Jump to content

Juiced Up Dice, what is the odds of +1/-1?


Recommended Posts

You have 3 possible results (-1, 0, +1) and AFAIK the chances for each one are the same (i.e. 1/3).

So e.g. the chances for a polish breakthrough with only the 3 HQ supported ground units are 37,04 % ;) . Naturally this is only the long-term chance. If you take only a single event, you can have a wide spread, so short term luck matters.

Therefore if you play e.g. only mini-games, then luck can have a huge influence on the outcome ;) . But if you play the whole game, then luck nearly doesn´t matter any more since it evens out in the long run and lastly only strategy determines who will win - that´s why my overall win percentage is >99% hehe :D - luck fortunately doesn´t matter in SC as long as you don´t surrender too early smile.gif .

And if you remember your 2 victories against me: you had good results, but that was not the real reason why you have won them. In the first game I had chosen the wrong strategy - again Spain gambit after I just did it several times and you were prepared to counter. In the second you developed a new strategy (your RACK-carrier strategy) and surprised me totally - was a really good move smile.gif (I already sacrificed large parts of my fleet and didn´t do GLR research - the standard combat doctrine at that time, but RACK never worked again after I was prepared smile.gif ).

[ October 30, 2004, 03:21 AM: Message edited by: Terif ]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Luck does matter ;) but of course skill does more, Mr. Terif is correcto Mundo

plus awareness.. anyone with the same skill level that plays the same amount of games and practices the 'same types of strategies' given that luck doesn't matter will win about 50% as much... <problem is that most of us don't get the above opportunity, I know I have heard the Masters say as it really is...They don't tell you cause they want to win!> Including he's not tired and aware of what's going on in the game

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ref luck in the long run evens out

Tech wise it may be different sometimes (a little off topic):

In a game vs DH (where both of us made a sh*tload of mistakes, but he made fewer than me ;) ) my russians with 3 chits in AT and 3 chits in jets from the DoW turn, found themselves 2 years later having only lvl2 jets which is useless. The lvl 0 AT proved a game breaker because the reds had no tools to offset the axis xp. DH also got quite unlucky with techs as well, he had high lvl jets but on the ground not much. But Axis xp made it almost impossible for russians to counterstrike and, left aside some lousy spearhead panzers, momma russia was not able to kill much.

Now, luck or no luck, one cannot expect to hold the front in russia only by spamming tons of low tech troops - DH killed 2-4 units per turn or something like that.

As DH can confirm, i applied the standard defence, behind natural obstacles and all that but it was useless - unless you can counterattack with success, allies will lose.

Probably in the majority of the games, luck evens out in the long run - but it depends what 'long run' means - if it means mid 1943, allies won't have the resources/time to use that tech.

On topic - i fully agree with the lucky dice rolls

evening out in the long run - they may seem very important in the first turns but overall it is not a game breaker.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In many of my games i never got AT tech with russians. AT is the most important thing for them as the germans will normally use alot of tanks and on the other side the line is not breaking that easy.

Cosim is rite if he says that the tech for russia can be a gamebreaker.....as when russia comes into game it needs quick research results otherwise it cant hold the germans back.

But as in the overall game you have to be patient also with russia ..if you dont get the tech...then defend not the usual defence line but let them fall back even deep into russia.....ok you loose alot of MPP and germans get more but deep in the motherland the supply situation for the germans is bad...and then you can counter sucessfully.

I won with this strategy a game where i was behind about 900 to 600 MPP.

Tech is tricky and unpretictable but that´s SC. :D

IMO a low tech game, where each side doesn´t have much luck, are the best and most exiting games....as the fighting with JET 5 is a game breaker.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Liam:

Jets 5 is expensive to reinforce.

A few bad dice rolls here or there you can lose half your fighter fleet... That will be a morale breaker. Plus after that point, being the one with without air power you'r in deep trouble

Jet 5 is not expensive to reinforce it is defenitely not to reinforce :D
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Create New...