Huba
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Posts posted by Huba
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12 minutes ago, dan/california said:
So since Europe seems to finally understand that the way to make it stop is to win the bleeping war, can we go one more step and stand up the Flying Tigers part 2? F-16s flying CAS over Southern Ukraine by August would just the thing to finish off Russian morale once and for all.
Has to happen, there surely are people in the West just waiting for an opportunity to fly an F-16 against the Russians, some declared it openly on social media. Should be even easier for the ground crews, for whom the risk od rather minimal, given RU indolence at striking Ukrainan air bases.
Tongue in cheek, I wonder what will be the next fad after F-16s are sent? Some older E-2s could make a difference, what else? Submarines? AAVPs?
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Edit: @DesertFox was 5 seconds faster.
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1 hour ago, hcrof said:
I visited Kiev in 2015 and it felt little different to other low cost Eastern/central European cities at the time. Maybe like Prague when it was still popular for stag parties. Low cost flight there, attractive streets for a weekend of tourism, great outdoor Museum of culture, friendly people and good food and drink for very low prices. When they win this war, there will be a surge in tourism and assuming they get favourable trade deals with the EU the development will follow. Personally I would imagine Ukraine to turn out like Romania or Poland after a surge of recovery growth - quick start then consistent 5-7% every year to bring it closer to the EU average.
No need for immigration or condos at the beginning, they already have educated people and decent infrastructure so use that better while attracting foreign money who wants the cheap labour. Then move up the economic chain while attracting immigration from Russia etc.
This sounds the most realistic to me(from possible optimistic scenarios).
We can be pretty sure that there will be a lot of money pumped into Ukraine for rebuilding destroyed infrastructure and then for improving it in general, this is what happened in every country that joined the UE. Given from how a low level of GDP PP Ukraine will be starting and being a part of EU common market, investments and rapid growth would be assured, it is just too good an opportunity to miss. And one thing that can be said looking at Ukrainians here in Poland is that they are hard working people.
Perhaps the greatest long-term issue for UA is demography. Between low birth rate, war losses, and several millions refugees who might not want to go back the country will be hard pressed to keep growing economically. As you mention though, their chance might be immigration from Russia - there are tens of millions of people there who are (or can claim to be) of Ukrainian descent. If RU turns into a failed state that Putin is leading it to become, perhaps it might work somehow? Learn the language, get rid of RU passport and repatriate to a country (of your ancestors) that gives some perspectives?Edit:
Here's a stream from PISM Strategic Arc 2023 conference hosted by Polish Institute of International Affairs. It is completely in English, and included Q&A session with Polish Chief of General Staff gen. Andrzejczak and SACEUR gen. Cavoli (they even mentioned relation of mass and precision ;P). Surely beats TV if you need some background noise. -
I'd read it as "US contractors on the ground are fixing it". Great news nonetheless.
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WB Electronics, producer of Warmate, one of the best loitering munitions in UA disposal just announced that it managed to increase the production to 50 units/ week. Another (relatively small, but still...) nail in RU army coffin.
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That escalated quickly
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Telegraph's article sheds a bit of light on the "attack drones" pledged by the UK:
- these will be of "kamikaze" type
- with range longer than 125 miles
- effect on target similar to an artillery shell
- are specially designed and produced for use by Ukraine
- available by the hundreds and delivered in upcoming monthsIt basically adds up to a kind of a poor man's cruise missile of sorts. There was no information about the propulsion system, I'd love to see them go with pulse-jet, looks like a perfect application for it.
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Here's a video of missile launches over Kyiv that night (taken from RU Telegram channels, so I guess OPSEC does not apply). I counted 31 missiles launched in just 2 minutes, given the trajectories most seem to be PAC-3 CRI.
https://t.me/dva_majors/15159?single
Edit: and here are some more videos. Indeed the intensity is greater than anything we saw yet:Oh, there's official info from the UA side - reportedly 6 Kinzhals were shot down! Along with 3 Iskanders and some other stuff.
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1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
Seems there is going to be >100 AMX-10RC in Ukraine
UK promised "hundreds of AA missiles" (I'd love these to be SkySabre, but probably more Starstreak/ Martlet) and "hundred of 200+ km attack drones".
In Italy there was talk about air defence, meaning probably the SAMP/T, as the rest of their AA equipment is blocked by the perfidious Swiss. BTW, it was announced today that the first battery is already in Ukraine, and in my book takes the place of most likely culprit of the Saturday massacre of VVS near Kyiv. There are also rumours about numerous Centauros being refurbished in the same plant that fixed M109Ls.
The huge package from Germany was already discussed.But from all that Zelensky secured during his trip, the most important IMO are declarations of pilot training officially starting in UK (in summer) and in France (immediately!). Funnily, neither of these countries operates F-16, but at least in the UK the training will be "elementary" meaning either completely fresh pilots, or perhaps experienced ones re-training on NATO avionics on Hawks, before being assigned to actual combat aircraft. There is no info from FR at this point, but their training might be more directly focused on Mirage, that FR has dozens to spare.
What it means is that, come next year, or even earlier, we will see the new UA airforce entering the fray.Sources re. the aircraft training:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-welcomes-president-zelenskyy-to-the-uk-ahead-of-anticipated-ukrainian-military-surge
https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/1658175594004193281
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This made me giggle:
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There's a new RUSI article about the Storm Shadow. It is rather short, the most important excerpt below:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/putting-russias-army-shadow-storm
QuoteThe impact of Storm Shadow on the Russians, however, goes significantly beyond the targets struck. Confronting Russian forces with a new system that can evade their defences, which their operators do not know how to distinguish clearly from other targets, and which can be used in combination with existing Ukrainian capabilities – from loitering munitions to GMLRS or HARMS – will create conflicting imperatives for air defence crews. Do they start looking for objects with much smaller radar cross-sections? Doing so risks their being saturated and wasting missiles. If they are receiving a raft of false positives from electronic warfare systems, do they fire when they think they have a target, even though it could be friendly?
Perhaps most importantly, making Russian commanders afraid for their personal safety is a good means of degrading their prioritisation decisions. Employed well, in conjunction with psychological operations and other capabilities, Storm Shadow offers myriad opportunities to cognitively attack the enemy. In this sense, their existence in Ukraine’s arsenal may be as significant as their use.
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According to Anna Maria Dyner (one of the leading experts on BY in Poland), who quotes her own sources in Belarus, Lukashenka is suffering from myocarditis(inflammation of the hearth muscle) caused by an infection. He's not going to die (not soon anyway) but has to rest and it will take some time until he's back on his feet.
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There's some incoming info about Klischivka being liberated. If it's true, it means that the whole "pincer" south of Bakhmut is no more. Prigozhin has to be pissed
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1657414995167133698
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There are some speculations/ suggestions that the 4 aircraft that were shot down were in fact one group on a strike mission. Su-34 was carrying the gliding bombs destined for Chernihiv, Su-35 was providing fighter escort and choppers EW support. Makes sense in my opinion, similar strikes were being reported since some time. RU flying these missions repeatedly would be asking for an ambush to happen - add some new capability on UA side (either new SAMs or A2A missiles) and you have a recipe for disaster.
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Here's something interesting:
And here's more RU stuff burning:
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3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
I also have suspicious about AIM-120. Revenge for KAB strikes.
Inetersesting, yesterday Russians lost Mi-28 near Dzhankoy. Crew lost. Initially was claimed about accident. Today already they say allegedly during trainig flight, group of UKR UAVs were spotted in Crimean airspace and because of S-300 prepared to engage them, missile warning was anounced for crews with order return to base immediately. But one helicopter wasted a time and was targeted by S-300 missile. It has broken on two parts after hit. So, either friendly fire, or... AIM-120 too?
I'd really like to know what modifications were made on these Polish and Slovakian MiG-29s. It took a year to send them, I'm absolutely positive these weren't send there "naked". Thought to make use of the AIM-120 would require fitting and integrating a new radar, a daunting task for sure. All the "skunk works" going on with UA aircraft during this war absolutely deserves a book or two.
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There is even more good news today -it seems that the Swiss will finally lift ban on delivery of their weapons to Ukraine! It means ammunition for Gepards, but more importantly Aspide/ Spada/ SkyGuard SHORADs from Italy and Spain can finally be sent too. These are quite numerous and slated for replacement anyway - just a thing to announce during Zelensky's visit in Rome today
https://de.euronews.com/2023/05/12/schweiz-waffenlieferungen -
Now there's also a Su-25 being mentioned, on top of the 2 MI-8 and Su-34.
Edit:
Rybar says that it was a Su-35, not Su-25, which makes it even worse. He suggests an ambush by AIM-120 equipped UA fighters as the reason for this carnage (or saboteurs with MANPADS). -
2 hours ago, hcrof said:
I wonder if you you make a short ranged projector for a heavy shaped charge that descends at a steep angle onto a target such as a bunker. The weight of a law but with a bigger bang. You could also add some sophisticated accuracy aids to ensure a hit with what is essentially a one-shot mortar.
A big shaped charge landing from above would easily take out a bunker, armoured vehicle or troops in cover and wouldn't need to be super heavy if you accepted a range of 200-300m or so.
There's going to be a moment when these quadcopters that record all the videos will start being equipped with laser designators. One can be carried by the assault team as well. Have a 120mm/81mm mortar on standby firing laser-guided projectiles (or a 155mm, or 70m rocket launcher or...) and the impact on fight like this will be tremendous. All the pieces to make it work are already there.
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Some more maps of alleged positions around Bakhmut. Multiple RU telegrams suggest that RU has been pushed out from some/ all positions east of the water reservoir north of the city. If this trend continues, UA might soon reach Soledar, negating whole quarter of RU advance.
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An interesting map by col. Korowaj - helps to associate some numbers and names to the theatre of operations:
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This guy just decided to quit. Hard not to respect his fatalistic attitude in some way. Also, one can make an argument for mounting an loudspeaker on absolutely every drone in one's disposal, to manage situations like this.
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1 hour ago, Probus said:
Don't you think that if UA is going to maintain surprise, the opening push should be hot and heavy. I don't think there will be any doubt that operations have kicked off but there should be a good number of strikes on Logistics and C&C wherever the low hanging fruit is before things get going.
That is something I was pondering in my head since some time. To quote @The_Capt "...precision beats mass, massed precision beats everything". The actual main UA push (if there's one) will have to follow this principle. Some kind of "Shock and Awe", with the goal of the RU house of cards falling apart after a hearty kick being the goal. We can be sure of mass artillery strikes, HIMARSing everything worth expending a rocket, and GLSDB/ SS strikes on everything not in GMLRS range. I'm sure we are about to see the most intense concentration of firepower yet in this war.
17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:Ok, this rude, but...
I shall shortly delete...
The Dildo of Consequences seldom arrives lubed, to quote the NAFO doctrine
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11 minutes ago, womble said:
I was thinking earlier that the prohibition on striking targets "in Russia" might mean that the Kerch Bridge is (at least for now) off limits for Storm Shadow, given that it is distinctly a Russian project. Or maybe it just means they can only hit up to the sea territory limit. Depends on what the lawyers and escalation-prognosticators say, I guess.
The main span below which goes the main shipping canal is firmly on the UA side of the strait
I wonder if we are going to see the Himar o'clock redux in the upcoming weeks? One or two strikes similar to todays happening every day, while Muscovites in panic mode move everything out of range or try to disperse. BSF fleeing Sevastopol to Novorosyyisk, etc. etc.
I doubt UA got enough SS (this is going to be a fun abbreviation going forward
) to hit every important target in range, but the need to mitigate the risk of getting hit is going to mess up with everything they do on the occupied territories.
3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:Ok sorry, again posting just for laugh but this is heavenly one. Perigozhin-san.
LMAO!!
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Huba
To be taken with a grain of salt, but here's what GUR thinks about RU monthly missile production is:
25 Kalibr missiles
2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles
35 Kh-101 cruise missiles
5 ballistic missiles 9M723 Iskander-M"
Not too shabby, but at the peak of the missile campaign they were firing maybe 5 times as many and failed to achieve success.
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1659492405488254977