billbindc

Yep to that last point. To me, all signs point to Putin taking more radical measures to *forestall* a need to flee, not to make it easier. Prighozin and his zek-sturm, the preservation of Chechen military capability, adopting a lower key in public affairs, etc, all tell me he's digging in. After all, there's simply nowhere in the world where he's ever going to have the freedom of action and thus be safer than Russia. It's that simple.

If Putin has an exit strategy, Venezuela is a pretty bad one. Yes, the country is a shambles and very anti-American but it's also a shambles that needs money and has rulers who aren't particular about how they get it. Sudan extorting OBL is a primary example the Russians won't miss. Look instead to Saudi Arabia as a more likely choice. It was the power to defy the US to a significant degree and it has form...as its hosting of Idi Amin should suggest. And MBS can claim that he's taking one for global peace by giving Putin an out.

Notable: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/modi-to-skip-annual-summit-with-putin-over-ukraine-nuke-threats

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/europe/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-intl/index.html I would strongly suggest a close reading of what Putin said. He is concocting a scenario where the US attempts a disabling strike and Russia must launch before the missile land to preserve strike back capability. That's a fantasy scenario. He knows it, the BRICs know it and we know it. But, it makes good 'look how dangerous I am' propaganda without actually changing Russian use doctrine and acts as a messaging corrective for the fairly sober statements he made earlier that he intended his reluctant cooperators to hear. This is how the Russians play the game.

Putin is of course entirely untrustworthy but that doesn't mean his statements are not indicative of Russian policy. Remember he's not just talking to us. India, China, Brazil have all been highly concerned with the prospect of nuclear escalation and clearly Russia felt compelled to calm them down. That's good.

It should be noted that the Biden administration didn't prioritize Griner. They pushed for both as Whelan's family has stated themselves. The Russian government is still pretending to believe Whelan was a spy and won't deal for him yet.

The still definitive take on Bout: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/03/05/disarming-viktor-bout Agree with all of the above with the further observation that getting Griner out is largely *popular*. The POTUS is supplying a war that requires political buy in from Americans. This is a way to buttress that buy in. Yes, it's a moral hazard and yes, I'd love to get Whelan back too but husbanding approval for billions of arms is crucial and is certainly the key consideration above all else.

One notable thing from that speech is the rhetorical climbdown from nuclear weapons. I think we can say at this point that that option is pretty much off the table.

The simplest answer to the question of "what's in it for Russia to continue" is that a) it still has the power to and b) the main actors in control of the government can't see any better outcomes in doing so. Much of the analysis focuses on the second condition but given the realistic limits to Russian capability at some point the first condition will determine outcomes regardless of anyone's decision making process.

That reads less a farce to me and more as a potential setup to him WIA/KIA. If nothing else, it’s a sign there is some very serious maneuvering going on in the power vertical and the Prighozhin column is less powerful than it may appear.

Or pretty much every significant character in Iain M. Banks.

As a matter of policy, I won't buy a book from anyone who has a favorable take on how the PRC treats the Uighers or the democratic yearnings of its youth.

This is going to get interesting:

I would put it this way: it’s possible (and in this case likely) that someone inside an organization like the NSA would act like an enemy agent because they had become one in their own head without connection to the opposition. Where and at what point those connections first happened is something we aren’t going to find out unless some sort of regime opposed to Putin takes power in Moscow but…the position Snowden was in would certainly have been of far more use to Moscow if he stayed in it. That he left and the way he left are pretty convincing evidence to me that he imagined that he would somehow martyr or heroize himself without paying the full consequences. He also burned pretty much any leverage he might have had in the process with the now-masters in Moscow.

US officials have stated off the record that that they don't believe he was an agent. Rather, a disaffected narcissist who didn't feel he was appreciated. You know, like Glenn Greenwald. But at this point, Snowden is a wholly owned subsidiary of Russian intelligence. His lawyers are entirely tied to the SVR and he acts within a precisely laid down set of rules to extend his propaganda value to Vladimir Putin.

It seems like the decision to provide Ukraine with more long range precision fires has already been made: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/29/ukraine-first-operator-precision-bomb/

"My bet is that the missing pieces are bound up in OPSEC that likely transcends the UA itself."

Everything about the RUSI assessment screams to me "We aren't hearing about something pretty important" that likely was operative in both Donbas and the Gomel axis.

One of my few claims to fame is that of having seen Tom Waits live...three times. I'll show myself out.

In the House, it's extraordinarily difficult for a bill to get to floor unless the majority allows it. So, yes, one or two votes in a tight majority can hold up pretty much anything. Will that be sustainable over time? Probably not. But we shouldn't underestimate the mischief that is about to be wrought.

Not an offensive...but a defense that will grind down Russian units faster than they can be replaced, to the degree that they cannot be rotated or such that they will be make reinforcing Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia less likely. A corrosive defense you might say.

Hertling is a legit nice guy. If you reach out to him Capt I’d bet there’d be a fruitful conversation. Also…looks like Ukraine may have decided to break Wagner in Bakhmut:

The game is going to be that any discrepancy is going to be used by House Republicans to hold up aid: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-scrambles-track-20b-ukraine-aid-house-republicans-warn-audits

The folks selling AI are very sure AI will change everything...