Kinophile

Im dying to see snowmobile mounted SOF raiding RUS DIV HQs...

Morale is high.

Man, in CMBS that UKR would be a goner. Ive found going H2H with RUS IFVs is a fools game, and a free kill to Ivan. Guess not here, lucky for them. Incidentally, @Haiduk, @Grigb or @akd is there much use of captured BTR-82As by the UA? Surely they must have enough for a company at this point? Oryx has about 100 as captured. Is there any UA opinions on it? I've always felt that just a bit better thermals and optics would make it a serious danger on the field...

And as with all UKR ops, let's watch for the successive attack from a different direction....

That's the issue with a strong static defense - you put so much effort into it (men, material, time) that by definition you don't have a strong active defense. There's a cost somewhere, and turtling is always a self-defeating strategy in the medium/long term. Your mech coy that should be an active mobile reserve is instead entrenched and getting arty'd into human jigsaw puzzles. So come the inevitable breakthrough somewhere, you just don't have the force available to deal with it, your line is now a redoubt and the hostile are kicking over your divisional kitchens. Interestingly, this situation is a close mirror opposite of the first phase of Kharkiv, where RUS had everything thrown forward and no depth (and no strong mobile reserve). In Kherson they had a certain amount of depth but reduced theatre flexibility. I suspect they still have a strong mobile reserve it its probably pretty beat up.

Tbh, I found that Rumint that makes its way here has about a 75% chance of being correct.

Misplaced from the stock that never existed, fulfilled by the shell company with no employees (but 17 directors), parking lot for a factory and an empty head office, after it won a competition against six identical other companies (who all share the same address) and judged by the brother of one of the Directors who is a clerk at the MoD.

@Cederic @chuckdyke what on earth... Are the two of you six years old, or something? Handbags at dawn, ladies. Sheesh.

Exactly. As Furiousa says in Mad Max, when Max wants to wait and surrender to Immortan Joe: "You're relying on the gratitude of a very bad man. "

Nope, it's the (now classic) UA left-right. Hit one place, get it into danger and force RUS commitment, then hit from a different direction. They do this constantly at a tactical and operational level. Im waiting to see what they do at a strategic level.. Personally, in tactical wargaming, strategy games and board games, I always try for a more extreme, right-angle plan - hit frontal then hit 90 degs from the main attacks axis. Rarely fails. Very hard to defend.

What you describe ref Wehrmacht seems to exactly how UKR extricated units near popasna and later south of Lysychanks. They lost equipment Esp in latter, but the retreating units remained reasonably coherent and certainly above platoon size (Co. and Batt. size I believe) even under heavy interdiction.

Hold yer horses mate. Let's wait for some better data...

As I always say on set - even a bad plan is better than no plan at all. But our intention is always to improve on the bad plan - not double down and pound it deep into the anal sphincter of Worse.

Hah that was exactly my thought when I heard a "counter attack succeeded" in reaching the kessel. Yup, let them in and then close the door behind them. Join the sausage party lads.

Yup, the recapture of Kherson is an absolute strategic necessity for 2022.Ujr cannot come out of the winter without Kherson (and de facto the dniper) in hand.

https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1575776705347997696?t=79c466Edtp54jXJMDzvLbg&s=19

It implies that the Crimea is the real red line for Putin. Donetsk is only important as a flank guard for the land bridge. Luhansk is losable. Kherson is vital in this thinking as it directly threatens the land connection to Sebastapol, and is why he has filled it with good units and wont let them flee. His political persona and ego are inextricably tied to Crimea, possibly as it was his greatest geopolitical and domestic victory. I noted this many moons and hundreds of pages ago, that Crimea has an emotional hook for Putin and many Russians. If there's any true red line for them then its UA ground units crossing the Kherson/Crimean border. That doesnt mean UA can't kick the unholy crap out of Russian infrastructure on the peninsula, of course. But while Putler is alive I would be highly leery of deliberate ground assault by Ukrainian Army units south onto Crimea. SOF raids dont count.

As @Battlefront.com has noted several times, the UKR trolling of RUS is just phenomenal. If you've been watching Russia for anything longer than a few weeks you've probably noticed that the Kremlin will often attempt to deny clean media coverage of a western event/announcement with some pointless RUS violence or a ridiculous (and hence attention grabbing) statement/threat. It's a simple and effective trick, playing off the systemic weakness of free western media to follow the loudest and newest noise by generating competing noise to drown out attempts at true information. So it's very satisfying see Zelensky et al repeating the tactic back at Putler, corroding his attempted narrative in Western media. Speaking of paying back the same tactic, UKR should offer a nice corridor (avoiding the word "humanitarian") for the Ivans to flee Lyman. Let the convoys move out and then unmercifully shell the living **** out of it, for hours and hours on end with every goddamn weapon at their disposal. Just like those b@astards have done innumerable times since 2014. Really make a point of it - "Surrender and live or Flee and die". No laws against it.

i.e., the SMO as televised.

Ahah official Russian doctrine raises its head once more.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy50cmFuc2lzdG9yLmZtL2Zyb20tdGhlLWNyb3dzLW5lc3Q/episode/YmY2MjQ5YTctYWVkNi00MjVlLTgyMzMtOTQxOGMzODlkMzZj?ep=14 "From The Crows Nest" podcast, an EW centric show. For the civvies among us, it's very useful. Now, Some episodes can be insanely mil-nerdy, with serving officers regurgitating an unholy mix of densely packed acronyms and obsure doctrinal references. If this is how bad mil-speak can get, well my oh my am I glad I never did more than that one evening in the FCA. But every guest knows their stuff and just as importantly so does the host. There's some notable bits in this episode, esp re Gen. Ben Hodges trying to freely move M1s around Europe on land (spoiler, he couldn't) and those knock-on implications for Ukraine NATO-ising its tank fleet VS. the existing national physical infrastructure to actually get them from A-> B. Have a listen.

That's... That's way too hard, I'm sorry. You ask too much!

Yah and Orban will be a real Putler-licking a$$hat.

Ohhh noooes the attack of the unguided bombs! Seriously, wtf. The GPW has really rotted its way into any critical thinking.

Thank you!