Syria Phase 4

[Clavicula_Nox]

This was brought up in another thread, and I started thinking about it.

What would the effects of a NATO invasion be on Syria? The Region? Who would seize power? Who would "we" want to seize power? Would Hizbullah cross over from Lebanon after Syria's version of "Mission Accomplished"?

I know absolutely nothing about this country apart from some of the mini-geography lessons I have received from this game.

[Sgt Joch]

or maybe step back and ask if an invasion would make sense in the first place.

Bashar Assad is a dictator, but a secular one. He is not an extremist or a religious fanatic. He is a member of the Alawi sect, which appears to be an offshoot of the Shiite religion, although interpretation differ on this point, while his wife is a Sunni who was raised in england. He has managed to keep the country stable, even though Syria has its own problems with muslim extremists. His actions, even the alliance with Iran and support of Hizbollah in Lebanon, are all logical decisions designed to keep the Assad family in power in Damascus. He is the type of dictator western countries would have been very happy to have in power during the cold war.

Obviously, western pinkos are always hoping that any country can be turned into a western style liberal democracy, but the main and most organized opposition group is the Muslim Brotherhood which is more of an islamic organization, although again interpretation differs on that point, since they pay lip service to democratic reforms.

IMHO, the results of an overthrow of the Assad family, either before or as a result of a NATO invasion, would be as unpredictable as what has happened in Iraq since 2003, but the most likely scenarios are:

1. civil strife/war leading to a weak/unstable democracy, like in Afghanistan/Iraq in 2009;or

2. civil strife/war leading to a Islamic dictatorship, like Afghanistan 1996-2001;

[hcrof]

Apparently Bashar is also a qualified eye doctor! He trained in London

I like Syria as a country and very much enjoyed my brief visit to it. The people are lovely and the food is excellent. All in all it would be a massive shame to invade the place

[Splinty]

Under the scenario put forward in CMSF, I doubt Assad would be in power at the time of the WMD incidents that lead to the invasion. I don't beleive the Syrian Ba'ath party or Assad himself would be that stupid.

[Guest]

If Karzai and Chalabi are any guide, the replacement would be a weak-willed and corrupt man with no significant qualities apart from frustrated political aspirations.

Effects: destabilize Hezbollah and the flow of arms out of Syria (which might actually have positive effects for Lebanon), possibly alienate Turkey, secure Iraq's western border, and... the Israelis claim Golan as a birthright and the UN decides in its favor. Oh, and probably enrich Jordan quite nicely. Kind of a net zero although world opinion would be in favor of the attackers so you probably come out on top.

As for pinkos - really? It seems to have been decidedly non-pinko folk involved in pro-democracy regime change of late.