Huba

"Big if true" kinda news: If this is confirmed, the full blown civil war has started. Damn it's going to be difficult to sleep today!

Multiple reports now about RU security forces putting up roadblocks in Moscow and Rostov. CCTV and internet cameras reportedly down there. Main Wagner base in Molkino is reportedly surrounded by OMON with combat jets in the air.

Latest from Girkin: Edit: time zone difference was probably responsible for claims that Prig's messages were pre-recorded:

Jokes time: Zelensky now:

Oh wow! I just hope it isn't some deliberate PsyOp aimed at provoking UA to reckless attack (very unlikely IMO).

The tweet below won't embed for some reason, but it quotes Rybar who claims that RU Ministry of Justice added Prighozhin to the list of foreign agents. Whatever is going on in there seems to be very, very serious. https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1672328018063130625 Edit: and now this:

Comments from Girkin, sounds rather serious: omo

There are some good news coming from the ammunition department today: Apparently there's a way to feed 2S7s with US 203mm ammunition: US is ramping up its 155mm production, Rheinmetall is reportedly even further ahead in this regard. In the thread following the tweet below there's a quote from Reznikov about UA using 110K shells per month, and asking for 250K/ month. It is more than official number for RU production, which Shoigu himself said is 200K per month, and in reality probably a fraction of that. Arsenal(s) of democracy are really starting to work, and IMO going froward UA will be in better and better position ammunition wise.

To clear the remaining confusion about what was hit and how hard: Edit: and a video of Pantsir trying to engage the incoming Storm Shadows:

I did a little Google Earth exploring of Crimea, looking for potential chokepoints to RU logistic system: 1. There's only one relevant railway in Crimea, which crosses the Kerch bridge and then follows to Dzhankoy, where it splits into lines toward Melitopol and Kherson. Disabling it is IMO the low hanging fruit for the UA. Apart from the Kerch bridge itself, there are numerous bridges and overpasses along it, which when struck would put it out of order for some, and in many cases probably for a very long time. The goal here would be to force Russians to offload all the materiel to trucks as far from the frontlines as possible, instead of driving the trains up to Melitopol or Dzhankoy. Making them switch to trucks in Kerch instead of Dzhankoy adds around 200km to the distance trucks have to travel one-way. 2. There are three road connections between Kherson and Crimea: 2.1 The most direct one leads from Dzhankoy through Chonhar, through the bridges that were attacked today. As far as road transport is concerned this is the one RU would like to use (at least as long as they can use Dzhankoy rail yard) and UA to try to deny to them 2.2 Around through Perekop. No bridges or other chokepoints here, but choosing it adds around 200km to the trip, one way. 2.3 Through Arabat Spit. The shortest connection from Kerch > Semysotka > Henichensk and further to Zaporozhiya front. The spit is super narrow and around 100km long. There wasn't a paved road along most of its length, but Russians reportedly started to build one last year. With rail disabled I guess most of the traffic will go through it soon, as road travel from Kerch by this route is noticeably shorter than through Chonhar. At Henichenks there are 2 subsequent bridges that UA side could attack to mess with RU logistics. Also, in case UA reaches the coast of Azov somewhere, this road would be extremely exposed to drone/ missile strikes.

Another video of the struck bridge, damage looks to be more extensive than at the first glance indeed. But TBH, while it makes sense to put the permanent, convenient bridge out of service, the strait should be quite easy to cross with pontoon bridge, and then we'll be back to the whack-a-mole situation from Kherson. What makes the most sense though is attacking the railway bridge north of Dzhankoy, so no train will be able to reach Melitopol area. Even more sense of course to hit the Kerch bridge itself, or some of the rail overpasses just west of it.

Well, in case od ATACMS specifically, my suspicion is that there's some kind of a deal in place, where neither US nor Iran are supplying SRBMs to the belligerents. It might or might not be to UA advantage, but would explain the current status quo.

M30A1 seems to be doing quite OK against lightly armoured vehicles, but I still wonder if DPICM isn't the way going forward? Being able to straight out kill (as opposed to just disabling/ damaging) modern tanks and IFVs has to be worth something, especially for weapons which soon will have a range of 150km, or even up to 1000 as in case of PrSM. Maximising lethality against armoured area targets sounds like a no-brainer to me, given that conventional warfare is again back on the agenda. A "smart" cluster warhead with something like BONUS munitions might be an alternative, but rather an expensive one, and not near as universal as DPICM warhead is. I was about to make the same comment. Pics or it didn't happen, without evidence it's just morale boosting propaganda.

Before/ after video of the ammo dump that got Storm Shadowed in Rikove. Obliterated area is about 300 x 500 meters:

Rybar offers some interesting comment on that trench-clearing video:

<Gripen has entered the chat> So at the moment we have confirmed training of UA pilots on F-16s and Gripens, official talks with Australia about F-18s and whatever training France and the UK are providing. It seems that Ukrainian Air Force inventory is going to be as diversified as their tank fleet...

Looks like the operational pause is over an Ukrainians are on the move again. There are reports of heavy shelling by UA artillery in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Novosilka and Tokmak directions. More interestingly, multiple RU Telgrams report fighting in Nova Kakhovka where reportedly UA amphibious landing is taking place. To be taken with a huge grain of salt of course, but something is definitely going on:

Glimpse of things to happen next year:

Depending on a particular location, UA has to push around 30km into initial RU lines to put the coast road and towns inside HIMARS range. Achieving or preventing this is the main objective for both sides at the moment IMO, the mapped RU defence lines seem to be positioned with this in mind.

203mm ? Did they find a cache of old 8inch M110 ammunition? Perhaps it could work with 2S7 somehow, given a proper charge. At one point there were even rumors about Krab crew managing to fire 152mm ammunition from it, so...

No comment need:

"Radio Erewan News: Incident in Khabarovsk Krai! Chinese Army fired mortars at soviet harvesters working the potato fields. Harvesters returned fire with salvoes of rockets, obliterating the intruders, and then safely flew back to Moscow" That's more or less how the old joke went; heavy equipment is heavy equipment, no one will be splitting hairs here.

Interestingly, some RU Telegram channels seem to be worried that the flooding might in fact help facilitate UA landings by disorganising Russian defence lines. A long call of course, but perhaps this might in fact be a great opportunity for UA to establish themselves at the Kinburn Spit? Any Russian forces there are probably going to be cut off for some time at least. Edit: It appears that Girkin thinks the same:

And that's why this thread is so great, the scope of available expertise is off the charts! Given the scale of destruction and the timing alone, I'm firmly in the "Russians did it!" camp. It will obviously stop any Ukrainian attack across the Dnipro, for now... But summer is only about to start, I wonder if in a few months it won't open a whole new section of the front? There's a quite big artificial reservoir near where I live, which is being completely drained every few years and apart from the old riverbed itself, it is perfectly possible to walk on it's bottom after it dries up a bit, which I did personally multiple times. It is even more true in winter when the mud just freezes over. Edit: A map of the Kakhovsky Reservoir area before the dam was build:

If you think about it, it's way easier to find spare aircraft than spare tanks here in the West. There were some news today that even Germany is reconsidering participation in the aircraft coalition. My hunch is that during the winter and spring we'll see a huge air battle over Crimea, one that RU Air Force won't be able to win due to pure geography, after the land bridge is cut. Here is the link to the original source on the F-18s: