Holien

OK thanks for the explanation I agree that Ukraine will not be invading Russia but I disagree that they are on a leash as that implies they are being walked / controlled by someone and I see no one controlling them, people might request they don't do certain things with weapons they have generously given them. Anyway let's hope Russia is undergoing some change of leadership.

Can the day get any better?

Hmmm I did not see Ian write that, you seem to be making things up, perhaps a bit like the leash comment. How is Ukraine on a leash? I would love to see a full explanation of that comment from you. What have I missed about the US relationship with Ukraine?

Excellent article and a good reminder on how to interpret maps. Thanks for posting it here.

Hi to help me understand can you kindly put a bit more detail into this? I thought he stopped the Russian forces from getting involved in many external situations.

A bit of people power confronting Russians abroad.

I think you have to view him and some folk through the lense of how they have served and there background. Dannatt reached the top of a very slippery pole through long service in the British military. The skill required to do that is very different than what is needed as a Captain, Major etc... and while I don't like his politics he did serve actively our country so he deserves some respect for that. As mentioned in a previous post when you get to the top the chances are that you don't always study the detail and are not aware of what is happening in the weeds. (A great general is BTW, and I don't think he was a great general). So I don't think he follows this thread and gives as much time to understanding the low level stuff as perhaps he should. This thread does and it has come to a different view because of it and so far the thread has been more right than wrong on the outcomes. Also you have to add in that folk when dealing with the media need to take a position and be very clear and concise with a simple POV. Media don't ask you back to talk (and pay expenses) if you are full of greys, rather than blacks and whites when talking. So for Dannatt or anyone else to say that Ukraine will win it is tough to point to anything to say clearly why that will happen. He is working with an outdated conceptual model and it will take time for him to change that view. That is why the work of The Capt is so important and he needs to change views of these old school warriors...

With a nice sprinkle of Oswald Mosely. Ok so I am a bit pissed off with this and would ask you two to reconsider, I can kinda forgive MikeyD as I sort of get where he is coming from but Dan you have added nothing and just attacked a UK Public Servant who has given a good part of his life to protecting the UK and Europe and working with America. So shame on both of you.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dannatt Before you start slagging off people that don't agree with your views please take a look at the whole and if you do have any evidence that he is a racist I would love to see it. So YES he is old school and you have to view the context of these senior leaders they don't always do detail and were very used to a life at the top being fed information to make the key choices on what to do. He could well be wrong about the outcome of the war as he does not have the detail he once had access to. He is of course has life experience to draw upon which we don't have the same as him. Unless you served at the top of your armed forces? What we want is a quick end to this war and from following here I am hopeful that will happen but it has not happened yet and for me the next phase is key to see if Ukraine can pull off a major victory and force Russia out of say Kherson. This would be a good indication that they can turn the tables on Russia and win the war quickly. Of course Kherson could all be a diversion and they have another target, that would be good too but so far we have not seen it and I wait in hope and keep looking at the Tea Leafs for signs...

I attended that session and was waiting for the slide set to be released. Thanks for highlighting it.

Not sure what the above picture is showing? Is it satellite dropping a bomb?

Hmmm do we know where exactly they aimed at? This Fuel depot would have made a nice target too? Anyway I know I am being super picky but we can't let you get too cocky? I guess we will find out in a few years what the exact target co-ordinates were, either way it did it's job...

I have seen this explained as follows: - You needed a camera pointed in exact right place and it only just caught an image. We might yet see an image when security cameras are checked?

Are we fed up with folk doing analysis on the kick to "Putins Balls?" https://planesandstuff.wordpress.com/2022/08/11/novofedorivka-saki-air-base-attack-satellite-imagery-the-aftermath/ Nothing much new to add but some good photo's and more ID'ing of areas on the airfield. This link was nestled within the one above but has nice images and one of destroyed plane. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction-seen-after-blasts-at-russian-base-in-crimea

Hmmm well through the detailed analysis kindly done by @Grigb I think we can say they did survive but had to pull back slightly. His last post was very amusing with the journalist travelling down a contested road... The problem is people don't have the time to get into the weeds to fully understand what happened at say Pisky and having the skills and time to do that analysis before writing something.

Yep I don't doubt that and thanks to @The_Capt for the first plausible explanation as lucky for me don't get to be near too many loud bangs of this nature

Well if you compare what happened to the same plane type of their neighbors they are. Of course I don't think they will be flying anytime soon, especially if they are made of concrete... just an oddity that I am hoping someone can explain. In the grand scheme of things it really does not matter the overall effect is the same just intrigued...

Just edited image to show the planes I am just not understanding why they seem to be in better shape than the others...

Ok concrete would perhaps explain the lack of being affected by the blast. I will have to google to see some. The down side for conrete is they are a bitch to move around and any good analysis would see those planes never move... Mind you based on the Russian half arse philosophy they might just go "good enough"... Hmmm first hit on google... https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/world/europe/russia-decoy-weapon.html So these would just be destoyed... Hmmm it gets better https://www.smobserved.com/story/2022/04/22/politics/much-of-russias-air-force-appears-to-be-made-of-styrofoam-yes-thats-right-fake-planes/6691.html So I am still puzzled why that jet has not been blown backward by the blast in front of it. I don't buy it was moved into area after blast...

Not so sure as I can think of better places to hit within the airfield, but super accurate when compared vs Russian attacks.

OK I very much want these images to be true but riddle me this why is the plane close to the "workshop" crater with an open bay front not pushed back or even over edge of rear blast wall? I get the white one nearby being protected but not the one immediately opposite the blast?

@Grigb you are going to be busy... Thanks for your continued information and translation superb job and hugely appreciated by me and no doubt everyone else.

Just an accident, nothing to see here move along.... Hehe Hehe

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/stop-tiptoeing-around-russia An interesting read and review of past policy. "The United States was not necessarily wrong to pursue a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia. Where it erred was in continuing to pursue this objective long after there was no realistic chance of success, which should have been obvious by 2004, when Russia interfered in Ukraine’s elections on behalf of its preferred candidate, or at the very latest by 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia. Instead of looking for more cooperative partners, however, U.S. policymakers continued their futile courtship of Kremlin leadership. As a result, they passed up opportunities to invest in the U.S. relationship with Ukraine, which was always a more promising engine of democratization in the region." Chinese relations and foreign policy might need tweaking? Another tightrope that there is no easy way to cross and falling off it will be deeply painful. I am ever grateful that America is supporting Ukraine as they have been, even if its not as much as they need to end this quickly.

This popped up on another site I follow and seems a pretty good explanation of what has been done with the AGM-88 The chap seems to have a good knowledge of what the different uses are and what is possible if attached to a non NATO plane. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556751670402596865

Yep an interesting insight well worth a read. Thanks