Could Russia have won in 1941?

[With Clusters]

Don't know if I'd equate Nazi ideology with the "battle/martial qualities" of the Germans - they fought plenty hard in WW1 w/o being Nazis. But I do think Nazi ideology was the guiding force behind the German war aims of WWII. Take away the vile Nazi ideology and most likely there's no WWII at all...

[With Clusters]

Damnit, Woody beat me by mere seconds!

So uh, yeah, I agree with him...

[Testudo]

I think the Soviets launched enough offensives and counter offensives in 1941 to make this question not worth arguing about.

See for example, the history of the 6th MechCorps ,the most powerful in the Red Army (and more powerful than any German Panzergruppe) with over 1100 tanks including some 400 T34s and KVs, decimated in a couple of days by a single German infantry division, and 3 Stugs.

A better what-if would be, whether the results of such attack be better or worse than Barbarossa historically was.

[Woodey]

Agreed Testudo.

A surprise attack with the Germans off balance and part of their army otherwise occupied would have allowed the Soviets to make some good advances initially. This would have given the Russian leadership some unfounded confidence. More Red armies would have been fed into the assault in time for the German’s to do what they did very well indeed, a backhand blow against an overextended and depleted enemy.

My theory on the result is as I posted 5 or 6 posts ago.

[Corvidae]

with or without the facists in berlin,, the war would have happened anyway, If the comunists had won the 33 election, the peoples republic of germany would have gone against the traitor stalin to liberate russia, If the christian democrats had won the election, they would have invaded russia to end godless comunism, If hindenbergs military faction had won the election,they would have built a european aliance against russia,, If the monarchists had won,, they would have been honour bound to restore the czar,,, war between russia and germany was inevitable,, the only question was when and how,,

[Leopard_2]

war between russia and germany was inevitable,, the only question was when and how,,

Allow me to disagree. Not on the fact that war was, if not inevitable, then very hard to avoid, but on the reasons for it.

I don't think many people today actually realize what the Versailles treaty did to Germany. The reparations agreed upon by Chancellor Wirth on May 11th, 1921 would have resulted in Germany paying 132 billion Goldmark for 66 years - that's up until 1987! - plus paying 26% of its exports to the Allies.

Those weren't even the original demands (which were more like 300 billion Goldmark), and the Allies weren't friendly about it (occupying the Ruhrgebiet when their demands weren't met).

Not even counting in the great depression, it would have been very hard to have a people stand to such a treaty for two generations.

[Hinkar]

If the Germans had blunted their armoured pincers by attack solid defensive positions, and then been counterattacked by Soviet armoured forces things would have been very hairy for Germany- maybe by 1942 victory could have been Soviet.

[/QB]

Well, but the whole point of Blitzkrieg was not to attack solid defensive positions. You could say, the Russians would've won by 42 if the Russians had solid defences and the Germans attack was based on the Somme battle plan...too many "what ifs"...

Zhukov had a plan to attack in May 1941. It would have been a utter disaster, and worse than reality because 1) Stalin would have been the aggressor (not good for home propaganda if everything hit the fan) 2) the Russian armies would be more compacted in Poland/Prussia and easier for the Germans to encirle effectively...end result, Germans starting to attack Russia itself in June 41 with no Russian border armies to stop them...

[David I]

Sergei,

No.

DavidI

[Bannon DC]

The Russians would have gone down in flames.

They would most likely have taken much of Poland but their poor operational ability would have made THEIR blitz move at relative glacial pace. The Germans would have been able to chip pieces off this iceberg bit by bit as the Russians charged headlong into German defensive positions. They might come close to Berlin, but never enough to actually threaten. Poland would become a cratered landscape as the Germans formed a defensive line. Ultimately, the Germans would turn to the offensive and stab through Poland by way of Carpathian passes in Slovakia and bag the bulk of a massive routed army.

Politically, for the United States, this would relieve any pressure to go to war against German as Germany full attention immediately turned from Britain to defending themselves. Support of Britain may have become less secrative as the fear of provoking a war with Germany was significantly reduced. Indeed, the shoe would be on the other foot... German would be afraid to provoke the United States.

In Britain, the likelyhood of a true alliance would loose steam. Churchill despised Communism as much as he despised Facism. Remember, Churchill seriously considered war with the Russians when they invaded Finland. He wanted to send men and supplies by way of Norway and Sweden. With the pressure off on almost all fronts as German turned to fight in Poland, the Brits would have been able to get off their knees and rebuild their forces. Their defense would eventually stand firm and they could take some cheap shots at Germany in France and eventually return to the continent in some limited fashion.

Italy is a tough question. The Germans had to jump in and save them in Greece. Do the Germans throw the ball back to them and let the get chewed up in the mountains of Greece? Probably.

And the German "minors"? The probably prepare themselves for war. What if German takes a beating -- the Russians can turn on us. They sit on the fence until the steam has gone out of the Russian offensive and when Germany is able to take the offensive, they eagerly sign up to pick the bones of the corpse. Germany would have offered them very nice deals to get their armies into the fight.

Would the Germans have been able to eventually reach Moscow? If the Russian Communist govenment survived, I doubt the Germans would have been able to go that far. The Russians would have been mobilized, their factories cranking out weapons, they would have increased production of T-34s and modern aircraft, they would have gained battlefield and operational knowledge, plus they had massive resources of manpower to support loses. The Russians did have prepared defensive lines prior to the war they could have fallen back on. But -- they would have to do it alone -- no lend lease. And only allies of convience as the British would have given them tepid aid.

It certainly would have been a different war. The Soviets may have suffered similar losses materially and in manpower, but I think they could have spared much of their heartland and industrial areas the obliteration suffered in Barbarosa. They would have no obligation not to make a separate peace with the Germans.