jon_j_rambo Posted October 30, 2004 Share Posted October 30, 2004 Anybody know what the odds are to get a dice resolution outside the predicted? I looked the rules quickly, didn't see anything. Everybody's All-American, Rambo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terif Posted October 30, 2004 Share Posted October 30, 2004 You have 3 possible results (-1, 0, +1) and AFAIK the chances for each one are the same (i.e. 1/3). So e.g. the chances for a polish breakthrough with only the 3 HQ supported ground units are 37,04 % . Naturally this is only the long-term chance. If you take only a single event, you can have a wide spread, so short term luck matters. Therefore if you play e.g. only mini-games, then luck can have a huge influence on the outcome . But if you play the whole game, then luck nearly doesn´t matter any more since it evens out in the long run and lastly only strategy determines who will win - that´s why my overall win percentage is >99% hehe - luck fortunately doesn´t matter in SC as long as you don´t surrender too early . And if you remember your 2 victories against me: you had good results, but that was not the real reason why you have won them. In the first game I had chosen the wrong strategy - again Spain gambit after I just did it several times and you were prepared to counter. In the second you developed a new strategy (your RACK-carrier strategy) and surprised me totally - was a really good move (I already sacrificed large parts of my fleet and didn´t do GLR research - the standard combat doctrine at that time, but RACK never worked again after I was prepared ). [ October 30, 2004, 03:21 AM: Message edited by: Terif ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 We will meet again Yoda...I'm not dead yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 @Yoda --- By the way, you seem a little touchy in this thread. I just wanted to know the percentages, no motivation or hidden agenda with anyone in particular, just a statistical question. I'm online if you wish to battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liam Posted October 30, 2004 Share Posted October 30, 2004 Luck does matter but of course skill does more, Mr. Terif is correcto Mundo plus awareness.. anyone with the same skill level that plays the same amount of games and practices the 'same types of strategies' given that luck doesn't matter will win about 50% as much... <problem is that most of us don't get the above opportunity, I know I have heard the Masters say as it really is...They don't tell you cause they want to win!> Including he's not tired and aware of what's going on in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 @Liam --- Nice Fonzie take, rack 'em I remember that as a kid on Tuesday's night, a different America back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hellraiser Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Ref luck in the long run evens out Tech wise it may be different sometimes (a little off topic): In a game vs DH (where both of us made a sh*tload of mistakes, but he made fewer than me ) my russians with 3 chits in AT and 3 chits in jets from the DoW turn, found themselves 2 years later having only lvl2 jets which is useless. The lvl 0 AT proved a game breaker because the reds had no tools to offset the axis xp. DH also got quite unlucky with techs as well, he had high lvl jets but on the ground not much. But Axis xp made it almost impossible for russians to counterstrike and, left aside some lousy spearhead panzers, momma russia was not able to kill much. Now, luck or no luck, one cannot expect to hold the front in russia only by spamming tons of low tech troops - DH killed 2-4 units per turn or something like that. As DH can confirm, i applied the standard defence, behind natural obstacles and all that but it was useless - unless you can counterattack with success, allies will lose. Probably in the majority of the games, luck evens out in the long run - but it depends what 'long run' means - if it means mid 1943, allies won't have the resources/time to use that tech. On topic - i fully agree with the lucky dice rolls evening out in the long run - they may seem very important in the first turns but overall it is not a game breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonheart Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 In many of my games i never got AT tech with russians. AT is the most important thing for them as the germans will normally use alot of tanks and on the other side the line is not breaking that easy. Cosim is rite if he says that the tech for russia can be a gamebreaker.....as when russia comes into game it needs quick research results otherwise it cant hold the germans back. But as in the overall game you have to be patient also with russia ..if you dont get the tech...then defend not the usual defence line but let them fall back even deep into russia.....ok you loose alot of MPP and germans get more but deep in the motherland the supply situation for the germans is bad...and then you can counter sucessfully. I won with this strategy a game where i was behind about 900 to 600 MPP. Tech is tricky and unpretictable but that´s SC. IMO a low tech game, where each side doesn´t have much luck, are the best and most exiting games....as the fighting with JET 5 is a game breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liam Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Jets 5 is expensive to reinforce. A few bad dice rolls here or there you can lose half your fighter fleet... That will be a morale breaker. Plus after that point, being the one with without air power you'r in deep trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonheart Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Originally posted by Liam: Jets 5 is expensive to reinforce. A few bad dice rolls here or there you can lose half your fighter fleet... That will be a morale breaker. Plus after that point, being the one with without air power you'r in deep trouble Jet 5 is not expensive to reinforce it is defenitely not to reinforce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted November 2, 2004 Author Share Posted November 2, 2004 We will not lie and we will not cheat! I have therefore steadfastly resolved never to come before this people and speak cheap smack. My game is on fire right now, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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