Allied Turn one LC Gambit

[Curry]

I am in a game where I am the Axis and the Allies pulled the LC gambit on turn #1 and took the LC.

This has happened to me before and I completed the game and won. (followed Yoda-Terifs advice and over came the Dark Side )

Here is my trouble, I'm feeling its just too hard for this gambit to be successful that when it happens you really doubt your oppenants honesty in a PBEM game. Not so in a TCIP game. The reason is unless its someone you really trust how do you know the allies just didnt replay that first turn until his attack was successful?

So I play tested this out. In 20 attempts by the allies to take the LC on turn one. Using the British fighter and bomber and French fighter and two French armies and the French corps the Allies were only able to take the LC on turn #1 five times. That is only a 25% success rate. (Assuming the Axis moved over a HQ and all three Luftwaffe intercepted which is what usually will happen and did happen in my game).

It doesnt make any sense to me that the Allies would attack the LC on turn #1 with only a 25% success rate. If they fail the game is basically over. If they get lucky and take it the Axis can still win if it is an experienced Axis player.

I think this gambit should be banned from competive play in both the TCIP league and especially in the PBEM league. What do you think? Am I out of line with this thinking and is this a fair counter to the Axis cookie cutter strategy?

By the way, in the same game I am playing where the Allies successfully attack the LC on turn one I have worked my way slowly near Paris and its at the end of April or ealy May and guess what. British level 1 Jets show up on the scene. Has anyone ever seen British Jets show up at the end of April?

[ August 06, 2004, 10:54 AM: Message edited by: Curry ]

[JerseyJohn]

The matter of trust is always a hard one.

In one of my many AAR pbem games I had the Axis and took Poland on the first turn. It's comparatively rare but it happens. I considered starting over so as to avoid accusations that I'd cheated. Instead I posted the first turn as it happened and it lead to a different thread somebody else started on the best way to get Poland to fall on the initial turn.

Eventually I stopped playing due more to time considerations than anything else. I've avoided playing in leagues because I don't want to worry about the game in a competitive sense.

If the other player knows how to reload properly you'll never know whether or not he's cheating -- no, I don't know this because it's a tactic of mine, I've lost a lot of games and wouldn't have if I'd been reloading.

As to the LC gambit, I think I attempted it once or twice to see how it works so it's hard for me to venture an opinion here but as a rule of thumb you either trust your opponent or you don't play him. Those are the only real alternatives.

Banning the LC and Rome Gambits are common house rules. In my games, when I was still playing, I also included conducting non-Mediteranean amphibious operations between November and March.

[Curry]

Jersey, good points. I am very hesitant to accuse someone of cheating. Your case about Poland is a good example of why. But when you lose trust in a PBEM game then its just hard to continue, at least it is for me. In some games I have just resigned because I just was not sure. I like to win like everyone one else but its not everything to me so I would rather give up the win and post a loss rather than continue to play while fumming and wondering inside.

[JerseyJohn]

Curry, exactly and I agree 100%.

I've never felt that SC was a good game for League or any kind of competitive play. A while back Rambo set up some great indicators of what to watch out for -- guys who always have quick research advances, never have surprise contacts etc ... but even there, it's hard to judge; sometimes advances to come quickly and early. I used to have few surprise contacts because I'd buy a bomber or two and use them to reveal what was out in front of me. I still had surprise encounters, but not as many as other players.

In SC2 there are hard decisions to make regarding pbem reload precautions. As that will never happen in SC itself the game has to be and remains trust -- limiting it's role to a social rather than competitive game.

Which, no doubt, is what Hubert had in mind from the start.

Let me offer Hubert's response to that remark,

Hubert? ... " "

[SeaMonkey]

Curry,

I have had jets level 1 on the second turn as UK and more than a few times, but <30%, by April 40. That is with a first turn investment of one chit.

[Curry]

Jersey, Great line about Hubert's response. I was really laughing at that one.

Yes I slightly remember that post by Rambo now. I like you and many other experienced players have learned how to use air for recon so you dont get that many surprise contacts. But there are other ways that you really can suspect if someone is not playing on the up and up. Tech is one, but then again its nothing you can prove because tech is so crazy in this game. I know some players may have thought I was cheating because I had level 4 or 5 jets at the start of the Russian campaign. But if you play enough games like I do it happens, just like the games where I had no German tech in jets and 3 or 4 chits invested.

The bottom line is its like you said, PBEM cannot be a tournament type of game in SC. And that is a shame because you have to play TCIP instead for a tournament game but who has 15-20 hours to invest in one game. I dont that is why I play via email.

[Curry]

Seamonkey:

Curry,

I have had jets level 1 on the second turn as UK and more than a few times, but <30%, by April 40. That is with a first turn investment of one chit.

Thanks. Yes it can happen. Extreemly rare but it can happen.

[Kuniworth]

Good wrap out of this vital sc-burrito issue.

[Edwin P.]

It doesnt make any sense to me that the Allies would attack the LC on turn #1 with only a 25% success rate. If they fail the game is basically over. If they get lucky and take it the Axis can still win if it is an experienced Axis player.

Nothing in war is predicatable, if it was would Germany have invaded Norway or invaded Russia or taken Crete. The Allies attacking the LOC on Turn 1 is a gamble, one that has never worked for me but its livens things up to see a player using it, especially when I am Axis.

As for me, I don't think that it should be banned.

[jon_j_rambo]

If the Allies try the LC#1 & fail, they have just lost the game if they are playing me.

If it succeeds, there are ways to deal with it.

[Friendly Fire]

I'm playing a fun game (for me) at the moment

Allies took LC on turn 1 but left open the south maginot to do so. Naturally I grabbed those nice hexes on the far side of the Rhine and now it is a straight line to Paris, far out of the reach of the Royal Navy - albeit with a 500+ MPP swing against Axis (he got LC plunder, not me)

I'm with Rambo, if you are prepared to invade LC on turn 2 then you should be in good shape to counter turn 1 LC gambit...

[MichaelU]

In a game I'm currently playing I got tech 1 German fighters on the first turn I put a point into it. And it's TCP/IP so I can't be cheating. I guess it happens sometimes.