FancyCat

I was wondering if Lyman falling before the annexation was important for Ukraine to spoil Putin's speech, I'm quite happy to see it seems to have made them angrier. Also looks quite bad, a annexation and then a defeat, sows a lot of doubt. China, no doubt will be calculating whether to pressure Russia more, I think if it looks to become stalemate, they won't pressure, but as long as Ukraine proceeds, they will do their best to keep Putin from pulling the nuclear option.

Why the hell are they still attacking Bakhmut for?

I'm still thinking Dugin's death, the release of the Azov, and other mysterious deaths in Russian elite and middle class are simply Putin giving notice to all he will still be top dog, whatever may come in the future.

Kadyrov will never be tsar, i doubt the racism will allow it to happen, but Prigozhin, does not seem anywhere close to a "peace with honour" type of fellow. He might well launch some low yield nuclear bombs, the way he acts.

I hope it's just propaganda cause otherwise that's just sad.

A reminder, 12 billion isn't being provided to Ukraine, a lot of it is replacing U.S stockpiles given to Ukraine, payment for expenses incurred in the process of supplying Ukraine, etc. Reviewing https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr6833/text 4.5 billion to Ukraine directly. 3.7 billion for Ukraine, including supporting first responder efforts in Ukraine. The rest for buying or increasing supply of equipment needed to replace what's been sent to Ukraine or for future shipments to Ukraine. Then the rest im not exactly sure if given to Ukraine or merely to cover costs relating to sending aid to Ukraine, like operations cost for flights shipping stuff to Poland?

is the translation right?

More weapons!

Note, any future plans for the annexation of further Ukrainian territory, you need Kherson at least to push into Mykolaiv and Odesa. You can afford to lose the northern part of Luhansk oblast, and even whatever of Donetsk oblast, as a retreat to the prewar lines is fine as a military measure. (Especially as you have the Russian-Ukrainian land border to place forces all along to attack. Ukraine has lost the Sea of Azov, the opening of the Dnipro River to the Black Sea, and Russia can still hope to prevent economic recovery of Ukraine thru its control of the Black Sea pending another day when Ukraine is vulnerable to invasion again.

Something to keep in mind, in terms of signaling to Russia that nuking Ukraine will bring a automatic escalatory response by the West, actions like this will be more important than words. (When managing escalation, clear translation and forewarning is needed) A simple "Russia will be punished" statement from Biden will not suffice. At least in my opinion.

Finland and Sweden began NATO membership process without going thru the Membership Action Plan, as seen here, so a established position was made. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm And talked here: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-finland-and-sweden-can-join-nato-with-unprecedented-speed/ Assuming this was coordinated, the intent here I'm guessing is to raise the cost of nuclear attack to be unsustainable for Putin and to concretely establish long term NATO and western support to Ukraine. Ukraine does not need NATO membership to be protected, the bilateral security guarantees given to Sweden and Finland show that. Craft them to be specific for opposing nuclear escalation and that might be great. Something to keep in mind, we really don't want nuclear warfare use to be normalized. A way of ensuring it cannot be normalized is raising the cost and being very concrete on the potential for punishment. Putin has been relying, betting on Western inaction, this is a clear signal, if it was coordinated by Ukraine with the West to Putin that he needs to not nuke Ukraine. Now if it wasn't coordinated, then likely it's not too big a deal. It's rumored there is a NATO press conference with the Gen Sec. today. We shall see.

If you recall, at the point of Sweden and Finland requesting to enter NATO, the UK and other NATO nations extended a bilateral security guarantee to in case of Russian attack before NATO accession could occur. This could be the same here, except it would only apply to nuclear attacks by Russia. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/johnson-security-assurances-sweden-and-finland-not-just-symbolic If this move was coordinated with the U.S and a few NATO allies, it would be a very powerful move to ensure Putin cannot escalate to using nukes.

Reminder, a floating peace term was Ukraine staying out of NATO. Plus, if Russia wants to nuke Ukraine, this would resolve it nicely......

Also some stuff about U.S biolabs was in his speech. I'm leaning towards this being a reflection of his true mindset. It's a very ranting speech filled with grievances. Most aimed at the west. Not a lot of talk about Ukraine at all.

Those are not just internal issues for the west tho, they are internal and external issues for Russia, there's been a focus on LGBT values being exported by the west to weaken Russia for example.

Destroying NS1 and NS2 makes a lot of sense now, his speech is a complete broadside against the West.

Christ, no hint of deescalation.

For those unaware, this is a pro-Russian twitter user, useful for getting a more pro-Russian bent. He spent the last few days crowing about how Ukraine was walking into a trap in the Lyman region.

So BARS-13 is RU Nat...I hope they surrender but if they think they would rather bet on fleeing, what is Ukraine to do to stop them from being pummeled on the road? Oh well. Anecdote below, longer thread. Does not compare to hard data, but hard data shows millions of family connections over the border, yet all evidence points to threatened mobilization causing way more dismay than unrest connected due to family relations in Ukraine. In a age where connecting across borders is easier than ever, it seems to have done little to stem the aggression.

What I want to emphasize from the linked post, why are there attacks on civilians with drones, artillery and missiles while Russians are facing encirclement and collapse on the front lines? (Obviously maybe there is logistical and rear military targets but still....) How much of this is a Putin directed 'not one step back" and "terror into the citizenry" of hybrid warfare? What about the General Staff?