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Is CMBS dead?


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14 hours ago, Anthony P. said:

I'm not quite sure on what factual basis that fear can actually rest itself upon.

One should appreciate the potentials of cyber warfare, but at the end of the day it's not as though we actually eat cyber food and drink cyber water. The "cyber warfare can destroy society as we know it" can sound reminiscent of pre WW2 "the bomber will always get through" fears of major population centres like London being razed to the ground overnight with millions upon millions of dead and seeing empires begging for peace within weeks of war being declared, or McNamara's technophilia in Vietnam.

For those interested in Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs). I highly recommend:

https://www.amazon.com/War-Made-New-Technology-Warfare/dp/1592402224?nodl=1&dplnkId=2283fc77-c9c7-494a-9577-81de6b679ee6

What is interesting about technoplhilia, behind the cultural undertones, is that is it always wrong…until it turns out right.  Gunpowder weapons started out as dangerous hand-cannons that frankly made more noise than anything else.  Until they became muskets and rifles.  Indirect fire was originally a niche siege weapon until gunpowder but then was large, undependable and unwieldy..until they became artillery.

Cyber is an excellent case in point.  Despite the press, we really did not see it employ as a decisive capability (let alone military domain) in Ukraine.  That does not mean it won’t become decisive in the future but the advertising did not match real world demonstrations.  Unmanned systems have been around since the 60s and I have read/heard of them revolutionizing the battlefield since I was a cadet.  However, given the scope and scale of employment in Ukraine right now, this technology might be having its Constantinople moment.

The other thing about RMAs, which Boot outlines very well, is that they do not happen in a weekend…or even in a single war.  These are shifts in warfare that have taken centuries, and in more modern history, decades.  I can recall in the 90s the “RMA is upon us!” Followed quickly by “What Revolution?”  I strongly suspect that both sides of the debate were right and wrong at the same time.  We are not at the beginning or end of a Revolution in Military Affairs - we are in the middle of one.  And have been likely since the late 80s.  Information Technology’s full impact on the battlefield has yet to culminate but the trends are becoming undeniable.  

So in my experience RMAs are nasty sneaky affairs.  They wait until no one is really paying attention and then you wake up one morning and drones are chasing soldiers around trees while being watched in real time. 

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On 1/15/2024 at 10:53 AM, Anthony P. said:

That Hopefully the shelved DLC might be rerouted to Shock Force to add Russia as a faction there, but as for CMBS... I don't think it's fair to say that it's dead, but it's certainly in a coma.

Man this would actually be amazing! A plausible setting without media drama.

Edited by AtlasActual
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