Machor

Peskov is saying the same thing as the WOTR article I linked to on the previous page (Plus we get more of the 'Ukraine is Anti-Russia', which I take is derived from the 'Anti-Christ'):

Latest expert opinion on when Russia will start nuking: "UNDERSTANDING PUTIN’S NUCLEAR DECISION-MAKING" https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/understanding-putins-nuclear-decision-making/ TL;DR: Not yet, but it's on the table. Two parts that I found interesting: "A first key point regarding Putin’s nuclear decision-making is that he does not have a single nuclear button that he could push in splendid isolation. Instead, there are three nuclear briefcases in Russia: one with the president, one with the defense minister, and one with the general staff chief. Most reporting indicates that at least two out of those three suitcases are needed for issuing an order to launch nuclear weapons. That means that, in contrast to the United States, two physical suitcases that are controlled by two different people are required to use nuclear weapons. One of those two would have to be the president, as according to Russian declaratory policy regarding the decision to use nuclear weapons . The general staff would also need to accept the order as valid before it went out into the military unit controlling the nuclear weapons." "Russian deterrence and escalation management concepts entail that using non-nuclear deterrent forces could serve as a warning to the adversary of a move toward the nuclear threshold. Increased use of dual-capable systems is one indicator to look for in this regard. Russia has now used its novel dual-capable air-launched ballistic missile, the Kinzhal, and pundits are debating whether this should be read as such a signal or not."

"'I'm alive': Former Canadian Forces sniper debunks rumours of his death in Ukraine "I'm pretty much the last person to know about my death" — former CAF sniper 'Wali'" https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wali-alive-despite-russian-disinformation-1.6393191 ""I'm a good sniper," said Wali. "Nothing less, nothing more ... I didn't kill any Russians yet. I help doing so because the sniper is doing a lot of observation, reporting."" "Ukraine's President Volodymr Zelensky put out a worldwide call for volunteers to join his country's defence — but foreign fighters who don't sign three-year contracts with Ukraine's military aren't protected by international law in the event of capture. Russia has said that it will treat foreign fighters as mercenaries."

Russian Tunguskas have thermals; can't they just engage drones optically?

Reposting this Russian Kool-Aid TV footage for context - can be understood without knowing Russian. This is what happens if you switch from "war is the continuation of policy through other means" to 'war is sexy':

I am interpreting your idea as a 21st century digitized version of the Chinese short attack in the Korean War. Am I way off?

Aaron Stein told what's shooting down the TB2s - are you here? - It's the Su-35:

Belarus seems to be a 'go' - they've got invasion marking:

Amen.

Ditto with Bagration in the East.

On a lighter note... Can we have tankriders in CMBS? Oh wait!

Re: Corruption I had always thought the best strategy for Russia in Ukraine post-Maidan was to wait it out, just as they successfully did after the Orange Revolution. Turns out this was not viable due to organized crime figures losing power. One of the many bad things about kleptocracies is that they have dynamics that defy Realist strategy:

I agree that the Kremlin (we keep saying 'Putin' as shorthand, but let's remember he isn't running the show all alone) does not want an escalation. But at the same time, they need to come up with answers for a public that was being served the Kool-Aid below (in Russian, but I think anyone can get the point). Therefore, 'escalate to deescalate' is definitely on the table.

This expert made calculations for how many 'rounds' of artillery ammo Russian trucks can carry, a 'round' including both the shell and the accompanying charges. He calculated a six ton Ural can carry 40-50 152mm rounds, or some 80 122mm. That may help visualize the battlefield impact of a burnt-out truck wreck, assuming it was carrying ammo to your CM game. Also sobering to see that going from 122 to 152 has a 2x impact on the logistic tail.

Two questions: 1. Wikipedia states that the Ka-52 has both air-to-ground and air-to-air radar, the former in the nose, the latter in the mast. If true, would this make the Ka-52 an exception to your statement? 2. Again, if the above information is correct, is the Ka-52 unique in this regard? Does the Longbow radar not have an air-to-air mode? (I had no luck searching on Google.)

Sadly, true. What struck me specifically with 'ukrop' is that when I first heard the term being used in 2014, it was limited to Ukrainian security forces, as a counterpart to their use of 'separ' for separatists. Extending the use of 'ukrop' to Ukrainian civilians: 1. Doesn't follow the Kremlin's ideology of this war being something like a civil war. 2. Acknowledges that they are fighting a war of aggression. If the soldiers fighting the war are openly expressing their ideology in these terms, this can go to very dark places...

We may be onto something here.

When I first watched this video of Russian soldiers enjoying themselves in a Ukrainian home today I genuinely wondered whether it might be Ukrainian propaganda, but both your post and the details in the WSJ article I linked to yesterday sadly confirm that this is, indeed, the truth. Beyond being an issue of military discipline, I am starting to think Russia has a zoomer problem (And I am aghast at their use of the derogatory 'ukrop' to refer to Ukrainian civilians):

There has been word out there since its use in Syria that Russian radars mistake it for a flock of birds. I do know that marine life is an issue for sonars; no idea about radars. The losses to aircraft, however, have me thinking about all the Russian Ka-52 losses, since the original Ka-50 was supposedly developed by the Soviets as a 'helicopter-killer.'

Interestingly, Aaron Stein leaked intel that most TB2 losses have been to Russian aircraft, not ADS:

This is an interesting, and potentially escalatory situation (I am unfortunately out of likes today). Turkey's enforcement of keeping the straits closed would be an unprecedented event: They have only been closed in the past during WW2, but then the German and Italian navies never attempted to enter the Black Sea through the straits. As the ships appear to be carrying vehicles, an airlift from Syria makes little sense: The same airlift would have been possible from Vladivostok, and much more sensible to send them by rail. I am thinking about two scenarios: 1- The vehicles are reloaded onto civilian ships in Syria. It is not clear to me if Turkey would then still be able to block passage through the straits. 2- This could give Russia its infamous 'escalate to deescalate' card. The ships could steam towards the Dardanelles, with Russia stating that Turkey has to let them through since there has been no declaration of war, that hitting the ships is a casus belli, and that Russia would have the right to retaliate with tactical nukes. This could then force NATO to the negotiating table to pressure Ukraine to cede territories, or at least agree to a ceasefire leading to a frozen war.

Kalın has lumped 'disarmament' with fluff (called "face-saving elements" in the article). If he's not being outright stupid in doing so, my take is 'disarmament' refers to the drivel Russian news outlets started spewing about Ukraine developing WMDs before the invasion, once things started going south for Russia.

"Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call" https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754 TL;DR: He's now ready to settle for Ukraine ceding Crimea and Donbas.

Jumping on Haiduk's post, it is worth remembering we are witnessing the clash of TWO ex-Soviet armies: Senior Ukrainian officers received the same training as their Russian counterparts. This means they will prioritize two things: 1- Fires 2- Urban defense

Turkish troops in Idlib fired some dozen Stingers at RuAF aircraft in February 2020, only to get bombed by the Russians from medium altitude.