Meanwhile in Korea.......

[exsonic01]

I'm very busy recently, couldn't play game or participate in campaign plan at all (Sorry kohlenklau, I will reach you when I'm ready). I'm writing 2 papers at the same time, and working on third project now. The deadlines are not so far. I'm really under lots of pressure.

 

But recent move in my home country (I'm Korean) is in the middle of .... interesting turmoil. Nothing visible yet. I don't think that there will be a full scale war BT SK/US and NK, but the chance is continuously rising. They are 'communicating' with loud speaker and artillery. So, I decided to briefly introduce what the heck is going on in Korea. It is very brief and short. For more information, plz check other news papers.  

 

It was started by land mine incident by NK forces, 4th of Aug. They set mines on the routes for SK recon troops inside the DMZ. (Divisional / Regimental recon units. All SK divisions and regiment near DMZ operate patrol and watch missions inside the DMZ, specially southern half of the DMZ.) It was wood-boxed AP mine, designed to blow up the knee/ankle of victim. SK no more use wood-boxed mine, we use plastic, as well as US (Unlike elsewhere, we all still use mines in Korea. Obviously, the mine is coming from the North.) As a result, 2 soldiers lost their legs. NK claimed that the mine was not coming from north, saying NK is not responsible for the mine incident. Of course, the mines are set by NK soldiers, possibly by their recon units, or NK light infantry or SF units. Crazy "the Fat" Kim of the North needed some attention and food. Or, it was their response to the SK-US UFG drill. 

 

As a retaliation, in 10th of Aug, SK DoD and SK government decided to resume the loud-speaker broadcasting, which was halted from 2004 by agreements of both sides. Loud-speaker broadcasting is very effective psychological warfare weapon in DMZ. Lots of defected NK soldiers also testified that the broadcasting was very accurate, direct & straight, and even funny & little sarcastic. Unlike radio, which can be countered by jamming, loud-speaker broadcasting is very effective, since it directly affects NK soldiers, and is unable to jam or interrupt. It influenced many DMZ front line NK soldiers, so NK gov really hate that. 

 

So, as we resume the anti-NK broadcasting, they warned us that "This is great threat to the Great glorious leader, turn that **** off or we will shoot". South replied "apologize the mine incident, and punish the responsible commander" NK says "No, the mines are not ours" SK replied "BS"...... And 20th of Aug, NK shoot 14.5mm and 76.2mm (direct fire) to the South, near the known loud-speaker location. (Not sure that was warning of miss) SK retaliated with 36 155mm shells. SK arty didn't hit the target, just warning shots near the NK targets. The reason why the North didn't used indirect howitzers or arty shots is supposed that they didn't want to open their arty positions to us, especially anti-battery radar. So, they fired 76.2mm. 

 

Crazy "the Fat" Kim get mad, saying "This is blasphemy to the Great republic and Great leader, prepare war~!" NK build up their artillery number, preparing new shells, ammo, and other supplies. Some of the new arty units coming to the near-DMZ area from the North, as reinforcements. It was all detected by SK/US recon assets. In 21th of Aug, commander in chief of NK said "We will give you 48 hrs imperialists. If you continue your broadcast, we will shoot" and SK replied "Kiss my ass" and continued the broadcast. SK and US also responded with reinforced positions and armors, more number of artillery, and increased recon/air patrol. Report says that many part of US 2nd ID already mobilized, including the US troops participating the UFG drill. Not to mention about SK forces. Major part of SK army are on alert from the 10th of Aug.  

 

Aug 22th, suddenly, the North suggested the talk. And SK accepted. Right now, they (2 from north, 2 from south) are talking in Panmunjum more than 6 hrs. Even during the talk, the North never retreats or fall back, and still aiming at the loud-speaker positions. In addition, a moment ago, US troops, including M1A2 and MLRS, fielded near Panmunjum area, just right behind the area. It seems that the troops of both sides "face-off" each other, similar with Checkpoint Charlie incident (this is purely my opinion, not the fact). I think this is also the way of 'communication' between each other. Especially, against the communists, 'communication with power' is essential and effective. They are nasty bastards. We South Koreans learned this during 70 years of the stand off. Remind that the communists are good at "back-stabbing during talk" strategy, some of experts claimed that the talk is just a distraction. I don't know. Maybe the North think that they are not in good position, so they suggested the talk first.... 

 

I don't know where the event will going to flow, but I think the chance of full scale war is not that great. NK and Kim clearly knows well, that the second Korean war means the end of NK. Since NK's the first priority is survival and maintain of their system, they will not gonna attempt any stupid suicidal action. However, I really wish the SK and US teach a lesson this time, to the Crazy the Fat Kim and NK dynasty. And no one is sure about the future. There are still the chances for unexpected radical action, or escalation of conflict.... 

 

I special thanks to all the US and ally service men and women, anyone who served or serving in South Korea. Without you guyz, Korea would not survived. Thank you very much. 

 

BFC, if you have chance, think about the scenario of SK+US vs NK+China. This will be really interesting match up, and one of the likely-to-happen scenario for the full scale war. 

 

 

Add) Report says that the Chinese armored columns (including tanks and howitzers) are concentrating near NK-China border. It seems China also want to "communicate" with US and SK.... or it is to warn NK, not to escalate the situation. 

Edited August 22, 2015 by exsonic01

[sburke]

I expect China's message is more to NK than US.  China has enough on their plate to stabilize their economy, they don't need the distraction of dealing with NK.  I think you are correct in estimations of NK. Crazy Fat boy (CFB) seems to be politically a bit sensitive.  Too much internal strife still going on and it appears he doesn't really feel secure.  An open conflict with SK would introduce a level of disruption and potential opportunity for individuals that aren't loyal to him to take him out.

 

Hope it calms down though, I have a few friends in Seoul I don't want to have to worry about.

 

(on a side note damn Seoul has some good eating places!)

[Sublime]

Yes lets hope it doesnt go hot.  It'd be a lot worse than our last two wars.  The NKA can and will fight, and will use every weapon at their disposal.  I also dont doubt a lot of civilian casualties in bombardments in Seoul and from the infamous tunnels and subsequent actions by NKA SF.

I could easily see a war with the Norths regime feeling more and more threatened by open discontent and unrest by a starving civilian population - getting fat Kim into use it or lose it position.  Go for broke or have a coup type deal.  I also seem to recall this being considered the most plausible scenario for a NKPA attack on the South in the 90s.

[Lethaface]

Now NK is a regime ripe for regime change (imo) and has been for long. Unfortunately they don't have oil ;-P

Exsonic thanks for the detailed report. Already read about the mines and a soldier losing its leg and the fact there was a shooting incident, but no specifics. Trading 76/155mm shells is quite a bit different than some small arms fire interchange.

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

I spent the last bit of my active duty career (or at least the useful part!) in Korea.  Some comments:

1. The primary goal of the DPRK leadership is the best off person in the worst country in the world.  Milton had it right in that it is "Better to rule in hell than serve in Heaven."  Whatever they will do, it is for regime preservation.  The biggest danger in terms of chances of the regime being toppled is brought by B-2s flying wingtip to wingtip over Pyongyang, and Third ROK Army blasting a breach through the DMZ with 1st CAV and 25th ID in tow.   Pushing the ROK too far, or large scale military action will end the DPRK as we know it.

   Caveat A.  However, where the playing with gasoline comes in is in the immortal words of the respected poets, Tears for Fears, in that Everybody Wants to Rule the World.  There's lots of the ruling elements that want to be Kim Il Song.  Kim keeps them in line by shooting them with rabid dogs fired from a tank, but there's always a chance one of them gets lucky or Kim gets complacent and we're looking at a total breakdown of order in the DPRK.  This is honestly the most dangerous scenario I can think of.  

  Caveat B.  If pushed to the point where regime survival is less likely with status quo than success in military conflict the DPRK might roll the dice.  This is doubtful however as if the DPRK was that weak, the odds of military success in a conflict against Latvia, let alone the ROK and her allies would be remote.

 

2. A significant part of being the DPRK requires appearing both dangerous, and crazy enough to be really dangerous while not being too dangerous to live next door to.  It's two parts, the first being to made invading the DPRK seem too daunting to even consider, while also never being so dangerous as to overcome ROK and UN resistance to offensive military action.

 

A bit part of this is asymmetrical attacks that are blatantly obviously DPRK origin but to a degree DPRK allies can still ignore the burden of proof.  The mine wasn't there to kill ROK military, it was there to show what the DPRK could do.  They want sugarplum visions of thousands of NKPA ninja warriors planting mines on every surface of South Korea because the God-Emperor demands it be so!  This is something that is not so egregious as to be worth starting a war that will cost thousands (tens of thousands perhaps) of military losses to ROK and Allies, but it's designed to make the idea of starting a war so spooky as to make putting up with another 20 years of DPRK being terrible preferable to open warfare.

 

Same deal why they love nukes, they don't plan on nuking a hole through the DMZ, they just want to make attacking the DPRK so daunting they can more or less do enough shady stuff to keep the Kim family rolling on Johnny Walker and caviar without fear of invasion.

 

In regards to China, they want the DPRK to shut up and behave, and buy Chinese stuff/give China natural resources.  They don't want to deal with a full spectrum bloody conventional war on their border pumping thousands if not millions of starved, functionally uneducated North Koreans who will turn into a humanitarian disaster in short order once they cross the border.  Status quo, and if not status quo, the least chaotic outcome.

So in that regard I would suggest a Chinese intervention would be to establish a buffer zone to keep DPRK refugees south, secure possible high value Chinese investments in the Northern parts of the country.  Likely they'll coordinate some level with the ROK-US elements (possibly stipulating how far north the US goes in exchange for keeping intervention limited, while allowing the ROK all the way to the Chinese front line).  .

 

That said at least the way I'm reading it, this isn't an incident worth getting too excited about.  It's higher tension than usual, but not quite the highway to hell.  

[Melchior]

Their is clearly a method to the madness in the DPRK that isn't just checking off that "conclude 60 year old war" bullet point. The nature of the DPRK's power structure probably just requires Kim to do something toward the South every now and then. Fart in their general direction if he must. It's so hard to tell because of how secluded the country is, but somehow I doubt Kim Jong Un is completely without some kind of internal check to his power. There must be consequences for appearing to slacken off towards the South. Even the most powerful Dictators in history have never been truly all-powerful.