Huba
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Posts posted by Huba
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Hope that knowledge never comes in handy for anybody, but just in case...
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7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
That would be a major improvement of NATO in both the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Sea. I hope it will happen.
Baltic will soon be a NATO lake, and it looks like the Black Sea will follow, to a degree determined by the outcome of this war. No friendly shores for Russian ships on both those seas, apart from their own.
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3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:
I'm sure there are people here who know more about these things than I do, but the short answer is that the anti-missile defences on the Slava, Krivak II and Admiral Grigorovich (Krivak IV) class ships in the Black Sea Fleet are quite capable, but not comparable to AEGIS (highly integrated computerized fire control with a phased-array radar). I'd say 72 Harpoons probably could destroy the main striking power of the Black Sea Fleet but would hesitate to suggest that they inevitably would.
Thinking back to my days of playing Harpoon Classic, I'd guess an attacker would probably allocate 10-20 for the Slava (which would probably take at least 2-3 hits to sink), 5-10 per Krivak IV and 5 per Krivak II (one hit would probably at least disable a frigate), but none of that is based on any actual doctrine or calculation and it may all be overkill. The high end of those numbers doesn't leave much throw weight for taking on patrol boats and amphibs, but it does suggest that the article's claims are credible.
More to the point, it raises the prospect of the Black Sea Fleet being taken out of play by the deterrent value of the Harpoons. Warships are very hard to replace (probably all but impossible for Russia under the current sanctions) and the Russian Navy might be feeling risk averse after watching the land war.
Here's my take on the impact those AShMs will make, first a question though: do we know for sure that the missiles that will be delivered are indeed Harpoons? I heard many conflicting news, mentioning basically any missile at UKs disposal, starting with sea versions of Brimstone, up to Harpoons. I don't recall any confirmation being made. Anyway, assuming those are heavy missiles able to take out major surface combatants, not only patrol boats, and are delivered in large enough quantity( like 72 mentioned here), I thing that's what gonna happen:
- the potential landing around Odessa or in Budjak is out of the question, nobody's going to even think of risking that. Not that it was a viable option earlier anyway. What changes is that Ukraine can now reassign some of the anti invasion forces to different tasks, likely operations around Kherson.
- those missiles are too short ranged unfortunately to be a threat to Russian base in Sevastopol, you'd need at least 300 km range for that. Russian fleet still rules the high (black) seas and can launch remaining Kalibrs with impunity, no big impact here.
- now for the first interesting possibility. IF at some points Ukrainians are able to fight their way back to Sea of Azov shores, it means that it as a whole is denied to Russians more or less. No more supplying it's forces by the sea. On top of this, the whole Volga- Black Sea inland route would be closed to merchant traffic. This is really huge, makes you understand a bit why Russians are so insisting on the land bridge to Crimea. The Kerch bridghe won't be at risk though in my opinion. Even it was in range, Harpoons are way too small of a weapon to damage it sufficiently.
- the biggest potential for interesting things to happen lies however in fact that with Harpoons guarding the coast, Russians won't be able to do a close blockade of Odessa and whole Ukrainian Black Sea coast. We can discuss how many Harpoons would it take to hit Slava or Krivak etc, but I don't think that Black Sea Fleet would even risk their ships at all loitering in range of those missiles all the time. They will no longer be able to stop and board ships going from Romanian to Ukrainian territorial waters. If they want to keep the blockade up, they would have to outright attack those ships with AShMs from their fleet or from airplanes. Or by submarines. They can do it technically, but this approach has strong vibes of "Unlimited Underwater Warfare" of WW2, and is horrible from PR perspective.
This is the matter of greatest importance to Ukraine, as right now their economy is strangled by inability to export it's goods. A week ago there was supposed to be 25000 train cars waiting along the UE border, full of export goods. I see them trying to run the blockade. We might soon see some actual naval warfare.Edit: There's still the question of sea mines floating around. Ukraine might have tough time trying to sweep those already emplaced, and Russians can continue mining operations from aircraft/ submarines.
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Makes sense if you think of it this way, maybe it's better to introduce this equipment sooner then later. We should see soon enough. If this trends sets in, soon we'll see the Cold Ware era equipment from both sides finally going at each other, 30 years after we assumed it will never happen. Strange times indeed.
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1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:
Any idea what kind of artillery Ukraine may get from the U.S.?
HIMARS/ GMLRS combination would seem the most logical. Gives a hell of a lot of capability with small logistical footprint compared to traditional MLRS.
I'm not sure if tube arty makes sense at this point given the problems with ammunition supply that would ensue. Those rail transports of M109s might indicate otherwise though.
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Just now, Kinophile said:
Cesc, Huba! Welcome to the PutinIsSoScrewedGodWeHopeSo thread!
Cześć! It is refreshing after spending time in the "Russia is restraining itself that's whay they didn't win already" bubble.
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8 minutes ago, Vacillator said:
You're not asking on behalf of Vladimir are you? Just joking...
Busted!
Seriously though: I have no military background, but I was always interested in history, especially of the military kind, even studied it at the Uni. After two decades of reading one can be tempted to think that he understands some basic principles. This kind of mental exercise is a way to put it to the test. I of course say this with all the humility of a layman.
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3 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I am honestly not 100% certain for this particular image. But my point is that NATO receives this kind of data from SEVERAL sources, and the Russians would have to fool all of them, and every Ukrainian farmer with a cell connection, to generate meaningful surprise at this point. If the Russian's had any brains at all they would think about that for 90 seconds, and then go home. Really spoofing NATO/Ukr ISR would require six orders of magnitude more operational agility, comms security, and electronic warfare capability than they have shown so far. Impossible, no, and the Ukrainian General staff should be alert to the Russians trying to pull something, but isn't bleeping likely.
In light of the discussion above it looks like it's hardly possible to hide your forces, but I'd think that until those start moving, you can't fully predict how are they going to be used and plan accordingly, you have to make some assumptions.
What I was wondering is if it is possible to achieve some surprise on this level. Let's say that the Russian northern group of forces around Izyum doesn't push south at all, instead going west trying to encircle Kharkiv (not saying that this particular scenario is realistic, just an example, probably on a lesser scale too). Does this kind of thinking make sense at all ?
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13 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:
Maxar Satellite images are incredible. They are scattered throughout this tread if you want to see what I am talking about. They can even pick up bodies in the streets. One of the images was used to debunk the russian claim that the bodies in the streets of Bucha were done by Ukrainian soldiers or British Intelligence after the russians left Bucha. The image debunked that as the bodies were already there before Russian forces left.
Maxar is a private satellite imaging company. Imagine the even greater fidelity of military spy satellites. The russians can't pull off any strategic or operational surprises with all the electronic eyes on them, to answer a question you asked earlier, Huba.
1 minute ago, Nicdain said:It's satellite. It's a constellation of SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite-borne sensors owned by this private company (Capella Space https://www.capellaspace.com). Usually this constellation is meant to be used for weather purposes.
I'm aware of those Maxar images, they keep popping up quite often. I'd think that at least during the force build-up phase you could hide from/ obscure optical reconnaissance from the satellites, given their known trajectories and overfly times, clouds etc. IIR is not a thing on the satellite level afaik? But this SAR really looks like a game changer. I recall Soviet naval radar satellites from the old times, but those were very low orbit and quite limited - it is logical though that this technology would improve after a few decades. It's nice to learn about something new
One can imagine what the capabilities of military constellations might be.
Given that Ukrainians are fed data from those satellites in the real time, the only missing piece of the puzzle seems to be weapon systems able to capitalize on this. -
24 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Between NATO ISR, and the fact that Russian communications seem to be an open book, it would take a quantum leap for the Russians to generate surprise with more than a platoon sized force. Ukrainian command should be alert in case the Russians suddenly pull it together and try to feed them false information or something, but that would be a thousand times the level the Russians have operated at so far.
This is the level of detail Nato assets are getting on Russian movements. If Nato got off of its rear end and put it planes in the air there wouldn't be a Russian vehicle in Ukraine in 24 hours. And that is just one system, hiding just isn't a thing anymore for a mechanized force.
Do we know for sure that it comes from NATO asset outside of Ukraine airspace? Was it satellite or something like E8? Either way, holy crap that's impressive.
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44 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Maskirovka...pretty hard nowadays.
Sure it is. The Russian forces composition and their dislocation will be probably known in advance, buy I'd think how precisely will they be employed should be a bit surprising, that should be the aim at least I'd think. Or do you think they'll just run straight at the defenses hoping that firepower, numbers(?) and (to quote a classic) " total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see them through" ?
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2 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:
@HubaAh, a fellow refugee from that other forum that shall not be named. Welcome!
The very same, hi @Der Zeitgeist!
So, as this community takes pride in it's ability to predict the course of action in this war, I'd like to ask of your opinions/ ideas on a subject.
There seems to be more or less a consensus that in the upcoming days of weeks we'll observe Zitadelle redux in Donbas - everyone is expecting that, and both sides seem to be preparing for it. I'd think that if Russians hope to achieve some kind of success there, they'd like to achieve at least a degree of surprise when the operation finally starts. I'm thinking about some feign attack, maybe unexpected use of airforce, anything that would disrupt Ukrainian defensive plan really. How do you think they could achieve this, if this is at all possible?
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5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
But it ain't impossible, ain't it?
It isn't, just highly improbable. What is impossible is that this commission would prove it, even if it was right. They didn't even have access to the wreckage, all they did was reinterpretation of evidence produced by first commission mixed with clinical tinfoilhattery . They even accused the leader of first commission of lying, lost the defamation case and had to apologize. It was a circus.
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49 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:
Remember that plane crash that killed the president of Poland in 2010?
A special Polish commission that is investigating this event is claiming that Russia was responsible for that crash.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/polish-panel-russia-polish-leaders-plane-crash-84011174
If you're not versed in Polish internal politics it might sound serious, but it isn't. PiS (the current ruling party) blamed Russia and the then ruling Civic Platform for the crash in Smoleńsk since it happened, before any investigation started, and this conspiracy theory helped it grab the power in 2015.
After PiS came to power, this "special" commission was created as a away to keep the craziest of the leaders of PiS party, Macierewicz, busy so he didn't get in Kaczynskis' way. It existed for 7 years, siphoning money from the budget and at the moment nobody except the most hardcore loons treats it seriously. The commission made a bunch of accusations while producing no evidence whatsoever. The news of it finally finishing work didn't even made it to the headlines very much.
Also, as this is my first post on this forum: Hello everyone
This thread was recommended to me as concentrated on analysis and not pointless feces throwing, and after reading a large part of it I have to say the the level of insight it provides is really impressive.
Seriously though: I have no military background, but I was always interested in history, especially of the military kind, even studied it at the Uni. After two decades of reading one can be tempted to think that he understands some basic principles. This kind of mental exercise is a way to put it to the test. I of course say this with all the humility of a layman.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Huba
This is the kind of answer I hoped for. So the bottom line is that's unlikely for Russians to mix things up to a degree that would confuse the Ukrainian defense at this point, given apparent Ukrainian intelligence advantage. Even more so in a spirit of reversed Kursk.