Hister
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Posts posted by Hister
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There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots.
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante.
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
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20 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I will say that Russia is surprising me to some degree. As Grigb said, any normal nation would have long since taken a major change of approach to the war, but Russia continues on without much change other than scaling down the scope of offensive activities. Russia has also continued to come up with new and even more creative ways to get replacement manpower (ISW June 10th report outlined a scheme that tricked yet other bunch of Russians). Yet it is pretty clear that each passing day means Russia's capacity to fight in Ukraine is worsening. Even "victories" in the Donbas won't change that dynamic.
And this gets us into the tricky bit about predicting the WHEN. The elements necessary for a Russian military collapse have been in place for quite a while. The fundamentals have not changed for the better from Russia's perspective, but in fact have gotten decidedly worse. Determining the exact point at which "this much is too much" for the forces at the front is impossible until after it happens. In other words, we do not have an accurate count of how many pieces of straw it takes to break this particular camel's back, therefore we can count all the pieces falling on its back and still not know when its back will break.
So, to some extent I am not as confident of Russian collapse by the end of June as I was last month. Russia has managed to bring more forces into the fight (one-time tricks) and Ukraine has held back on its reserves more than I expected. As I stated above, this doesn't change where this is all headed, it only changes the timeline.
This is why people don't like to make predictions about WHEN something might happen. For the most part I've been avoiding doing it as well. The "by the end of June" (or however I phrased it) was perhaps a little optimistic. I'll revise that and say "the soonest it is likely to happen is the end of June".
I don't know that this war can continue into the Fall or Winter. Both sides are exhausted, but Russia is worse off than Ukraine from what I can see. Now and into the near future. Morale is one of the key factors in this war and Ukraine still has plenty of it and Russia does not.
Steve
Thank you very much, as always. Loving this thread when finding the time to read it.
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Steve, do you still think Russian army will collapse this month? In late May or sometime around then you wrote for the recorod that it will. Still hold this belief?
What do others think, collapse in June or when?
When it is reasonable to expect Ukrainians will be able to push Russians out of the newly occupied parts? Until the end of summer as was many times suggested or is that too optimistic?
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Thank you Steve for the detailed answer! Much appreciated. Am in no position to follow the thread due to current work load so knowing what you guys think will most probably happen there is a boon.
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Been away from the forum a while now. So the North collapsed as Steve and some others predicted. What is the situation in the East and South? Will it collapse too or are Russian logistics on par now there?
Reading Russian attack is imminent in the East - is that true or is this BS like imminent attack on Kiev was that media was promoting until it wasn't?
Are Ukrainians waiting for the Russian attack and will they counterattack then?
What are Steve's (and others) predictions for the war now?
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@Kinophileand others, thank you for taking the time bringing me up to speed on where things stand.
The speed this thread grows daily is scarry.
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Guys, I ask for your help. I managed to follow this thread daily but due to extra work and family obligation fell out of the thread wheel. I stopped reading on page 315 (Monday evening). Can you guys pretty please put me back up to speed and tell me the most important developments since then? I can't reserve enough time to get through all the posts since without being helplessly behind and news on TV are lacking as always.
So there were indications Ukraine started pushing Russians back in the Kiev theater. How strong was the Ukraine push?
Are there any more significant signs that Russian army is collapsing/in serious trouble?
Anything majorly new?
Broad info is good enough.
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Quote
“Traces of explosives and clues suggesting that this was not a reconnaissance aircraft were found. We found parts of an air bomb,” Croatian Defense Minister Mario Banozic said at the crash site."
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/official-drone-crashed-croatia-carried-bomb-83421615
Does this change anything in regards to which side is the most likely owner of the Tu-141?
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1 hour ago, TheVulture said:
Here's my analysis:
Wikipedia lists the following details
Taking that speed and those timings, that's about 35km through Romanian airspace, 470km through Hungarian and 80km through Croatia, ending at Zagreb. The Tu-141 has a range of around 1000km, although that looks rounded off and is also going to depend on weather conditions etc.
Taking all that at face value, 1000km in a straight line doesn't put it anywhere inside Ukraine that Russia could have launched it. Vinnytsia is about as far into Ukraine. Since it is essentially a cruise-missile it doesn't have to travel in a straight line though, but obviously that gives it the furthest range. Transnistria might just about be a possibility if you definitely want it to be a Russian launch, but it looks far more likely that it was Ukrainian.
Waw, thank you so much for this calculation!!
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32 minutes ago, Taranis said:
Personnaly, I think it is a russian or LNR/DNR action. It could be captured UAVs and used for intels and testing the NATO defenses. Or also a threat to eastern Europe countries. A way to say, "we can hit you when we want". Isn't false flag attacks a speciality of the russians ? It also could be a way for russians to say "you see ukrainians are poor allies", it's ridiculous but everything Russia do since the beginning is ridiculous (eg laboratories, warcrimes, rush, bad logistic etc).
I see. Yeah, crazy stunts Russian side is doing, so lame all the way. So you don't think it could in any way be lunched by Ukrainian side? You discount the option it manfunctioned?
26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:There is an opinion that was confused objectives for this UAV. It had to fly in Yarun village area in Zhytomyr oblast, but probably in its navigation system were mistakingly eneterd coordinates of Jarun town in Croatia. UAV flew through two countries, WAS NOT SPOTTED BY NATO AIR DEFENSE (or spotted, but without reaction) and fell after the fuel was wasted. Which Tu-141 could belng is an open question. There is no good photos of wreck with markings. Reportedly locals say there was somesing like red stars painting fragments, but there is no photos.
Russia also is operator of Tu-141, but I don't know they really in service (this UAV is good SAM training target, imitating the cruise missile) or in reserve.
Well, the radars of all nato countries that it flew over spotted it but there was a problem because nato planes didn't scramble meaning it was either not reported by said countries to nato higherups or it was and nato didn't reapond or something down that line.
20 minutes ago, akd said:Whoever fired it, I’m sure it was intended as an AD decoy / lure.
What is AD decoy?
Thank you all for taking the time.
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Glad you guys liked the Julia Ioffe interview.
Will ask again about the TU-142 Strizh incident. What is your take on it, was it more likely operated by Russia or by Ukraine and why you think so? Thanx.
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1 minute ago, DesertFox said:
Ha, they must have been playing Spintires/Mudrunner games where one can often get out of such muddy predicament and thought it will be all swell in the end.
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9 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
I did notice your post (even liked it
) and watched it today, good video imo. Thanks
Ah, my apologies then for double post!
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Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.
I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.
Also, what is the consensus of you guys - was the soviet era unmanned survaillance plane that crashed in Zagreb, Croatia, owned by Russia or Ukraine?
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Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next:
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2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:
Sorry I thought you were replaying all of the campaign.
Yes, I am replaying all of the campaign but am in the mission Hansel and Gretel now and asking for tips for that specific scenario - I remember my but getting kicked on that mission the last time I played it.
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4 hours ago, Warts 'n' all said:
Good luck with the mission. It is tough, but winnable.
The 19th century Humperdinck was German and composed an opera entitled "Hansel and Gretel" in 1893.
The second one was "Anglo-Saxon" born into a military family in India. His real name was Arnold George Dorsey, it was an old mate who suggested the Humperdinck name change in the 1960's.
I already won it back in the day but am replaying it. I got stuck back then with one later scenario.
Is there a remade campaign by Paper Tiger somewhere? Was it published?
Thank you for the explanation of where the scenario name originates from.
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54 minutes ago, Warts 'n' all said:
There were two of them, both best avoided. A 19th century composer, and a dreary 1960's singer.
With regards to the mission. Beware of Nebelwerfers. Avoid the temptation to rush your troops into "Gretel". And try to get troops into hard cover around "Hansel" rather than relying on the foxholes for protection.
Ah, I see - I am not of Anglosaxon stock so I don't know these two best to be avoided individuals.
OK, will see what that hardcover might be in Hansel (buildings?) and avoid Gretel.
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1 hour ago, Warts 'n' all said:
Never listen to Engelbert Humperdinck.
Who might that fellow be? A forum user?
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Anyone has any Hanzel and Gretel scenario tips?
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1 hour ago, StieliAlpha said:
Correction: It is Stalk I, not II.
While searching for it, I found this on EBay:
https://www.ebay.ch/itm/253231078034
Looks like all components for “Pattons Best” and “Raid on St Nazaire” on a DVD. Probably good to get a in depth impression of the games.
Can't answer your question but I can let you know a remake of Pattons Best is in the works right now. Will be published at Compass Games most likely.
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Yeah, my first tabletop wargame per see was Risk too but I was 7 years old when I first got in contact with the computer games so that platform was where I got my first taste of the blood. Only returned to boardgaming after a friend lurred me into them a few years ago. Moving board pieces around activates other brain sectors then by playing pc games, I can really feel the change.
Loving both mediums with plenty of unplayed or barely played Steam and other games in the library too.
Got the Second Front already on my radar. Spoke with the developer - it is gonna be an arcady CM so not that sure I wanna have it but waiting for reviews to make up my mind.
Thank you for chimming in.
Off to sinking some more Japanese boats I go now - dog is tired from the forest stroll and games, wife went to the beach and the house is all mine now... Silent Victory here I come!
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1 minute ago, StieliAlpha said:
I did not read your thread since a while now. How is it going with your board games?
I started about 45 years ago with AH‘s Battle of the Bulge. Then came Midway. Thereafter perhaps 150 others. Back in the 90‘s, I sold a few and I sort of lost track.
I have at the moment Shogun (aka Ikusa) Empire of the Sun, Sekigahara, Silent Victory, D-Day at Peleliu, Enemy Coast Ahead: The Doolittle Raid, Julius Caesar, Pacific Victory: Pacific theater of WW2 and Napoleon: The Waterloo Campaign. The last 3 I made myself from the Columbia Games spare parts and user published map modifications which I printed on neoprene mats and modified player cards which in the end netted me bigger maps 'cos the originals were too small for ease of play and I saved a few bucks too doing so.
Have other board games but do not fit into the wargames cayhegory. Have a bunch of GMT games preordered and a big whish list of games I wanna have.
Haven't ordered any tactical boardgames as of yet since CM games scratch that itch already.
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What a great thread this has become. Thank you for sharing your points of view/experiences, guys!
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
I have been all giddy since Kherson and now the collapse at Izyum.
What is the size of the Ukrainian units participating in the breakthrough?