Huba

There were suggestions for some time, but now it's confirmed. It shouldn't be different to repairing M1s in Poland, a very small escalation at best:

M109s seen near Gniezno, Poland has been going to Lithuania afaik.

I would be very careful about such precise predictions regarding the eastern Europe situation after this war, as there are really too many variables that can go many ways. What will happen in Belarus? What will be the status of Moldova and Georgia? Is Ukraine allowed to join NATO after the peace treaty? Those are fundamental questions, until we know I is just smoke and mirrors.

Over 100 T-72M1R (with thermals, but not upgraded apart from that) has disappeared from magazines. Police has no clues so far. It was reported about a week ago, right now thieves might've taken them anywhere, including Donbas. Same mysterious group has stolen a battalion worth of 2S1, some BM-21s and is continuously siphoning various artillery ammo. There will be a special investigation into this after the summer break I hear. I'd argue that if there weren't the political shenanigans, that 100 Leo1 could be a kind of interim help, that would be about to enter combat in few weeks, considerably earlier then M1. Even if all are taken out or break, this would still add some value, until the M1s arrive. Treat them as a disposable asset really, or just put them back on train to Germany for repairs and refit at some point. Anyway, I'm waiting for Scholz's announcement, let's see what PzH2000 in it's natural habitat can do finally

As is landing transport planes there or doing the whole weapons transfer thing. We are past worrying about it really.

Capitulation seems reasonable. You give away all your weapons straight away (Poland will take them and transfer to Ukraine for you). Russia can get Germany if they are able to drive there

Up to 2 weeks for ship to arrive to Gdańsk from Houston, less from East Coast. 1 Day rail transport to UA border. Refitting those tanks after taking them out of storage would probably consume the most time, plus training the crews. Setting up logistical base, repair shops etc in eastern Poland can be done in parallel to these activities I think.

1. The lead time on completely new modern AFVs is years. It might to come to that theoretically, but for now newbuilds are not a solution at all. 2. Some tanks are better then no tanks. Leo1 has better FCS than most Russian tanks and can do everything except fight them head-on. Long term solution is the M1s I think, but short term, if Germans weren't ****ing around, those Leo1s would be 3 weeks or so from entering combat. M1s will take months from now. 3. Ukrainians explicitly asked for Leo1 from German stock, I'd think that we might just listen to them on this.

This honestly sounds like misinterpretation or a feint at best. Edit: he corrects in next tweet that objective is Hulaipole. If not feint, then Russia seems to aim at a "large pincers" scenario.

No Leo2 to spare in meaningful numbers.

The first two are going out the window at an increasing pace. The third can be overcome for sure given time, money and will. The last is the real problem really. With experience of Vietnam US should be wary of helping "just enough". With sufficient help, Ukraine case might be a resounding success in US foreign policy making I think, the biggest in few decades at least.

Go Netherlands!

Why wouldn't those assets be given to Ukraine exactly? What is stopping us ( especially US)?

On the other hand, USA reasserts itself as the leader of the Free World this way. After the debacles of Iraq and Afghanistan, your political position should improve greatly for relatively small cost. Alternative is decline into the "Multipolar World", a goal expressed explicitly by Putin. Plus I'm sure there are still many Cold Warriors who are just dying to see all this 80s' vintage equipment have a go at the Russkies, last chapter in 70 years of rivalry. I agree though, that Europe should pay most of cost of this war. Keep in mind that there are many costs, like refugees etc that is being covered by EU exclusively, and so probably will be the rebuilding of Ukraine after the war. You guys do what you do best - get the weapons there

It was reverse of current situation in Vietnam, and it didn't escalate. I see no reason why it couldn't be that way this time. I agree that at the moment there's no diplomatic solution. Drive on Moscow looks absurd, but Russia collapsing from war exhaustion is quite possible, this is the outcome we should look up for.

Current aid has amounted to 3,8 Bn already if you add all the packages I think? You don't have to give away all of those at once, open a steady stream of 150 per month or so. Arsenal of Democracy can afford that Politically, USAs stance after it saves everyones bacon again should raise considerably, there's the return on your investment. I agree that that's the way. Honestly given how USA is stepping up the help, I'm sure that some of the heavy equipment is being taken out of mothballs already. AFAIK the POMCUS sites in Europe are no longer, can anyone confirm that ?

If it's possible the Leo1s should be send there, I see no reason to argue against it, Ukrainians will use them well I'm sure. It will be to late for the current battle, but might be just in time for the next one in 2 months. Problem with Leo1 is mostly that there are not that many available so long-term it is not a solution at all. In contrast, USA has 3700 (!) M1s in storage according to wiki.

Can't +1 it, so I'll just say that it is really great. I had no idea Putin is the kind of guy who doesn't have a smartphone cause he's afraid of CIA o_O

In the meantime Zelenskys' aviser shed some light on the ongoing operations. According to him Russians didn't take Kreminna yet, no mention of Zarichne at all. He confirms the push at Sloviansk from Izium. https://odessa-journal.com/arestovich-four-tasks-of-the-russians-in-the-new-offensive-in-ukraine/

Question is how many we can get there? AFAIK Germans have 150 available, this is not going to cut it in a long term. Unless Greeks are willing to part with more or less their whole fleet of 500. That's actually a way for Ze Germans to step up to the challenge - cancel those debts in exchange for the tanks.

Well for the Battle of Donbas there will be no armor reinforcements apart from Czech and Polish T-72s that are already there. Godspeed to Ukrainians manning those. Assume all of this is to take longer, like in scenario when Russians do a full mobilization and somehow manage to bring The Horde to the borders in 6 months. M1 is the only modern western tank that there are a considerable reserves of. I really hope that USians are vacuuming sand from those as we speak. Same with remaining Bradleys if there are any lefts, M109 and M270 above all. Scrapping single Leos and other European vehicles from around the continent won't produce much (as there are hardly any reserve) and will create logistical nightmare. USA has to save the day again I'm afraid.

I read a story from OIF that crew of an M1A1 didn't know they were hit by a sabot round until they stopped the tank and went out. With the vehicle rolling they were insulated from outside noise to a degree that they didn't even notice. I have no tanking experience, but this sounds plausible. If the tank is not in combat though, but just standing there while crew sleeps does maintenance, that would work great for sure

Looks like between Lyman and Sloviansk there's only one road/ railway line through the forests and over the river. With UA advantage in infantry it does not look good. I was wondering if Russians could bypass Sloviansk and just got north of it through the forests. There are few roads there, if they captured them, and be prepared to bridge the river (quite narrow there) with the rest of plan going more or less as Steve has proposed. Their flank from the side of Sloviansk would be protected by forest and river, and after emerging from the forests they could proceed through Siversk to Bakhmut. Does that make sense? Instead of converging on Sloviansk, the two phase one pincers would converge on Lyman and then proceeded south-east. I know they can't advance through those forests, but the same was said about Ardennes in 1940.

Depends on the level of precision operator can achieve, but yeah, I see those going down hatches etc. Imagine the psychological effect on the crews (and anybody really) after few attacks, when word gets around.

I recall that the operators are already trained and deployed (to a degree at least), as Switchblade 300 was reportedly already used in combat. Those were included in the previous batch of american support. Now US is just sending more rounds AFAIK. Let's see what happens, we'll probably see a first mass use of those in next few days.