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Fleet in being - any point?


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In a situation where you have a mobile reserve force (eg. a tank) that you are planning to commit into battle at a later stage, is it always the best solution to keep it hidden for as long as possible, or would you ever reveal it intentionally to your enemy, just to force him to be prepared to the possibility that you might charge out with it when not expected?

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In general I think it is a very powerful idiom to show units to the enemy to trigger reactions. Whatever his reaction his, it was not part of his original plan.

But of course this requires that you can change the position of this reserve unobserved after showing it.

And obviously they shouldn't die when you show them. Hit probablities in CM are pretty low, so it usually works, but there are exceptions. A direct-fire 150mm+ gun or SP gun can hit hard even on short exposure. Autocannons (Flak) can be nasty when they cause gun damage on AFVs or kill mortars, because their hit probablity is so high.

I play more TacOps these days and all this is more true. Your reserves may be discovered anyway via airstrikes, helicopter reconnaissance or scouts moving comparably fast in woods. And the bigger flatter maps usually allow you to shift your reserves elsewhere.

I also frequently change what is the reserve. The original reserve may be committed and I form a new one from other forces.

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Originally posted by Gen. Longstreet:

If I have an armored reserve left at a later stage of the battle, I prefer to keep it hidden.

There's no use in showing your 'little surprise' to the enemy.

Maybe so, if you intend to surprise the enemy. But from a psychological POV, it is much more evil to let it pop up first.

An example. I'm on the attack, I have one main axis of advance, maybe with a little decoy/scout force on the right. I have a Panzer IV at the back. If I show it to my enemy briefly from a distance, he may get a "tank", "Pz IV" or even "Tiger" id. Then I hide it again.

Now my enemy would start considering over different possibilities and ways to react. Maybe I'm going to place it into an overwatch position, in which case he has to be careful of not exposing his AFV's to it. Or maybe I'm planning to send that tank to support the secondary force, in which case he might commit some reserve to strengthen his AT capacity there, or at least position it in a way that allows a swift movement to both. All this will help me. And he still doesn't know what tank it was - if he sees a "Tiger", it could even be a Königstiger, he can't tell. Neither does he know if it's my only reserve (and probably it's not), so I still would have a moment of surprise on my side when I need it.

Finally, the element of surprise doesn't always work, it's up to plans. These both are forms of deceiving or confusing the enemy. They can even be combined: first keep it hidden, then at one point show it, finally commit it. But is there a clear-cut way to tell which is better and when?

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Looking at the principles of warfare, 'surprise' is one that features in most armies lists. (others are "concentration", "economy of force", "maintenance of morale", etc)

Based on that, it would seem like a good idea to keep them hidden until you intend to use them. It gives the enemy less of a chance to plan and prepare for your force, and will mentally unbalance him at a key point of the game when you do reveal them.

However, 'surprise' comes in many flavours. You could reveal them early, so the enemy knows you have them, and must adjust his plans to take them into account. Then you re-hide them, and only re-emerge later in the game at a time and place of your choosing. Similar overall effect to the above, but the mental unbalacing is spread over a lnger period rather than concentrated at a specific time and place.

Regards

JonS

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I would show reserves and then move them if that is possible with the specific terrain involved. As Redwolf described earlier, you really want to be able to shift them with minimal to no danger, or what is the point? They might as well be commited to battle.

If it is too dangerous due to terrain conditions to move them, I would say keep them hidden until they can cause the most materiel damage to the enemy.

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In a CM QB you know the points the enemy can spend.

Example 1:

You know he has 1500 pts, and the assets you already saw are roughly worth 1200 and you know where they are (or were only minutes ago). Now he shows you a tank worth 150pts.

Your plan was to shell a patch of woods void of any unit markers, but large enough for a company of infantry. Attack plan said use a full 150mm module, then overrun it with 4 plts.

Now you know there are 150pts or less in that woods.

Will you still use that plan? Will any change in plans be better for you as knowledge increases?

Example 2:

As above, the enemy force is identified except for some 300 pts. Your armor is back, unable to support a thrust by your grunts as LOS is blocked and you are not able to drive there fast&covered. In the next 3 minutes, the appearance of a tank in that region of the map would mean slaughter to your grunts should you decide to press the attack.

a) a tank appears far away

B) a tank appears in the region

What will you do? Will it affect your plan? Sure. You either abandon your plan or are more confident.

One of the most important factors in war is knowledge about the enemy. Any information you give to the enemy about your force structure will benefit the enemy.

Make sure he pays for that information

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  • either by forcing him to abandon a plan that was dangerous to you,</font>
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  • by tempting him do use a plan that suits you better (ie lure him into kill zones)</font>

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  • or by kills</font>

If you give away information for free, without having a specific plan of what you want the enemy to do with that info, you waste momentum.

Gruß

Joachim

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  • 2 weeks later...

I've won a lot of games based on showing my armor last. It gives an advantage in the armor vs armor fight, which can be decisive in the game as a whole.

One problem with giving a glimpse early: once a unit is spotted in CM, it will be respotted a lot easier. Even if it's in a totally different part of the map. That's just one of the rules of the game.

Originally posted by Scarhead:

If you give away information for free, without having a specific plan of what you want the enemy to do with that info, you waste momentum.

This is a good point. If your opponent does change his plan, it likely will become a better plan, based on more information. The only way it would work is if the information is misleading....if the tank is misIDed, or if you show him one heavy tank, and have a bunch of light tanks out there to make him think you have more of the same....but this seems a little fancy to work reliably and outweigh the disadvantages.

[ August 31, 2003, 02:04 AM: Message edited by: Frunze ]

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