billbindc

This. Putin is looking for escalations that might drive a wedge into NATO that do not involve nuclear weapons. Why? Because it's been made very clear to him by everyone from Modi, to Xi to Kim Jong Un that the world is against him if he drops a nuke. So, he's digging around in the drawer for alternatives. The play here is to put some sort of energy onus on Poland and Ukraine vis a vis the rest of Europe, to show that other pipelines can be destroyed too, and to give the world something to think about other than the collapse of his military jugger-naught. He's also putting a carrot out of reach for the Gazprom clique, showing will, etc. That the move underscores his unreasonableness and untouchability to Germany seems not to have fit into his calculations.

"When he reached the New World, Cortez burned his ships. As a result his men were well motivated." Captain Ramius, Hunt for Red October

The key thing to remember is that already at this point, Putin is not the only Russian who might be negotiating with the West.

It's the Nicholas II problem. Once old Nicky took the reins directly, everything could be and was blamed on him. I can't shake the feeling that the Russian military knows that and is simply letting inertia and friction have free rein. Also interesting to note that the FSB and associated security organs seemed to have not bothered with measures to control the borders despite the completely obvious rush of military aged males that were likely to head for the exits. Inaction like that starts to look like choice.

The thing about Putin just not doing the leg work...or perhaps I should say, not breaking legs until the legwork is done semi-properly...is sticking in my craw a bit. Yes, Russia's got a lot going on right now. Yes, war is really hard and friction's a bitch. Yes, cultural shambolism is going to be there wherever Russian militancy is sold. But...they are *losing* a war that could have them swinging from gibbets if it gets much worse and it's been obvious to anyone even if they have any access to Western media...which Putin certainly does. They *know* that just dumping bodies into the field, pointing and saying "Kyiv's that way" is barely even a stopgap. They *know* screwing mobilization this badly from the get just multiplies every other problem down the line. I can't help but think that this looks a lot like a government that's phoning it in because there's nothing much in the way of direction from the top. Something's up with Putin either cognitively or in terms of his power to direct the state. It's that simple.

This approach was quite common amongst Americans before the end of WWII. I don't blame them and I won't blame you however much I abhor it. And I abhor it because it's exactly the kind of thinking that you are and should be fighting against. In the event, wiser heads prevailed and we took a softer course. As a result, our enemies then became, almost unthinkably, some of our best Allies. That's maybe something you should consider.

Foreign Policy Mag is catching up to the forum faster and faster these days: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/27/baltic-states-ukraine-war-russia-germany-military-aid/

It’s an interesting story that in the end comes down to a similar situation: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-submarines-japan-defence-in/how-france-sank-japans-40-billion-australian-submarine-dream-idUSKCN0XQ1FC

NATO is hard enough to keep going in the same direction and the American economy is deeply intertwined with the continent’s economic health. You are smoking better crack than I have access to if you think that the US would want to risk what ability we have to keep Europe pointed sort of in a single direction (sometimes anyway) or those economic needs.

Oh yeah. The loudest complaints were coming from the French government official who led the team that snagged that deal out from under the Japanese consortium that originally held the contract. Seriously.

As America is pouring it on in Ukraine, working on the containment of China and rearmament of Taiwan, building Australia's sub fleet, etc, etc. I mean I get it, you aren't a fan but let's stick somewhat to reality here.

And by subtracting them from the alliance that would make that better? Come on, now. That's silly.

Price caps on Russia gas are coming, very soon.

Germany is in no position to force Poland or anyone else to do it. The efficacy for Russia in Germany politics that they could quietly push German industry to make their case. That's at best, attenuated if not eliminated.

I agree all around (of course I do, you cited me!) but it should be noted how utterly obtuse this is in the longer run. Putin's whole strategy was to split support for Ukraine. That means getting Germany and France to start to oppose the war on the grounds that Europe needs the energy Russia provides. This may be a Pollyanna take from our perspective...but it's at least a strategy of sorts. By blowing up the pipeline, Putin has very effectively taken that issue out of Germany politics and EU politics in general. He's *further* unified his enemies. I can't say it makes me happier though. He's simply continuing to double down his bets with the nuclear option being the final set of chips.

Dan, the above is my take. Three pages back already. Yikes.

If Germany was keeping up in the "how much" department the "what" question would be far less salient. It's doing neither and worse the German government is managing to be smug about it.

Which side was Ukraine on in that fracas, hmmmmm?

I will admonish, no more. But the above should be admonishment itself.

Sorry, but critiquing the US on its provision of supplies is simply *not on*. We've performed relative miracles in this war and without the Biden WH's early and clear eyed understanding of what was coming it would already be over in the worst possible way. I understand Germany's issues and I'm even somewhat sympathetic but no, you don't get to do the above.

In terms of capability, this is way beyond what Ukraine could do. Nobody else has the incentive to except in my estimation Russia. Festung Rosskiy Mir in full effect.

Putin wants to lock Russia in. Just turning off the pipelines allows a potential successor to offer a reversal. It's a bargaining chip to get Western support (that he's taking away from a potential successor, to be clear).

It is quite likely from where I sit that the Russians did this themselves. Ukraine may seriously want them shut down but Zelensky would not risk creating an environmental disaster in Danish, German and Swedish waters. He would also not challenge their territorial sovereignty in so crude a way. Furthermore, the gas was barely flowing anyway. I have no inside knowledge but everything here points to Russia. With no gas flowing, the carrot wasn't getting them much so they decided to go all stick by destroying transfer capability completely. This has bunch of knock on effects including showing will, making clear that Norwegian pipelines can be equally destroyed, ruining a potential carrot an anti-Putin faction could offer the West, etc. A very stupid move of course, since at a stroke a lot of influential German manufacturers now have no reason at all to lobby for a softer policy. The possibility of Russian gas is likely now gone so cold turkey and a new energy dispensation is the only sensible policy. Typical Putin.

And he’s KGB. An interesting coincidence. Now we just need a patriotic sub captain to do his duty.