Undaunted

Not sure if this has been discussed.
In Ukraine:
Oct 6: Russian began bombarding the Avdiivka area.
Oct 10: Russian started major ground attack around Avdiivka.
In the Middle-East:
Oct 2: Allegedly at a Beirut meeting Iran  gave Hamas the green light launch attack on Israel, according to WSJ and other news outlets.
Oct 7: Hamas attacked Israel
If both of these were carefully planned offensives, their timing seems too much to be a coincidence, and begs the questions
- Did Hamas knew the Russian plan, and vice versa?
- Were they meant to be simultaneous to amplify their morale impact, to overwhelm Western reaction, and/or to achieve other effects?
- Was one of them meant to be a diversionary attack for the other?
- Or was one side just wanted take advantage of the chaos it think the other offensive would create?
- For Hamas, their attack was certainly special enough for them to seek external coordination or special timing, but for Russian, was the Avdiivka offensive special enough?
This is all conjecture, but I think it is interesting to think about.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44775604/air-to-air-missiles-shooting-at-russia-helicopters-drones-in-ukraine/
Seems like ASRAAM on truck is a viable counter to Ka-52s.

Back in the day the British aimed to use Sherman flails in troop-lots. Basically, three tanks flailing adjacent lanes, although each one slightly behind and overlapping the one in front, so echeloned to the left or right. The other two flails in the troop stood by to immediately replace casualties. In the ideal case you'd get a breach some 6m wide.
Also, as the Capt has pointed out and the Ukrainians attempted the other day, generally there will be multiple (at least two) lanes being pushed at the same time, at least 100m apart.

An interesting but very long interview with the famous wargame designer Mark Herman, on Nov 3, 2022, a bout a week before Russian withdrew from Kherson.
The discussion jumps between wargame design, his works at Pentagon, Ukraine and Taiwan, etc..  Here are the bits related to Ukraine, but I am sure I missed some.
27:45 about munition based warfare
55:35 about battle at the Antonov airport, suggesting he is working on a game about it
57:45 about his initial opinion about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Ukraine-Russia historical tie
1:02:00 about where Ukraine war is heading
1:07:45 about infowar and cyberwar
1:12:00 about cooperations between state and non-state actors with varying levels of capabilities and interests
1:23:00 about Russian mobilization
1:25:00 about possbility of an army coup in Russia
1:27:40 about whether nuclear-armed Russia can lose
1:51:00 about possbility of Ukraine war, potential Taiwan war, Korea situation to connect into a global conflict
1:53:40 about recurrence of bad leaders like Putin Xi Hitler
2:19:10 about strategic surprise and nuclear weapons

Hello, I used to lurk these forums in the CMx1 days.  Thanks everyone for the great thread, I did not remember to check here until a few hundred pages in.  (Kinda sad to see a few familiar names permabanned or even passed away, RIP Michael Emrys).
As far as I can tell, Ukrainian's will to fight remain very strong.  Without full mobilization, Russians probably cannot militarily win as long as Western support persists.  At this point Russian's main mean to win is more like to wear down the will of the West, and we are just beginning to see the attrition on that front in the form of inflation and economic woes.  I think in some European countries it has been the public opinion that drags their government forward, so it is relevant to track the public opinion.  This is an interesting poll report:
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/
Regarding China, don't overestimate the factor of economic concerns in China's policy and behavior.  In the past few years it has been making a sharp turn to the left and steadily moving towards totalitarianism.  I think the ultimate goal of the CCP is not money, or well being of the people, or even nationalism.  It is the eternal survival of the CCP and its eternal grip on the control over China.  Economy is one important factor, but "national security" has been the keyword of the day for the past few years.
A thing of note is that in the later half of this year, Xi Jinping will seek a third term and possibly a term for life.  There has been speculation that Xi will seek to "resolve" the Taiwan question during his term, as well as speculation that China will attack in the next few years (not necessarily full invasion, possibly attacking outlying islands like Kinmen/Matsu or some islands in South China Sea that is controlled by Taiwan.  When a few months ago some unconfirmed FSB letters mentioned that China was to attack Taiwan some time this year, I think it was not far-fetched (or at least it is not far-fetched that China might led Russia to think they are doing it this year instead of the next).
There is a worrying trend that many in China seems to think that a war with US is inevitable, that the West is in decline and China should push US influence out of the western Pacific.  In that line of thought, a defeated Russia is not in the interest of China, and instead if the West finishes off Russia then they will threaten China through defeat in detail.  In some sense it is similiar to Russia's stance, that you threaten their national security by merely existing.
The fierce resistance of Ukraine and unexpected solidarity of the West in this war probably stunned China, but recently tension around Taiwan intensify again, and it has been aggressively diplomatically pushing into the Pacific (it got sort of a foothold in Solomon Islands and unsuccessfully strike a deal with a group of Pacific states).  Maybe CCP smells blood and thinks the West is weakening.
Apparently there is no one in China that can keep Xi in check, because everyone high up was more or less corrupt in the past and vulnerable to Xi's weaponized anti-corruption campaigns, and they are especially heavily monitored under state surveillance.  He grew up during cultural revolution and is fond of it as well as Mao himself, so better don't count on his sanity.
Xi has just signed a "outline of non-war military operations".  Sounds familiar?  It is supposed to provide a legal basis for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “safeguard China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests".
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/tensions-heighten-in-taiwan-strait-as-china-acts-to-extend-military-operations
China a few days ago claimed that Taiwan Strait is not international waters.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-strait-is-an-international-waterway-taipei-says-rebuff-china-2022-06-14/
Reuters had an interesting piece on the wargaming the Battle for Taiwan
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-wargames/
I haven't read the rest of the series but it seems interesting
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/taiwan-china/
 

Hello, I used to lurk these forums in the CMx1 days.  Thanks everyone for the great thread, I did not remember to check here until a few hundred pages in.  (Kinda sad to see a few familiar names permabanned or even passed away, RIP Michael Emrys).
As far as I can tell, Ukrainian's will to fight remain very strong.  Without full mobilization, Russians probably cannot militarily win as long as Western support persists.  At this point Russian's main mean to win is more like to wear down the will of the West, and we are just beginning to see the attrition on that front in the form of inflation and economic woes.  I think in some European countries it has been the public opinion that drags their government forward, so it is relevant to track the public opinion.  This is an interesting poll report:
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/
Regarding China, don't overestimate the factor of economic concerns in China's policy and behavior.  In the past few years it has been making a sharp turn to the left and steadily moving towards totalitarianism.  I think the ultimate goal of the CCP is not money, or well being of the people, or even nationalism.  It is the eternal survival of the CCP and its eternal grip on the control over China.  Economy is one important factor, but "national security" has been the keyword of the day for the past few years.
A thing of note is that in the later half of this year, Xi Jinping will seek a third term and possibly a term for life.  There has been speculation that Xi will seek to "resolve" the Taiwan question during his term, as well as speculation that China will attack in the next few years (not necessarily full invasion, possibly attacking outlying islands like Kinmen/Matsu or some islands in South China Sea that is controlled by Taiwan.  When a few months ago some unconfirmed FSB letters mentioned that China was to attack Taiwan some time this year, I think it was not far-fetched (or at least it is not far-fetched that China might led Russia to think they are doing it this year instead of the next).
There is a worrying trend that many in China seems to think that a war with US is inevitable, that the West is in decline and China should push US influence out of the western Pacific.  In that line of thought, a defeated Russia is not in the interest of China, and instead if the West finishes off Russia then they will threaten China through defeat in detail.  In some sense it is similiar to Russia's stance, that you threaten their national security by merely existing.
The fierce resistance of Ukraine and unexpected solidarity of the West in this war probably stunned China, but recently tension around Taiwan intensify again, and it has been aggressively diplomatically pushing into the Pacific (it got sort of a foothold in Solomon Islands and unsuccessfully strike a deal with a group of Pacific states).  Maybe CCP smells blood and thinks the West is weakening.
Apparently there is no one in China that can keep Xi in check, because everyone high up was more or less corrupt in the past and vulnerable to Xi's weaponized anti-corruption campaigns, and they are especially heavily monitored under state surveillance.  He grew up during cultural revolution and is fond of it as well as Mao himself, so better don't count on his sanity.
Xi has just signed a "outline of non-war military operations".  Sounds familiar?  It is supposed to provide a legal basis for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “safeguard China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests".
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/tensions-heighten-in-taiwan-strait-as-china-acts-to-extend-military-operations
China a few days ago claimed that Taiwan Strait is not international waters.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-strait-is-an-international-waterway-taipei-says-rebuff-china-2022-06-14/
Reuters had an interesting piece on the wargaming the Battle for Taiwan
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-wargames/
I haven't read the rest of the series but it seems interesting
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/taiwan-china/
 

Hello, I used to lurk these forums in the CMx1 days.  Thanks everyone for the great thread, I did not remember to check here until a few hundred pages in.  (Kinda sad to see a few familiar names permabanned or even passed away, RIP Michael Emrys).
As far as I can tell, Ukrainian's will to fight remain very strong.  Without full mobilization, Russians probably cannot militarily win as long as Western support persists.  At this point Russian's main mean to win is more like to wear down the will of the West, and we are just beginning to see the attrition on that front in the form of inflation and economic woes.  I think in some European countries it has been the public opinion that drags their government forward, so it is relevant to track the public opinion.  This is an interesting poll report:
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/
Regarding China, don't overestimate the factor of economic concerns in China's policy and behavior.  In the past few years it has been making a sharp turn to the left and steadily moving towards totalitarianism.  I think the ultimate goal of the CCP is not money, or well being of the people, or even nationalism.  It is the eternal survival of the CCP and its eternal grip on the control over China.  Economy is one important factor, but "national security" has been the keyword of the day for the past few years.
A thing of note is that in the later half of this year, Xi Jinping will seek a third term and possibly a term for life.  There has been speculation that Xi will seek to "resolve" the Taiwan question during his term, as well as speculation that China will attack in the next few years (not necessarily full invasion, possibly attacking outlying islands like Kinmen/Matsu or some islands in South China Sea that is controlled by Taiwan.  When a few months ago some unconfirmed FSB letters mentioned that China was to attack Taiwan some time this year, I think it was not far-fetched (or at least it is not far-fetched that China might led Russia to think they are doing it this year instead of the next).
There is a worrying trend that many in China seems to think that a war with US is inevitable, that the West is in decline and China should push US influence out of the western Pacific.  In that line of thought, a defeated Russia is not in the interest of China, and instead if the West finishes off Russia then they will threaten China through defeat in detail.  In some sense it is similiar to Russia's stance, that you threaten their national security by merely existing.
The fierce resistance of Ukraine and unexpected solidarity of the West in this war probably stunned China, but recently tension around Taiwan intensify again, and it has been aggressively diplomatically pushing into the Pacific (it got sort of a foothold in Solomon Islands and unsuccessfully strike a deal with a group of Pacific states).  Maybe CCP smells blood and thinks the West is weakening.
Apparently there is no one in China that can keep Xi in check, because everyone high up was more or less corrupt in the past and vulnerable to Xi's weaponized anti-corruption campaigns, and they are especially heavily monitored under state surveillance.  He grew up during cultural revolution and is fond of it as well as Mao himself, so better don't count on his sanity.
Xi has just signed a "outline of non-war military operations".  Sounds familiar?  It is supposed to provide a legal basis for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “safeguard China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests".
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/tensions-heighten-in-taiwan-strait-as-china-acts-to-extend-military-operations
China a few days ago claimed that Taiwan Strait is not international waters.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-strait-is-an-international-waterway-taipei-says-rebuff-china-2022-06-14/
Reuters had an interesting piece on the wargaming the Battle for Taiwan
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-wargames/
I haven't read the rest of the series but it seems interesting
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/taiwan-china/
 

Hello, I used to lurk these forums in the CMx1 days.  Thanks everyone for the great thread, I did not remember to check here until a few hundred pages in.  (Kinda sad to see a few familiar names permabanned or even passed away, RIP Michael Emrys).
As far as I can tell, Ukrainian's will to fight remain very strong.  Without full mobilization, Russians probably cannot militarily win as long as Western support persists.  At this point Russian's main mean to win is more like to wear down the will of the West, and we are just beginning to see the attrition on that front in the form of inflation and economic woes.  I think in some European countries it has been the public opinion that drags their government forward, so it is relevant to track the public opinion.  This is an interesting poll report:
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/
Regarding China, don't overestimate the factor of economic concerns in China's policy and behavior.  In the past few years it has been making a sharp turn to the left and steadily moving towards totalitarianism.  I think the ultimate goal of the CCP is not money, or well being of the people, or even nationalism.  It is the eternal survival of the CCP and its eternal grip on the control over China.  Economy is one important factor, but "national security" has been the keyword of the day for the past few years.
A thing of note is that in the later half of this year, Xi Jinping will seek a third term and possibly a term for life.  There has been speculation that Xi will seek to "resolve" the Taiwan question during his term, as well as speculation that China will attack in the next few years (not necessarily full invasion, possibly attacking outlying islands like Kinmen/Matsu or some islands in South China Sea that is controlled by Taiwan.  When a few months ago some unconfirmed FSB letters mentioned that China was to attack Taiwan some time this year, I think it was not far-fetched (or at least it is not far-fetched that China might led Russia to think they are doing it this year instead of the next).
There is a worrying trend that many in China seems to think that a war with US is inevitable, that the West is in decline and China should push US influence out of the western Pacific.  In that line of thought, a defeated Russia is not in the interest of China, and instead if the West finishes off Russia then they will threaten China through defeat in detail.  In some sense it is similiar to Russia's stance, that you threaten their national security by merely existing.
The fierce resistance of Ukraine and unexpected solidarity of the West in this war probably stunned China, but recently tension around Taiwan intensify again, and it has been aggressively diplomatically pushing into the Pacific (it got sort of a foothold in Solomon Islands and unsuccessfully strike a deal with a group of Pacific states).  Maybe CCP smells blood and thinks the West is weakening.
Apparently there is no one in China that can keep Xi in check, because everyone high up was more or less corrupt in the past and vulnerable to Xi's weaponized anti-corruption campaigns, and they are especially heavily monitored under state surveillance.  He grew up during cultural revolution and is fond of it as well as Mao himself, so better don't count on his sanity.
Xi has just signed a "outline of non-war military operations".  Sounds familiar?  It is supposed to provide a legal basis for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “safeguard China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests".
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/tensions-heighten-in-taiwan-strait-as-china-acts-to-extend-military-operations
China a few days ago claimed that Taiwan Strait is not international waters.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-strait-is-an-international-waterway-taipei-says-rebuff-china-2022-06-14/
Reuters had an interesting piece on the wargaming the Battle for Taiwan
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-wargames/
I haven't read the rest of the series but it seems interesting
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/taiwan-china/