Russia vs Ukraine: A 2018 Assessment

[John Kettler]

Though a year past the CMBS timeframe, this Blinkov video nevertheless is a great operational-strategic look at the overall context for the game. Though nowhere nearly as granular as the CMBS story and the backstory, it remains, I believe, a great introduction to the overall situation in which CMBS has its foundation. Without outside help, in the case of a full-blown Russian invasion, the Correlation of Forces would've been disastrous for Ukraine, and the fall of Ukraine certain, but without the timing being known. This analysis is founded, too, on the not necessarily credible premise the Russians would use purely conventional weapons only. Weaponry used in Afghanistan and Chechnya, to name but two,  strongly indicate expecting the Russians to confine themselves to what most think of as purely conventional weaponry is, at best, highly optimistic. For example, in the CMBS timeframe, both the TOS-1 and TOS-1A had already been in combat, never mind an array of MRLs also not in the game and having all sorts of capabilities, which would've made things much worse, thus enabling a considerably more rapid advance, resulting in an earlier Russian win, one with fewer casualties. Subsequent to the collapse of the Soviet Union,  the Swedes test detonated a ex-Soviet NNEMP (Non-Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse) bomb, with devastating effects on electronics, further accelerating the invasion timetable. This isn't a complete list, either, but further illustrates how dire Ukraine's plight was in the period. Shall be most interested in seeing what Haidul thinks of the video. The comments make fascinating reading, too, of which particularly telling ones involve a) Belarus securing the border zone, allowing Russia to commit even greater forces, but far worse, b) Russia can also attack from Belarus, in essence, turning the Dnepr river defense line.
 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited January 5, 2022 by John Kettler

[Sgt.Squarehead]

n/t

Edited January 21, 2022 by Sgt.Squarehead