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IdontknowhowtodoX

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Posts posted by IdontknowhowtodoX

  1. 10 hours ago, Butschi said:

    Let's calm down a little, shall we?

    This unpleasant "discussion" made me dig out a test I did some time ago. I've been doing data analysis for basically all my professional life, so I always suffer a bit when reading these threads. So, as we've been discussing on page one or so, anecdotal evidence ("here look at this battle, spotting is broken!!!!") is meaningless. But also doing "experiments" is only as good as the experiment itself plus the evaluation afterwards. First of all, if you do experiments, control the variables! Eliminate everything you are not directly interested in. If you want to look at spotting, do it on a flat surface and make both opponents hold fire. Because, as I often see, if you measure time until first shot, or kill, you are skewing the spotting process. Next, don't look at averages or medians alone. Look at distributions. And don't eliminate outliers. My text book about statistical data analysis said that, eliminating outliers, although done often, should really only be done if you know what you are doing, e.g. when you know that your outlier is actually some measurement error and not some rare event.

    So, here's what I did:

    I put an M60 TTS and a bog standard T72 (the exact models aren't relevant for the method) on a flat map with paved ground, roughly 2 km apart. I set both vehicles to hold fire. I then measured the time it took for each tank to first get a partial contact and then a full contact.

    Here is the raw data:

    t72 = [84, 17, 78, 4, 174, 65, 77, 321, 289, 444, 31, 3, 290, 2, 40, 120, 40, 159, 57, 69, 15, 54, 80, 95, 19, 58,
           23, 672, 154, 154, 17, 14, 342, 12, 386, 43, 84, 12, 378, 123, 30, 44, 240, 311, 110, 2, 68, 181, 137]

    t72_id = [7, 21, 7,28, 7, 35, 14, 0, 56, 0, 35, 0, 7, 70, 42, 7, 35, 35, 0, 49, 0, 7, 0, 0, 0, 63, 28, 7, 14, 0,
              7, 7, 7, 49, 7, 21, 14, 21, 14, 0, 7, 14, 28, 0, 14, 7, 28, 56, 77]

    m60 = [89, 68, 41, 38, 71, 10, 73, 0, 20, 9, 4, 55, 91, 34, 31, 8, 14, 116, 64, 4, 18, 63, 116, 38, 3, 18, 71, 132,
           39, 73, 43, 73, 116, 210, 207, 36, 180, 27, 88, 48, 102, 3, 52, 77, 176, 22, 18, 80, 24]

    m60_id = [7, 7, 7, 0, 14, 14, 0, 14, 14, 7, 14, 0, 7, 14, 35, 14, 7, 0, 7, 14, 7, 0, 14, 7, 7, 7, 14, 35, 7, 0, 7, 0,
              0, 7, 0, 7, 14, 14, 7, 7, 7, 0, 7, 0, 0, 7, 21, 7, 7]

    Times are in seconds, the entry t72 is time until partial contact for the T72 trying to spot the M60, the one with  "_id" is the difference between partial and full contact. The same for m60. And in order to get the distributions I made histograms with 30s bins for plots 1 and 3 and 7s for plot 2.

    WB7lnFq.png

    lgROC2I.png

    leakiFK.png

    So, what do we see here? Well, first of all, I should have taken at least ten times the data or make make larger bins. I didn't have the patience for the former and doing the latter would mean that we don't see much of a distribution. 😉 Anyway, from the raw data we see: time until partial contact can be any number, time to ID (which is what I call time to go from partial to full contact) is always a multiple of 7.

    The histograms tell us the following: Although it is not possible to get the exact distribution, this is definitely not something symmetrical where average or media are easy to interpret. If you look at the bins with the highest counts, those are at low times. That means, players will usually see that their T72 or M60 are often quick to spot their target. Nothing to complain about or make a forum "rant". But for both (!) tanks it is quite possible that it takes several minutes - more likely for the T72 but also the M60 TTS had an event with over 3.5 minutes. The time until partial contact is consistent (no more, no less) with an exponential decay which you would expect when counting the number of dice rolls necessary to roll a specific number - only that the M60 TTS rolls with a D6, while the T72 rolls a D20, so to speak.

    Now, is spotting "broken" or not? For me, this is really not a meaningful thing to say. Because by "broken" people usually mean "takes too long" without saying what "too long" is and why. With the above distributions, it is possible to never spot the target. Right? Wrong? Broken? This is a game/simulation and as any such thing, at least if you want it to run in reasonable time on a consumer machine, it is simpler than real life and abstracted. A meaningful discussion would be "Is this spotting model adequate? Could CM do better by applying model XYZ, instead?". I'm not sure if the long tails (what some call "outliers") are working as intended (although I find @The_Capt analogy with the barrel quite convincing) or if it is a model that is just designed to get the "center", the common situations, right, accepting that every now and then it produces something odd. But getting the tails of an exponentially decaying distribution right is brutally difficult - in fact, come to think of it, my whole PhD thesis was about modelling the tails of a similar distribution correctly.

     

    It's MATH! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!

    Just joking. As for CMCW ability of spotting is just one part of the game. US tanks can't convert ability of spotting to ability of killing completely. Even if m60s can spot t64s/t72s/t80s faster, it would usually take two or three rounds to kill or just immobilize opponent. However soviet tanks can do one shot one kill thing. It's useless that just seeing enemy tanks if you can't kill them.

  2. 5 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

    I have explained why that is a contrived number. I'm done talking about it.

    Sturm-S vs M60 RISE+ @800 meters. Outliers not excluded.

    • Median
      • M60: 29 seconds
      • Sturm: 17.5 seconds
    • Average
      • M60: 29.8 seconds
      • Sturm: 25.5 seconds

    Since you attach so much meaning to the single largest time, for the Sturm it was 88 seconds.

    That's a 49.4% advantage in median spot time for the Sturm-S. WTF @The_Capt, how do you sleep at night? 😡😡  😡

    Crazy. I thought Soviet's lovely tiny ATV were completely blind. This is truly surprising. 

  3. On 5/14/2023 at 5:56 AM, Vanir Ausf B said:

    Perhaps there should be an option to disable the RNG and make all spotting checks 100% successful, LOS permitting. I would not use it but I suspect there is a vocal minority of users who would.

    No dude don't do that. We already have Wargame Red dragon. Don't need another one. RNG spotting is what makes CM different. Even though it does frustrate players at times.

  4. 15 minutes ago, Halmbarte said:

    If you're playing the Sov and you put your tanks in a situation where they are getting into 1:1 duels with the Americans you're doing something wrong. 

    Bring a platoon or a company of tanks along instead. Or, even better, infiltrate infantry ATGM teams forward and kill them the way. The Sov has very competent infantry luggable ATGMs that will absolutely wreck pre-M1 armor. 

    H

    ATGM team is not necessarily. Only BTR formation have them. It means you have to give up BMP formation. It's more than it's worth. BMP is better suited to running an attack. BTR is just car. My view is that instead of putting effort into sending ATGM teams to destroy American tanks, more effort should be put into reconnaissance and planning. Choose a manoeuvre route that will expose as few of your troops as possible. Approach US forces quickly. Get within 1,000 metres before the Americans launch enough ATGMs and rounds. This is more valuable than ATGM.

  5. I understand OP, as I used to have this problem too. But since I gave up micromanagement I've solved that problem. Also I found the charisma of Soviet. In my personal experience, Soviet tanks were perfectly fine, if not overwhelmingly superior, in tank battles within 800 metres. NATO spotting magic only beats the Soviet at a distance. Once the Soviet tanks got close(within 1000 metres), the m60's pathetic gun and armour could not save them. 

    Focusing on whether a particular tank can see enemy tanks is a form of micromanagement. For the Soviet player, micromanagement means nothing. You just need to get enough tanks moving in the general direction of the enemy position. Mass will solve the problem of blindness for you. 

    And don't forget artillery bombard. Soviet can't live without battery.

  6. On 5/11/2023 at 9:44 PM, Andrew Kulin said:

    Please explain then how an unbuttoned T72 Tank commander can't see anything in front of him in broad daylight.  While buttoned up T34's can.

    Sorry folks, but if I can see farm equipment moving about in fields while I am driving on the highway (you guys can do that too, no?), then surely a tank commander, laying in wait, in an unbuttoned tank, should be able to spot large moving vehicles in open fields on a sunny day?  That is part of the issue I originally raised, and perhaps the most frustrating part.

    Well this is actually the RNG at work. CM's AI sometimes displays astonishing stupidity and incompetence and High Myopia. You can think of it as the AI is wandering off or not looking in that direction. It's normal. Just get used to it. ;)

    Unless you can prove that in 1,000 encounters unbuttoned T72 commander can't see anything but buttoned up T34 can. If it happens something must go wrong.

  7. On 2/19/2023 at 11:55 PM, jackal263 said:

    Sorry for late response...

    I will try to recover my (not AMD) Pc (the one that caused so many problems)... i'm actually playing on a better pc, but with an AMD graphic card... with many problems (not the best experience) ... just to go ahead... but for a new battle i would like to return to my old pc... Considering the high lethality of combat in open spaces (like battle 1 and 2 of the tournament) i think that probably the best type of battle is a city fight, maybe a meeting engagement, with lesser air and tank support, eventually.. What do you think ? I will need at least two weeks to restore my old pc, anyway.  

    For the Cold War, high lethality may be the norm. I used to be uncomfortable with it, but I'm starting to accept it. Let's just say that the commander needs to strike a balance between being merciful and getting the job done. It's cruel but unavoidable.

    Of course, I'm not defending the fact that I let my CPR explode quickly.😅 I'm still learning the Domfluff's way to playing soviet. Still very unskilled at it. Glad we're practicing this with pixels and not live people XD

    As for waiting two weeks, that's fine. I've already made you wait two weeks before so much so that you missed the end of the Round 1. Now it's my turn to wait two weeks for you, fair enough ;)

  8. 23 hours ago, jackal263 said:

    @ IdontknowhowtodoX Hi ! Unfortunately round 1 is over (there is about 1 month to end both battles), and round 2 is already started (about two weeks to close that turn, also)... Howewer I would like to continue our battles (not important if not in the tournament environment)... but there is no way to get the files... at least i can't see them anymore... if you still have them on your pc, try to save them in order to resume that battles when the tournamet is over. Let me know !

    In any case, in the next weeks, we could start a quick battle, if you like the idea... I liked our games!

    Ok, I'll try saving the file, although I don't know if that will work. QB game is good. I really didn't do well in the Round 1. I hope I can do better if I come to another QB. 

  9. On 1/17/2023 at 10:31 PM, jackal263 said:

    We were unfortunate in this battle... Anyway it was fun, to this point we arrived... I also don't like the mirror system for the reason explained before, and also for the lack of surprise about enemy force composition.. I think future tournaments should consider the possibility to play maybe an attck map with US, an attack map with Soviets and a meeting engagement with random side. That would surely be better, unless there is the possibility to select force composition at start.

    Hi dude! New PC has arrived. I can continue our tournament:)

    However I noticed I can't continue the Round 1 game(can't upload files) . Is that because is it because it's already over the tournament time limit?

  10. 4 hours ago, ratdeath said:

    I agree, it's mostly for fun :) Doesn't really tell us the whole truth (much less any real life comparison).

    The battlefield is much more complex than x number of tanks having a duel!

    Indeed. Sample size too small. Battlefield is more complex. T-62 can do better with the help of C2. However for the soviet, close-ranged tank warfare in open terrain was desirable. If you can't win(like Round 4) under such condition, it really does hurt. It could be seen as a test of the commander's will once it happens.

  11. 8 hours ago, ratdeath said:

    Love the podcast :)@Free Whisky@domfluff

    @Simcoe I did a quick test platoon vs company. Smoke from burning tanks are a problem for spotting!!

    Platoon M60A1 (Rise+) (5 tanks) vs Company T-62 (1975) (Opened up) (10 tanks)

    Round1, after 2 minutes, five destroyed M60 and five destroyed T-62.

    Round2, after 2 minutes, four destroyed M60 and seven destroyed T-62.

    Round3, after 2 minutes, five destroyed M60 and six destroyed T-62.

    Round 4, after 2 minutes, three destroyed M60 and eight destroyed T-62.

    How far is the distance between the M60 and the T62?

  12. 20 hours ago, jackal263 said:

    Hope you can fix it... but this battle is a bit unlucky for both... i'm playing on a backup pc, and clearly it was smoother on my primary pc. I hope that in case of a timeout, at least we can see the AAR screen

     

    Very unfortunately, the PC is dead. I have to buy a new one after at least 2 weeks. I'm sorry I can't continue playing right now. I'll start my round as soon as I get a new one. 🥲

  13. On 1/13/2023 at 7:46 AM, jackal263 said:

    Thanks to @MeatEtrand to @Probusfor the support !

    I finally managed to solve the problem... i didn't notice that also the email address was not saved in the login form... so filling with my email and again with password it finally worked and the file was sent... but i also launched Steam as Administrator (and i don't know if this also was relevant for my last succesful attempt)

    @IdontknowhowtodoXFor now i sent back just one turn, tomorrow the second one.. it takes me more time than before, because i watch the turns with the new pc (old really but with a Nvidia graphic card), then i switch to the best pc for giving my orders (here i have the ATI Radeon that is terrible in the 'watch action' 

    Man, it's my turn to have a computer breakdown. If I can get it fixed soon I'll finish my turn right away. If I can't, then I'll be AFK for at least two weeks. 😟

  14. On 1/13/2023 at 7:46 AM, jackal263 said:

    Thanks to @MeatEtrand to @Probusfor the support !

    I finally managed to solve the problem... i didn't notice that also the email address was not saved in the login form... so filling with my email and again with password it finally worked and the file was sent... but i also launched Steam as Administrator (and i don't know if this also was relevant for my last succesful attempt)

    @IdontknowhowtodoXFor now i sent back just one turn, tomorrow the second one.. it takes me more time than before, because i watch the turns with the new pc (old really but with a Nvidia graphic card), then i switch to the best pc for giving my orders (here i have the ATI Radeon that is terrible in the 'watch action' phase)

    I have to say sorry once again since I missed your msg again😅 . I'll have to check my message notification more often. Glad to know you are back. :)

  15. 4 hours ago, jackal263 said:

    Yes, the start was terrific (for both sides, but you lost some valuable infantry in your APCs... and later you recovered greatly, honestly).

    Tomorrow i will try to install Steam (and Cold War) on a bit older pc (but, at least, without an ATI Radeon graphic card)...

    If i fail (for some reason) i will get my previous pc maybe in next weekend... on my latest pc (that is a very good pc) the game is simply unplayable... unfortunately. (PS. I have so many pc because i work in IT sector, and i never dismiss any previous hardware)

    Thanks for your patience (and sorry for my terrible english) 

    Ok I get it. BTW I can totally understand your EN so it's not terrible at all ;)

  16. On 1/6/2023 at 3:11 AM, jackal263 said:

    Hoping that my (gfs26) opponent (@Idontknowhowtodo) in the tournament read this :

    "Hi !
    I recently lost my primary pc... unfortunately it is not the power supply, so it will take some time to get it again.
    I have a second pc, and it should be better (intel i9), but it has an ATI Radeon graphic card that doesn't run properly all the CM series...i tried to run our games, but there are a lot of graphic issues (in particular explosions) that make the game no more attractive.. I will try to restore the previous pc (but i doubt i will get it before mid of next week) and so will put our game in pause.
    Sorry for the problem !

    By the way, great battle so far... a very bloody battle. "

     

    Is there any suggestion in the forum for user having ATI Radeon graphic card ?

    The game is really unplayable (i run it under Windows 10, on a high spec pc, maybe except for the graphic card Radeon RX 550)

     

     

    oh sry man. I Haven't checked this thread recently so I missed your msg. I am sorry about your PC loss. I can wait no problem.

    As for the game, I usually scout for 15 minutes then take move. So this intense opening really shocked me. It's painful to command a crippled troop I have to say. 😑

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