Grigb

Reminder about what kind of information RU troops are given on an daily basis.

A brief update on the Kremina-Svatove Direction. On RU channels, I see virtually nothing. The developers of the UKR DeepState Map stated that no changes in situation except Ru fail at Serebryanka woodland (a large forest south-west of Kreminna), which is a good thing. Just in case full post(direct quote from their ENG channel) So far, we may conclude that RU attempted something that has so far resulted in nothing. But definitely the timing was a way off due to apparent unpreparedness of RU propagandists.

Nice analysis! However, I'd want to make the following change to the scenario. The Soviet Air Force was known to use a Jump airfield near the front lines. It is little more than a runaway strip (perhaps a highway) with the basic necessities for maintenance and supply (maybe simply a refueler and starter). As a result, the plane takes off from the main base and heads to Jump airfield. He remains there till the time comes. After the mission to prevent any retaliation, the aircraft just returns to the main base. I believe the UKR Air Force is doing the same.

It limped back to base. At first RU claimed it was hit by friendly drop tank but later admitted it was work of enemy AA.

Yesterday these photos were circulating among UKR channels as joke. Today it is news

They say bla-bla-bla UKR are lying we are not destroyed, just lost few of our comrades bla-bla-bla. I like a quote from one RU soldier:"I have seen video of UKR soldier standing over Osetin body, I have not seen video of Osetin soldier standing over Ukrainian body"

So far there is very little information - RU claims the 76th VDV is pushing forward in that area. The Kupyansk region was where the Russians were gathering forces for a surprise operation to recover Kupyansk and compel the UKR command to frantically halt anything in the other directions and shift forces here. It was a Gerasimov Ace card to play when the UKR commit its primary forces in the other direction. I assumed that following the RDK raids, some troops were drawn to RU territory and the plan was abandoned. But perhaps I was mistaken and RU did begin it today. [UPDATE] The interesting question is that the main UKR forces have not been yet committed. So, why play the Ace card now? What do we not know?

I think he is lying to sweeten up the video. UKR guys are at the entrance. There is no space for weapon boxes that are covered from elements and also supposed to be accessible by multiple people at once. Even if RU guys had weapons boxes, they were in the main sleeping bunker from where other guys were coming from.

The fourth guy's clothes are a bit too good for a poor rookie in my opinion. I would say he is a civilian paramilitary logistic guy that happened to be in the trench. But no doubt they are sort of smobiks (bit too old) somewhere in the rear.

Stick and carrot policy - act nicely and you will be officially recognized and elevated to the status of RU elite close to Putin. Or else.

Yes, it is exactly what I am talking about.

My opinion is that the first three guys did not try to surrender. The first guy immidiatly starts shouting like a warning cyka, blyat and tries to shout something specific to warn comrades. He is clearly shocked but very aggressive at this point and tries to hide inside the observation post while shouting. His hands were seen as if extended forwards becasue he was already hit and extended them to protect body from bullets and also, as he was falling, to instinctively to protect body from fall. He was trying to swear till the end. The other two guys were rushing to the first guy to ask what happened. They just did not expect UKR guys inside. The first guy (the second by kill count) clearly had something in right hand similar to how RU soldier tend to carry AKs in close quarters when not in danger.

RU/Soviet army tend to crete a large number of SF units. And everyone wants to see some action. As a result, they are frequently do elite light infantry jobs (like the 75th Rangers). They infiltrate and attack critical defensive positions from behind.

This is Alex Kots, infamous RU reporter-propagandist. Here he is talking with Putin. This post is RU propaganda narrative they all are spewing now. It is a unit of ammo allocated to a person or vehicle. But often (like in this case) it is just synonym for ammo.

Yes, agree. Just added some useful bits to better understand their Bakhmut dynamics.

The use of RU glided bombs, I believe, was crucial for Bakhmut. Previously, Wagnerites were helpless against the UKR's urban strongholds. However, as soon as VKS Ru Nats began gloating about the bombs, I noticed clear progress of Wagnerites in urban areas.

A reminder of how RU Nats perceive the English-speaking world. This is not some unknown marginalized freak, but Lobaev, the only maker of long-range sniper rifles in Russia. He's like the Elon Musk of RU precision shooting industry. Absolutely rational and sane people.

They - do not poke RU, they are sane and intelligent people. RU - Official statement of the Russian Defense Ministry - The US plans to deliver mosquitoes using UAVs to infect enemy [RU] troops

Nesmian (Civilian Girkin) confirms what I wrote regarding RU military "reporters".

The best part is that Yuri Podolyaka, aka YuraSumy, is well-known among RU Nats as a renowned liar who will tell anything for money. He is currently paid by the Russian government to distribute RU propaganda. Some quotes from RU Nats: Grubnik, Murz's RU Nat boss (Murz has an official military boss, but this one is unofficial and more significant). Murz himself

I somewhat disagree that this is about what works or does not work. According to my observations, RU depleted local resources, paused, and then began to bring in portions of main reserves, pushing helis and other weapon systems (i.e. TOS) forward. Naturally, in response to the RU move, UKR stopped in several places to analyze the altered situation, consolidate and redeploy forces. But they are also pushing in other directions (Pyatikhatka). As a result, the pause is due to a major change in the RU disposition that UKR need to reassess and react. Unfortunately, the RU change is not what we are waiting for yet. Exactly. From the start of the offensive, I am getting waaay less useful info from RU sources. They are all now like - Our glorious guys are holding against UKR human waves! UKR dead bodies are piling up but your guy report everything is fine! Also, that's why we must be extra careful with Western media , pundits and OSINT guys now because they are getting info for the same sources which is mostly BS now. Look at Girkin now: There are two issues here. Girkin, unlike in the past, unequivocally supports RU MOD claims about losses. He also lies about the significance of Pyatikhatky (it is a road to Vasilevka that opens up a route to the flank and creates the Vasilevka-Kamianke pocket). He now writes as if he is the unofficial RU MOD spokesperson. Have Western media and various pundits realized it yet? I doubt.

FighterBomber's silence is a good thing (he would undoubtedly deny it otherwise). AFAIK, all RU propagandists (even unofficial ones) received a serious message to stop talking about RU failures. Take a look at Girkin. After the start of the offensive, he speaks as if he is a regular RU TG propagandist. And the quality of information from everyone else declined dramatically. Rumor is RU MOD is aware that they are in a difficult situation and will most likely have to retreat. To avoid shocking the RU public, they opted to closely control the narrative from the outset of the offense. That is why the meeting with Putin took place - if you are a faithful Z nazi, you cannot refuse request from the God Emperor and remain close to your sources on the front lines. You will have to travel to RU and be completely under the care of really kind people. So, I am leaning toward accepting that RU took some (unknow) helicopter losses recently. AFU is not completely toothless.

According to UKR, due to artillery losses, the Russians have begun substituting them with helicopters. As a result, helis are being shot down as they come closer to the frontline (there are claims that not two, but four helis have been shot down).

Details of Pyatikhatka assault: Another comment

I did not manage to finish current Mashovets posts. So, for now I would like to post summary for 17-18 of June