Carolus

Quite a historic move for the purely economic union. As I thought in the past, the EU should not be completely underestimated, although it is an entity without an army. It's a financial juggernaut and some EU parliamentarians are idealistic people (in a good way), motivated by the idea of a transnational effort.

Afraid to put a bit of a dampener on this. Macron did say again that troops on the ground in Ukraine, in some capacity, should not be impossible. He also said that France will step in to make sure that Russia cannot win if needs be. But he also said that the time for doing something like that "is not today". And the French troops in Romania arrived for regularly scheduled NATO training. There is no unusual troop movement there. As far as I have seen from some French commenters, this speech was mostly aimed at a domestic audience and is part of Macron's re-election campaign. Still, the rethoric is new and has been coming too consistently for too long to be just a gaffe. It may be part of a new consciousness for Cold War acting, giving Russia messages to think about.

Yeah, it seems strange. If what he says is true, then Ukraine leadership should reassess their targeting.

Russia starts to work like a modern military. Concerning if this becomes routine. Ukraine does not have enough systems for consistent air denial for drones over the whole frontline and behind. Unless something new appear (drone interceptors to counter drones), this will continue to be painful.

There were more strikes against Russian petro industry this night. Four refineries or depots hit.

Oh yeah, I saw no claims that this was a Ukrainian hit. But nonetheless, there is now an IL-76 and 15 Russians less in the airforce.

It seems pretty much confirmed that Russia took out 2 Patriot launchers recently. That is certainly painful, but I also remembered that Ukraine received 2 spare launchers from the Netherlands and the USA each - and maybe 2 more from Germany? So, considering there have been no other confirmed losses (some got minor damage and were repaired), Ukraine should have at least 2 more spare launchers in addition to their 3 full Patriot batteries.

Nothing to see here, please move along.

Teplinsky is apparently alive, and the Thirteen guy was killed by Kadyrovites after starting beef with them. No idea what was on that ship. I don't see a reason to kill Teplinsky. Isn't he the idiot who only ordered meat assaults and wasted Russian material by sending them into narrow approaches at Krynky? Ukraine should aim to keep as many of the old guard in Russia alive during the war. Their corruption and incompetence is 30% of Ukrainian war power (the rest is half Western tech, half massive titanium balls and grit). Why risk a motivated up-and-coming nationalist to take his spot? Someone who has the kind of brains Putin would normally keep out of the higher ranks?

Okay thank you. I was seriously doubting my mind because I couldn't make heads nor tails of Kofman's tweet, and wondered if he was just channeling DeGrasse Tyson. Apparently he was.

Also, Russia is not just producing, it is producing and refurbishing old shells. The latter has an expiration date. The rate is not sustainable. We might see unpleasent surprises from China via NK, but for now, everything Russia does has an expiration date.

Habemus Suecia

Something is moving in the American congress.

I just saw this too. Some people say the debris looks more like PATRIOT trucks (so part of the German donation), not S300.

Nothing too special about this drone video, except when one flew into the BMP driver hatch.

I had a sorrow look through the obituaries of the International Legion. A lot of Colombians as of late. They must be a significant portion. It reminded me of the volunteers who went to the Spanish Civil War, which also roused many emotions in Europe at the time. I am in awe of these volunteers (and all other who stand shoulder to shoulder with them, whichever function they serve).

At that point it simply comes down to who has more production lines and the resources to feed them as swarm is pushing against swarm to reach the other side's power plants or other strategic nodes which disrupt output.

What about a magazine fed AGL with 40mm HEAB in combination with new nifty sights for range acquisition? https://soldiersystems.net/2023/03/01/enforce-tac-23-rheinmetall-squad-support-weapon-40/

5.56 and 7.62 are too small for explosive or airburst bullets, but what would a flechette bullet do to a drone? It was in development during the Vietnam era. Or maybe these modern dumdum rounds which splitter on impact??

Jump up? I assume the problem with submersible drones is signal range under water. It would need a snorkle with an antenna. But I am also sure I remember reading that one thing ships really don't like is an explosion underneath the keel. If you can go below water with 100kg of explosives, don't jump. Just hit it from below. Unless you rocket jump over the safety net of a bridge, of course.

2031: Jef Bezos declares himself absolute sovereign of the territory conquered by his private army while a drone swarm forming his gigantic floating head in the sky announces his laws and wishes to a confused population. Did I spoil the next CM title? CM:Amazon Rising?

I am personally not very concerned about these numbers, because this is not a war of vehicles. Does this mean pressure on Ukrainians? Does it mean death and suffering? Yes. But we have a "Coalition for Drones" program going in Europe that aims to provide a million drones to Ukraine in 2024. We have a Czech 155mm shell initiative that is going to provide 500.000 shells to Ukraine this year, Chinese cotton notwithstanding. Rheinmetall is gearing up to outproduce the entire USA with 155mm shells. Ukraine itself has produced 200.000 drones this year already and will produce more than a million if they just keep production rates at current levels. Okay, only 1 per 7 drone attacks is successful on average. What are 5000 Russian vehicles filled with contractniki and conscriptniki going to do when the we have a ratio of 1 tracked / wheeled vehicle per 20 drones with Ukrainian production alone, and 1 : 40 if the EU drones coalition keeps its promise? 1:40 and each single one is a potential kill at a range of 3 to 5 kms? Denial for ground warfare is only beginning to ramp up. And as @Letter from Prague said, we don't even know what damage strategic bombing will do to Russia over the course of the year, because that will not get better for Russia either. Ukraine only needs to turtle under the PATRIOT shield and keep its will to fight.

Russia's war is largely dependent on reserves, both the vast soviet arsenals of iron and rust, and on financial reserves which prop up the economy as a whole. I am petty sure that trying to avoid thinking about the question "what happens when we run out?" is one of the major reasons for vodka consumption in the regime's ranks. The West has to keep Ukraine breathing until 2026. Isn't it interesting how Western development and Russian development is diametrically opposed? By the time the Russians run dry, the European defense industry will only just have started to rock and roll. The question is how to bridge the time until then.

Claims to show moment of impact against the "Sergei Kotov" patrol vessel.

First German FPV drone for military purposes, delivieries will go to Ukraine. Called "tank destroyer" Maus. We will see if it will turn out to be over-engineered and unnecessarily maintenance intensive. But the manufacturer claims to have been in communication with Ukrainian soldiers during the design process. Released features: - Weaponry: modular via "clamp-on" system - Effective range (combat): 5-7 km (3-4 miles) - Effective range (recon): 12-17km (7-10 miles) - Max. flight time: 25 min - vertical speed: 17,5-22.0 m/s - Weight (empty): 700g - Max. total weight: 6,5kg - Frame: Donaustahl-M-V1 (inspired by "De Havilland DH.98") - Max. speed: 140 km/h (86mi/h) based on 10.000mAh battery. Seems like a speedy but low-range drone. Maybe it will have good electro-magnetic shielding? I would hope so.