billbindc

All of this. To your latter point, you get at a key reason why Russia continually burns itself in this war. Of a certainty, the leadership of the MoD knows what their ammo usage is. They know what they are going to need to have a chance at blunting a Ukrainian offensive. They know that, at the very best, Bakhmut acts as a shield to the LOC's south and west of it and has otherwise been a vast waste of combat power. But none of that is all that important to Putin. Of course, he wants to win but the real goal is first to retain power and that requires controlling the Russian government. Which means, of course, that making sure the regular armed forces don't get above themselves in the course of a long, high intensity war. The war, first and foremost for Putin, is in Moscow.

Putin is a highly effective player in internal Russian power plays. What he has constructed here is a situation where Wagner is his attack dog, provider of 'successful' military narratives, 'why are we unsuccessful?' military narratives and yet doesn't control its own logistics, supplies and ammunition. Meanwhile, the MoD controls those sinews but is continually embarrassed by accusations of malfeasance, ineptitude and wrecking. Putin then sits above the fray and Russians see it continually demonstrated that both power centers must kiss his ring to prevail. The model here isn't Stalin, btw...look more similar to how Hitler used the SS/SA against the power of the German military. It's all personalist faction juggling.

From Putin's perspective, the MoD is one institution that he absolutely must keep in check. One way to do that? By having Prigozhin and Wagner as a stick to beat them up with. He must also have convenient scapegoats when this is all done. In this case, he has two that spend their time attacking each other instead of him. But it's not just Putin driving this per se...you also have Shoigu, Gerasimov, Kadyrov and Prigozhin with their own agendas that require, at least for the moment, vying for Putin's favor. Is it terrible optics? To us, of course. In Russia? I think I'd say it has been shown to work for dictatorships in that milieu.

The Putin directed theatrics are over for now...again.

Demographically, India passed China this year.

There are some pretty smart folks out there who think Erdogan doesn't honor the result if he loses. Powder dry on this one.

Having been around for the era of Sovietology...when knowing who stood where at the Victory Day parade in relationship to the General Secretary was a key piece of information...this is exactly how I see it.

Agreed. But it’s a reflection, however distorted, of what is going on behind the scenes and there are some core realities…such as the political dangers for Kadyrov if he were actually to take up Bakhmut’s defense…that we can parse. It’s also clear that Putin and maneuvering in his shadow is at the core of this episode.

My read on this is that Kadyrov got a call telling him what it’s going to be and he’s trying to make willing: https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1654947056530628611?s=46&t=kGSIb3jBDfCXyFsEkT53NQ

Kadyrov is apparently furious about the whole thing and publicly swatted Prigozhin for complaining. He clearly is unwilling.

Also likely a propaganda effort. These sorts of scenes bring strong memories in the region:

Prigozhin is putting Kadyrov in a very bad spot by doing this. For all its manifest faults, Wagner could actually fill trenches with troops and launch attacks. Kadyrov cannot and if he really tries to he will be damaging his own power base in Chechnya directly. Yet another sign that Prigozhin lacks the ability to grab power. Months ago he was cooperating with Kadyrov to seize control of the MoD. Now he's burning that bridge.

Rothrock's tweet is interesting. It suggests that the MoD, with Putin's support, is being at least somewhat vigilant about any inroads Prigozhin might be making in the military.

As I have been won’t to say, the regime will look solid until suddenly it looks like it’s falling apart. That could be happening. But I don’t see it being Wagner or Prigozhin. He already tried once to take over the MoD and got slapped down easily. He doesn’t have natural allies in the security service (they are all rivals) or in the big money oligarchs. (who resent his use of the Putin connection to horn in on big money contracts and see him as a crude upstart). I interpret his current wailing not as a sign of his strength but of his weakness. If he really had the juice, he’d have the ammunition. Watch for shifts in the public statements of the State Security council, personnel changes there or in the bigger ministries. Look for a situation in which Putin starts to be harder to find in public settings.You are right to suggest there are multiple games being played here. Prigozhin isn’t playing to win it…he’s playing it survive it.

He can't attack the Russian Army leadership in any kinetic sense because he'd be out of food and ammo almost immediately. He can't get Wagner to Moscow in force without cooperation from the Ministry of Transport which is run by a strong Putin loyalist. He can yell, threaten to pull out and when/if Putin decides he is a nuisance he'll be summoned to a meeting in Moscow. If he doesn't go or doesn't follow the orders he gets when he arrives he is done.

It's clear Prigozhin doesn't control his own logistics and he depends for his survival on the favor of one VV Putin. As long as those facts pertain, Prigozhin is a pawn who thinks he's a bishop.

I'm pretty sure Prigozhin would be fully zinc'ed in a week if he tried it. I also highly doubt that Wagner..or what's left of it...is going anywhere Putin doesn't completely authorize. The dog doesn't get to determine where it gets walked.

If you think of the war in Ukraine as a war for power in Moscow, it's a lot simpler to parse these guys.

It's interesting to watch this sub plot play out. There's a line and Prigozhin seems to believe he knows where it is. I'm not so sure he does.

A stern determination to fight the fascist Ukrainian enemy this is not:

Time will tell. Meanwhile, GPS spoofing is now roiling the Moscow taxi industry: https://t.me/official_moscow/16882

Nor would Dugin, Prigozhin, Girkin, Kadyrov, Patrushev, etc.

It's almost certain that this attack, if it's Ukrainians, was conducted at some remove from the government so there would have been no IO preparation. But...the ambiguity itself is useful to Ukraine. Western pundits are going out of their way (inaccurately IMO) to blame it on the Kremlin. Within Russia, every faction is pointing fingers at everyone else either in attribution or critique. And yes, just a small boom...but Dmitri Alperovitch describes the Kremlin as being "in a panic" about this attack. And they are right...the narratives are that Russia can't defend Moscow, can't hold Victory Day parades, can't win the war and can't even tell who it was that did it. If I were in covert action business for Ukraine, I'd be quite happy what my little bomblet achieved at this point.

My wild guess is that this is an affiliated but essentially independent Ukrainian operation. Kyiv would always want deniability for the obvious benefits we can see in the furious finger pointing that's going on. And the goal is to demonstrate to Russians that the war is going south, fast, which is not going to be a goad for conscription in any way. To your point about the last Czar above...I asked a Russian origin journalist I know on the day the war started what they thought would happen ultimately. The response: "Nicholas II?".

If you look at Putin's history, his false flags have tended to be well thought out (as you note above, from his perspective) and have a definite and defined aim. When 2014 happened, Russia rolled out an entire campaign of soup to nuts propaganda. Before this phase of the war began, Russia had a slew of false flag operations and had done a ton of media work that allowed a smooth propaganda roll out supporting the effort. But those were big ongoing events. The infamous apartment bombings are a better analogy and were also clearly presaged and followed by defined propaganda efforts. And more to the point, the accomplished goal was to create insecurity and then follow it up with a security clampdown that showcased Putin's ability to stabilize the country and justify his regime's right to rule. What do we have in this situation? Two drone attacks that were not publicized. The public found out because a local Moscow Telegram channel posted the video and then it fitfully came out followed by a series of ever morphing Kremlin statements and a frantic order banning all drones in Saint Petersburg and Moscow. There was no preparatory build up and by tonight it looks like Peskov is going to blame it on an alliance between Satan and Hunter Biden. Finally, there's no actual thing Russia can reasonably do to respond. Escalating to NBC has all of the drawbacks it previously possessed while escalating in conventional terms is already going full bore. Unless and until we see evidence of actual planning, Occam leans strongly towards not the Kremlin.