Huba

Yeah, you and @Kinophile are probably right, thinking of this again it makes the most sense. I hate to see them being used at targets that close to the frontline though, shame there aren't GLSDB or similar low cost solutions available for that.

Reportedly a fuel depot. Some prominent RU telegrams suggest that it was a cruise missile, though no evidence at this point, and IMO unlikely, given the distance from the front line.

Looks like with the things starting to move again, we are back to Rybar maps being interesting. Latest ones shows UA gains near the water reservoir that was mentioned in latest RU MoD announcement. Overall, the Bakhmut salient is looking less and less salienty by the hour.

Here's Koffman's take on today's events:

Here's TheDrive article about it, probably as good an analysis as we can get at this time: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-storm-shadow-missiles-are-a-big-problem-for-russia

Why stick ERA on CR2, if it has proprietary, battle proven up-armor package? I don't see why Britain wouldn't provide it with the donated vehicles. Apart from added protection, it also (in my personal opinion) makes Chally2 the meanest looking tank ever built, especially when compared to the poor old T-54:

If they get through the Russian AD, I'd say catastrophic. These are guided by a IR camera during the final approach and can easily hit exactly where you want them to hit. Say a support column, pylon, or main cable that the bridge span hangs from. The warhead weighs 500 kg and is two-staged: first is a shaped charge that blows hole in the targeted structure, through which the secondary charge enters and explodes. It's much more effective than a brute force HE charge.

I'd start with launching a few on Sevastopol, then waited till everyone interested moves on the other side of the Kerch bridge, before blasting it off the face of the earth. Massive drone attack serving as a decoy would be a no-brainer too I guess. Anyway, we can expect a confirmation in 15 minutes:

It seem that UA counterattack continues, some more info is coming:

Some suggest that it might've been Korsar, it certainly looks like one:

Now here's something that can easily put the attrition war on it's head. A pulse jet powered "Peoples missile" that (save for the guidance electronics) can be churned out by the thousands in small handicraft workshops. Here's what the creators write about it on Twitter: Here's a video about it: Assuming they are able to procur enough guidance modules (which I assume will be mostly of civilian type, so easily available), I don't see any why this project wouldn't be feasible? The costs are minimal, it is way simpler than Shaheds, the technology was largely proven 80 years ago already. And it should be easily scalable both in volume built, and in size/ performance.

Unsurprisingly, the baddest tanks in UA disposal were used to equip the baddest armored formation:

A very interesting interview with Ukrainian drone operator. It reads a bit like WB FlyEye sale pamphlet, but touches many subject related to drone employment in the conflict at hand. A really worthwhile read, it even mentions the infamous Bilohorivka crossing, which according to the interviewee, was spotted and targeted thanks to his drones. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2023/05/02/interview-pilot-explains-how-ukraines-crowdfunded-army-of-drones-saves-lives/

I'd say that Brimstone is much nearer to the ultimate "drone swarm" idea, compared to the Javelin. What it doesn't do (AFAIK) is communication between missiles. But it can be salvo launched, with each missile having been assigned a search box and autonomously looking for and engaging it's own target (according to the pre-programmed target type), and employs a sophisticated algorithm to deconflict the kill zone, avoiding multiple missiles hitting the same target. My private pet idea is to have 6 to 10 of these as submunitions in a cruise missile, to allow stand off attack against airfields. It's one thing to defend against cruise missile, and another against a swarm of 30 supersonic ATGMs, each being smart enough to identify and destroy a multi-milion dollar aircraft. Also, Brimstone is by far the coolest heavy ATGM, as proven by the Exhibit A below:

It looks like M2 in Ukrainian service will be called „Kitty Cat” (I do not dare to suggest another name, commonly used for both cats and ladyparts). UA are really good with social media and I love witty videos they usually post - but this one is just too much

Perhaps he meant the whole Donbas - in any case, these numbers are staggering.

There is (was…) an ICBM decommissioning facility in Pavlohrad, perhaps that is what was hit. Great PR stunt for RU, but hitting a well known target like that makes more sense than them suddenly getting their ISR right.

No airforce markings on these, must be civilian I guess...

A really excellent article about EU and NATO as "postimperial empires". It concentrates on how the war in Ukraine transforms Europe, but also explores the similarities and differences between these super-national entities and the empires of old. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/europe-war-russia-postimperial-empire

Drive straight at Rostov; with it lost both Crimea and Donbas are doomed Seriously though, the only thing I’m really sure of is that I’ll be surprised.

The real elephant in the room here is that UA is both not allowed to, and no getting weapons that would allow striking at RU proper. We could easily provide them with such capability and RU would be really hard pressed to continue with the war effort with air bases, but also refineries, major armament plants, training centres etc. taken out. We don't do that cause the potential nuclear escalation risk is too high to accept, not due to any particular technical reasons.

Zelensky is visiting Warsaw today, and there was a new arms deal announced: - PGZ will cooperate with UA Artem consortium in 125mm tank ammunition production - UA will purchase additional 100 Piorun MANPADS - the number of purchased Rosomaks is increased to 150 from the initial 100. It will include 3 Rak 120mm mortar companies, for a total of 24 plus support and command vehicles (that is assuming they will keep our TO&E). - there was no information about the configuration of remaining Rosomaks, but the fact that the announcement was made with 2 Hitfist30P armed vehicles in the background, one can at least take it as a hint. Below chart shows the organization of PL Rak company:`

Sorry for late reply, drive-by posting is all I can afford lately. You were of course right, the information about timing was a conjecture, not something stated explicitly. And while it remains unspecified, Sebastian Chwałek, the CEO of PGZ mentioned in the interview today that we are ready to deliver them "on an expedited schedule" - which means either directly from the Army stock, or the ones already manufactured by the plant and waiting for integration with turrets/ mission equipment, of which AFAIK there's at least 70. He also said that the details are not decided yet (at least officially), both IFVs with Hitfist30P AND ZSSW30 turrets are on the table, as well as (implicitly) Rak mortars and HMG RWS armed variants. My gut feeling is that the training on these is already ongoing for some time (there were leaked pictures of Ukrainian soldiers posing with Rosomaks a few months ago) and we'll see them in UA very soon. Here's the source video with the interview (in Polish only).

Announcing that on April 1st is definitely a kind of meta-humor, given that it is not a joke in any way. Some clarification/ details: - vehicles will come from PL army stock, and the new-builds will backfill the stripped units in due time - there was no info about the versions being sent, but the PL milnet seems to agree that it will be the IFV versions mostly. These sport a two-man OTO Melara turret with 30mm Bushmaster. It has thermals, but not a full hunter-killer setup usually found in more contemporary IFVs. These vehicles were initially purchased as urgent need during GWOT period and were liked so much that finally we got almost a 1000, including 300 IFVs. Unfortunately the initial deal with OTO was, let's say, suboptimal, and the army beancounters would surely be happy to get rid of them. Rosomaks are still being purchased, but armed with indigenous unmanned ZSSW30 turret. - given the announced number, it will probably mean equipment for 2 or 3 UA battalions with some support vehicles. I'd love to see a Rak company to be sent with them, to combat prove the whole concept of turreted 120 mm mortar and the PL implementation of it:

Not a photoshop, the are really slapping ERA blocks on the Leo2A4: