. Or maybe something we haven’t seen yet.

Unless it was landing or on approach...exactly where I would put SOF teams with MANPADs.

I do not think we are talking about the same incident. The video above reports to show a low level A-50 being shot down. It fires off a string of flares, which are not normally a counter for long range radar guided systems. Hence Steve's MANPAD theory - which would make some sense given the video.

That would explain the flares. And that video seemed fairly low level.

I am not sure we have enough evidence to call "coup". That is normally done with internal security services and the military. There is no evidence the UA was directly involved but there may have been passive insiders. The initial op was supposed to Afghanistan in 1980 - in some ways it looks like they simply pull that one out of a drawer. Massive multi-front/axis roll over with deep strike airborne air assault at the capital. I honestly do not think they expected resistance in Eastern Ukraine, let alone what they got. I have a hypothesis that it was IT that enabled the resistance happen. Strikes like this depend on isolating people from each other, so they go hide in their houses. If people feel connected and can communicate, they rally together. That is what we saw back in Feb/Mar '22 and they did a lot of that over cell/internet (hell Haiduk was broadcasting the whole time). People could see others a few towns over resisting, which reinforced their own resistance. The UA rolled with this instead of telling people to "stay in your homes, we will take care of it" which would have been a mistake. The UA enfranchised - and in doing so, empowered, local resistance. That created friction for the RA everywhere, all at once. Bog down and start losing important stuff to UA SOF...run out of gas and walk home... And that is how Russia lost the war. Now this war needs to stay lost for them.

I am not sure if anyone has The Plan because that would probably be held by captured intel, piecing together what they have pull in, so classified. This one was written in Jan 22, and damn if it did not call the ball - these guys had to be hooked in because this is basically what happened...and then didn't. https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220113_Wasielewski_Jones_RussiaUkraine.pdf?VersionId=11uM1oad1HbgqtEL7bwkMjYzNHThWW8I And Ch 1 of this doc lays it out pretty well too. https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf I think the May timeline to do the whole thing is realistic, or at least be at a point to declare victory of some sort. As per that CSIS doc they really opened with 2a, which I suspect that is what they wanted in 10 days. The follow on ops (2b and 2c) realistically would be another 2 months as resistance increased in the West, backed by western powers. They also would have had to have been deliberate and cautious the closer to the Polish border they got. My bet it was 7-10 days for political decapitation and securing Kyiv along with other power nodes in the East, the theory was likely once Kyiv fell places like Kharkiv would not hold out for long. That RUSI Unconventional Operations piece outlines what the occupation/pacification plan was and it is pretty damned brutal.

The Exec sum points hold up for the most part. I don't think they had a "2 day" plan...Ukraine is a big country. But the whole thing was supposed to be over in a week or two. I think they may have been ready for resistance in Western Ukraine in the longer run but more insurgency. They had one helluva nasty occupation plan : https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-russias-unconventional-operations-during-russo-ukrainian-war-february-2022

I can think of about a half dozen reasons why this is a terrible idea. Just give the guys the damned dumb blasty shotgun.

None shall pass!

That is not really "data", those are anecdotes. The fact that we have drones chasing individual soldiers with even half decent effects (in a four drone strike, I count two cas) is mind boggling. Of course they are just going to get more effective as people figure out better ways to employ and arm them. I think this shotgun thing will work and what is needed right now. But then someone will figure out stand off/EFP, but this is the nature of things.