billbindc

Folks hiding things tend to do it best from the people that understand the stakes while they will hide those things the least from people that don’t. Even so, there’s not a lot of vetting going on at the local bar stool.

This definitely happens. But we shouldn’t underestimate how difficult it is to find someone willing to pass negative information to a vetting officer. People have to live, more or less, with the person they are suggesting should be denied and that’s not something someone is going to take lightly unless there is something very obviously serious going on. And often, not even then.

Another thing that was apparently happening is that the rules on phones being in SCIF's were only being somewhat observed while spot checking for folks taking documents has become quite...spotty...at least in some places. One suspects there is a global rewrite of rules and enhanced enforcement effort happening as we speak. Betting the Pentagon was the worst offender.

No...the journalists are doing their job and in the process have probably moved the case forward more quickly. I think you have to see what happened as a classic case of modern loneliness, anomie and a nerveless ignorance of the real world. Yes, the guys on that board were disaffected but they didn't seem to care much either way. They were simply in their bubble looking for reassurance and to one up each other. The naivete on display (that kid doesn't realize he has zero choice in supplying the name of "OG") is simply staggering. Tom Nichol's 'lost boy' thesis gets another data point.

There's a guy right now working on a US military base who is realizing that the entire apparatus of the US government is about to land on him: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/ My guess yesterday...based in part on things I read here was: Poster of the docs...something like an E-5, male, probably posted overseas, under 35, not coupled and with a large online presence.

I take their opinion quite seriously but it's just important to take into account how their perspective changes what they look for and how they interpret it. Also, there's a yawning gap in our knowledge too...we don't have any idea how the US, Ukraine or our allies have worked to address the issues identified. Starting with...you can believe that El-Sisi got knocked off of his chair by the US reply to that proposal.

From what I have observed, the folks with significant intel work have never worked from home. If anyone took NOFORN, etc material out, there is going to be little sympathy for that excuse.

Shashank is a good guy and certainly one of the better commentators on the war in Ukraine but I think there's some very important caveats that should be hanging over these revelations: 1. While US has been quite good at penetrating Russian signals and assessing Russian strategy it's been quite bad at assessing Russian execution or lack thereof. 2. The US has been even worse at assessing Ukrainian ability to organize and succeed at offensive and defensive action. 3. Reported intelligence ("40,000 Egyptian missiles!!!") isn't the same as executed policy ("Delivery of those missiles? <insert shrug emoji here>). 4. Definitions of success color intelligence assessments. The Pentagon would absolutely *love* to get this war over with by Christmas. That translates into seeing something like the recapture of the rest of Kherson and cutting the land bridge to Crimea as a "modest territorial gain" despite the fact that in strategic terms it is likely decisive. This is a leak of a moment in time from a highly interested player with strong institutional and national interests. Caveat emptor.

Right now, there is a very deep analysis being done of staff associated with Milley and the forensics of where the leak appeared. It will radiate from there. Don’t be surprised if some staffer was leaving his office unlocked and his 17 year old kid was pilfering documents. Years from now, we might find out just how powerful NSA analysis can be.

Seeing more data on this and it’s definitely a real leak with some after the fact doctoring in various versions. It’s *not* so far another Snowden level event despite what some of the more excitable folks in media are saying. It’s not even clear there is much operational value to the leaks for Russia. It will be a hit on Ukrainian trust vis a vis the Pentagon/NATO for now. I like the theory that there’s an ideologically driven E-5 somewhere in the food chain who let this out to his groyper pals and it got out of hand. The spread of topics and delivery method seems to rule out anything that you could call professional. Of course, the jail time will be.

Yep, @MrLucca from groyperville. The dissemination screams disinformation op to me. It was chicken fed to a clown by someone after it had been either confected/altered who didn’t seem to realize what he was putting out. Also, if the information was as hot as some assert, it would be far better for the Russians to keep it to themselves so that Ukraine wouldn’t adjust to the Russian discovery. The caveat, of course is that the GRU are often quite incompetent so <insert shrug emoji here>.

It seems like it was all funneled through 1 guy and then slowly spread out from there. It almost seems like he didn’t quite understand what he was doing. He closed his twitter account today and was essentially saying “I’m f*&$ked”.

There are some interesting anomalies:

Pax is a short hand for individuals.

I would call this a real but stepped on document. The original seems legit enough given the tags and formatting with a lot of the boring information you would expect. There are also obvious changes made to losses that are exactly what you would expect the GRU to botch in that way. I have gone over them pretty thoroughly and I am less than impressed at the intel take. Russia already knows how many HIMARS it has been hit with more or less. It already knows pretty clearly where it is going to be hit and approximately when. It already knows when and where the mud will firm up. There's little in there to show them the most important thing...what the tempo, timing will be. If this was really hot stuff, it wouldn't be out there in the wild. Most of the advantages of knowing something strategically important go away when your enemy realizes you do. So...call it moderately effective agit prop. PS: it looks like the first version of these docs were on 4chan in early March and somewhere "even dumber" according to a journalist before that.

Both sound and it suffers from the same strategic problems Japan had. First, it cannot control the security of its energy supplies and it cannot solve that problem in any conceivable way. Second, it can't really gain the assets it might seize (the semiconductor factories) without effectively destroying them. Perforce, while China would prefer an anaconda strategy it will instead be driven towards a quick strike strategy that is unlikely to succeed. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

1. Ukraine wasn’t anywhere near getting into NATO. 2. We are bringing both the eggs and the bacon. Ukraine is supplying the staff, setting the table and cooking the meal. 3. Yes…US involvement is discretionary. But only in the sense that France/Britain’s was after the invasion of Poland. 4. Actually the Buchananites were/are largely protectionists. To claim they are free traders is pretty amazingly wrong. 5. Which is why ‘interventionists’ have the ability to impose sanctions. They promote trade and so have trade to sanction. 6. John Quincy Adams also said: “When (an advocate) is not thoroughly acquainted with the real strength and weakness of his cause, he knows not where to choose the most impressive argument. When the mark is shrouded in obscurity, the only substitute for accuracy in the aim is in the multitude of the shafts.” Finis

And of course, Ukraine was nowhere close to getting into the EU much less NATO. Put another way, you don’t get to invade someone because they fruitlessly aspire to join a defensive alliance that would protect them from you and get to claim that you’ve been wronged.

There *may* be some misdirection at work. I mean, if you have a bunch of chaps sitting around who you can't really get into the fight while you are getting HIMARS'd then maybe you add dummy...or back up...nodes whereever. It might complicate enemy ISR/targeting and it looks good when you have to do a self assessment at the long table with the boss. I don't think any of this is at all sophisticated or particularly useful to win the war, mind you, but analyze the motivations at work in the Russian army at this point and you can see where it leads.

More than anything, the trench lines look like make work for mobiks that couldn't be properly armed and put in the line a la the Imperial pososhniye iyudi. It's "look busy" as a strategic decision.

Parebo, imperator.

What happened with Caesar wasn't about what he might have done...violent one man rule had already been done far more brutally by Sulla and others before him. In fact, Caesar was notable for lack of bloody mindedness when winning elite struggles in Roman politics. That is partly why Brutus and others were there to kill him in the first place. What was happening was a culmination of the inherent stresses in Roman governance between the old Senatorial elites who were able to dominate early Rome and the populists like Caesar, who had figured out that in an imperial setting there were other avenues to more successfully dominate the Roman scene. If you want to pick a good starting point, go back to Marius, his reforms and the Jugurthine War. And sorry in advance Steve for going so far off topic. I imagine I will be tempted to until the rasputitsa dries up.

Thanks for this. And if any of you are about to start talking about the 'end of the Republic' fair warning that I take few prisoners on that topic.

You will obviously not be surprised to find out that drones are completely illegal in the District of Columbia to the degree that any drones that have GPS in them will simply refuse to fly within the bounds of the city. One sees little public comment about the dangers of drones but discreetly, the US government is clearly thinking about it all the time.

<taps sign> https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/03/nord-stream-bombing-yacht-andromeda/