Carolus

No one will take the Cap's laurels away, under whose watchful eyes this thread has grown and sprouted into a fruitful garden. May he ever keep his lonely vigil. But if it helps, this is a thread-summery, maybe it helps people without the Space Karen's app: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676753981333467136.html

Stoltenberg will remain Secretary General of NATO until October of next year due to current "unprecedented security challenges". I think he has done an amicable job so far, from the perspective of a civilian.

As said, I won't continue this topic from my side here. Just wanted to say I read and acknowledge your post and add one single thing so I don't look like a loon: I also have a few people over there / some experience with the country from past projects. The chained and registered knives are real -but it is recent and most prominently employed in the regions of ethnic minorities. Not the ones privileged by the system in the big cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The experiences of individuals of a country as wide and big as China can be very different.

I didnt see this post before, so I am a liar and do not keep my tooth-box as shut as it should be. But this is exactly what I tried to express. The CCP is not forever. But I weigh the current bad trends - housing crisis, hapless infrastructure spending, brain drain, economic bubbles, employment situation etc. vs. a state which uses AI to automatically identify jaywalkers in their power centers (cities) through a network of 700 million CCTV cameras, projects the faces of offenders onto the next building-sized LED display, and voids the digital metro tickets on their mobile phone instantly. A country in which kitchen knives are registered with micro-chips and chained to walls to deny possible rebel groups the chance to hoard weapons.

Harumph, harumph. Well to gather more information is certainly never bad advice and I will do my best to follow it. Since the internal situation of China is not really related to Ukraine, I will keep my tooth-box shut on the topic though, even if I do find something which enlightens me and changes my view of the iron-fisted control the CCP firmly has in my view.

(If embedding doesnt work: Chinese companies are hiring Wagner PMC in Africa to protect their projects and facilities. China also worked with Wagner to rescue several Chinese hostages who were taken by militias in Central African Republic.) Looks like Wagner PMC has found new customers.

Stress in what way? Because yes, there are people protesting about the banking crisis just as they did against Chinese covid lockdowns. Chinese grandmas crying because they lost their entire life savings when their bank account got scrapped. And, in a strange parallel to Russia, they are not protesting the CCP. They are asking the CCP to help because the local governor probaly did something wrong and nefarious, and if only Mao knew, he would sweep down from the heavens and restore justice and order. The boyars are pressing the people behind the back of the omni-tzar, again. And the only footage are leaked, shaky mobile phone videos from a student who happens to be nearby. About 20 metres from the protesting group of a dozen with signs are about 60 guys, half in green uniforms, half in white civilian shirts, waiting for the word "Go" to pack these people into vans. And that's the last we will see of some of them. None of these protests are even really noticed because cyberspace and public media are 100% under control in China. There are probably more Western people who know about these protests in China than mainland Chinese. Also because a significant minority of China is living in abject poverty and on the verge of starvation, and has never seen something outside their valley that is being used as an industrial waste disposal site. The membership of the CCP is swelling, their psyop and espionage operations in China and in the West are growing daily. Chinese students who go to Western universities to study engineering are burning posters that show the Tianmen Square because this Western made-up event is an insult to China. I don't see any stress. Xi Jinping has managed to create a system which can absorb a large degree of civil unhappiness, much better than the Russian system. Is it unbreakable? No, no human system is. Is it rather stable while millions of Chinese are living on literal garbage dumps and would worship an umbrella on their knees if they were told that Xi's hand had touched it once? Yes.

Russia is a net exporter of grain and fertilizer and Russian freight ships are operating completely free on the oceans, regardless of whether they carry military goods to Russia or stolen Ukrainian goods from Sewastopol. They even process Wagner's blood gold from Africa via London and Switzerland, completely legal. Additionally, Xi Jinping has made it state policy to become as food independent as possible and they have already been making progress over last year. And if the going gets tough, the CCP has zero problems to starve part of its population to stay in power. So, in total, I find very little to be positive about a possible radiation leak from ZNPP.

Thank you for the reminder that a shell is not thr same as another shell, depending on what systems are supporting it and enhance its effects. Thank you for pulling these sources together. It is an important reminder that many things happen behind the curtains. I always hope they are more than I hear about, and with impending good results.

Russia is not doing well in many regards, I have understood that much through reading this thread and other sources. But isn't the shell shortage limited yo certain localities? Some Ukrainian soldiers claim that in their sector, Russian artillery is as unrelenting as ever and it is their own side which is struggling with ammo. They have some to fire, just not to fire as much as they would want to. Meanwhile the EU ammo program is bogging down in EU procedures.

Understandable frustration.

In light of the comments about Russian arms production, here a piece which says that probably nothing has changed based on spending. https://jamestown.org/program/the-true-state-of-russian-arms-manufacturing-june-2023/ Caveat of course: Outside of well-connected intelligence services in the West, nobody can truly know. Official Russian numbers nowadays are not any more trustworthy than official numbers about the glorious four year plan under father Stalin.

This twitter thread claims that Russia has significantly scaled up its equipment production. Time for Ukrainian doom-posting for once. With Western populations unwilling to spend an extra penny on the war (most equipment and support is coming out of existing budgets), is the West allowing the most important event of thus century so far to slip out of its grasp through laziness and complacency? Did Russia win a few years ago by destabilizing us from the inside too much? Not actually what I believe. Just wondering about possiblities.

Ah, expensive was probably the wrong word in this context. And your point about what damages could be prevented is a good one. But in my mind, Storm Shadow is a weapon that has basically strategic value for Ukraine. It is not used to knock out single vehicles, but command posts, logistical hubs and other such targets which have strategic or operational value for the RA. Thank you for your elaboration, that hits the nail on the head. It is scarcity, not monetary worth, that I meant to express. Specially since the RA is dispersing the helicopters o. the airfield. Isn't there an ATACMS warhead which is filled with cluster submunitions? Another argument for their usefulness to Ukraine and why they should be provided. Storm Shadow, JDAM, GLSDB (which are supposed to arrive this year) or Taurus (if Germany decides to supply them) are all warheads which provide single focused effect or general HE. GMLRS would be suitable in terms of effect (tungsten pellets) and numbers, but don't have the necessary range.

As per past discussions on this thread, getting them on the ground seems to be the only option due to the lack of ground-based AD for his range and manner of deployment, and the lack of air-to-air assets in Ukraine. But Storm Shadow would be far too expensive as a weapon, unless it targets the ATGM or fuel depot of the helicopters (which is an indirect way of dealing with them). I rather think some of the Ukrainian long-range drones could be deployed here, if they are available in numbers big enough to overwhelm Russian AA. Making a KA-52 unsafe or unable to operate would not take 100s of lbs of explosives, something like an RPG warhead would be enough.

Painful. The Russian helicopter fleet is back with a vengeance after floundering so hard last year.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Special-report-Russia-buying-civilian-drones-from-China-for-war-effort China selling mini drones to Russia for the war. Probably not a surprise for anyone.

The oligarchs have the amount of money that they will feel no personal lack of anything. Sanctions against the civilian populace are beside the point. Western nations will never apply sanctions which provide serious harm (food, medicine) to civilians, and any inconvinience in daily life will not change the situation in Russia because the majority of the population is politically passive and the part of the population which isn't apolitical are the Angry Patriots & Co who scream from the rooftoops that is is time to "finally take the gloves off and show the Ukrainian subhumans the what is what". The sanctions which make sense and which need to be tightened and enforced three times over are: parts for machining and machine maintenance, software, military goods and goods with double-usage, so all links of micro-chips, opto-electronics for targeting systems, everything with regard to aviation, as well as any sanction which is macro-economically relevant. That means making Russian exports worth less and Russian imports cost more on the world market.

Since there has been some talk about the war's possible end, I feel like adding my own personal speculation. And I think that the war will not end in a way that is formally recognised by both sides, at least not within the foreseeable future. What I see most likely happening, regardless of who stays in power in Russia, is that they just never back down. Never negotiate. Never even acknowledge that this could be an option. Ukraine will push Russia back (how much I will not say) until it exhausts its offensive capacity to the degree the Ukrainian high command feels comfortable with - keeping a capable reserve ready to defend the country. Russia will exhaust its conventional offensive capacity as well, more even, and just continue to dig in where the Ukrainians stop. Russia will simply not talk to anyone about it. It will not be able to launch a large-scale offensive for several years, and maybe will not even be interested to do so for longer than that. Instead they will continue to terrorize Ukraine with long-range air attacks, every month, every week, since that is what they can afford and what Ukraine cannot stop at the source. Ukraine will receive more Western air defense equipment to keep its citizens relatively safe from Russian air terror. Eventually the Ukrainian government will one-sidedly end martial law, returning to a semi-normality, with air sirens and Patriots disrupting their sleep. While the LOC remains cold, with some sparks coming up here and there depending on the time of the year, and the air terror remaining, and Russia just never acknowledging that they could ever lose the war or even started one in Ukraine. There will be no justice for Russian war crimes. But Ukraine will gradually get diplomatically, politically and economically more integrated with the other European nations. This state will remain for decades. After that, maybe a generation will come to power in either country which did not experience the 2014 to 202X war themselves, and tiny reconciliations will start to happen. A contract here, and agreement there. Nothing big. Like between South Korea and North Korea. And between Russia and the other Western countries as well. No real peace deal. No negotiations. Just exhaustion, contraction, stagnation.

It is interesting how this war seems to have combined anachronisms. Drones and long-range precison strikes mix with mass artillery and extensive minefields. It leads to a lot of indirect fighting (a mine, a shell, a cruise missile is something that is fighting/affecting the enemy far away without you yourself being there), combined with the very close range direct fighting whenever one group manages to get into the other's trench. I hope that Western nations take note. I know, as was pointed out by others in this thread, that this particular theater has oddities which may be unique - and a conventional approach by the West with air superiority (after a traumatic SEAD campaign) could look very different. On the other hand I hope that every NATO company is about to get an attachable drone platoon with every squaddie carrying a dozen FPV drones and an X-Box controller on his back. The versatility and range they seem to provide is enormous and the only ceiling is how cheaply you can pump the drones out. I am extremely worried when looking at China, the Mekka of cheap electronic mass production. On the other hand, FPV drones might be rather useless in a maritime war. My apologies for rambling. Coming back to Ukraine, based on the probes (which I truly believe were just probes or recon in force attempts so far - which may very well be the entirety of corrosive warfare; an endless series of probes), what could the West do that really helps? Mine clearing seems to be a huge issue. Can mines be detonated by cluster ammunition? Or classic impact artillery? Is it reliable or cost-effective to blast a path down the minefield with a rolling barrage? Does that ruin the field for tracked vehicles? Mine-clearing vehicles seem to be vulnerable to being targeted since they need to be present at the position and are crewed by people. AT- Mines are usually triggered by weight and magnetics. Weight prevents the idea of using a lot of small remote controlled vehicles, since they would not trigger. Using heavy remote controlled vehicles seems expensive. What could the West provide that is timely and effective? A hundred old Ford SUVs and ye olde brick on the gas pedal? Would that just create a barrier of scrap metal once the mine field is cleared? Can they be pushed aside with tanks that roll through next? Again, my apologies for likely inefficient ramblings. It is the result of reading about the ongoing counter-offensive and the suffering of the Ukrainian service men and is the attempt of someone non-military to think about a (apparently rather tricky) military situation.

Obviously the most important question is how will the DLC for CM:BS in a few years handle Wagner as a Red vs Blue and a Red vs Red force? Privately bought personal equipment mixed with Russian Army vehicles and captured Westenr stuff.

I remember reading a thread about that in the past here in these very forums, and with specific reference to the observations from Ukraine. The conclusion was, ultimately, that from a game design standpoint increasing the damage of artillery and specifically shrapnel and fragments to vehicle subsystems would probably be more realistic but it would also change the dynamic of gameplay in a way that is too unbalanced and not desired.

It seems that the snooping around of Russian ships near underwater cables and pipelines did not go unnoticed in the offices of the higher-ups.

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together. I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic. Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely: https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 Here is the summary: General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir. Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany) new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model") NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise. Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge.