BlackMoria
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Posts posted by BlackMoria
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1 minute ago, sburke said:
the point was more that they'd fail just like the rest of their crap
I would wager it is worst than that. I imagine that Russia prioritizes where it sinks it money. At a minimum, try to keep maintained and operating the weapon systems you are likely to use the most and prioritize downwards. Given the habit of Russian soldiers always finding themselves on the wrong side of their neighbour's borders, I would imagine their army and air force would get priority. Not sure if their navy is above or below that, because that is the typical forward facing stuff you strut around to try to impress or intimate your potential enemies. The nuclear forces are probably dead last in priority as MAD as worked for decades and no sane person even entertains playing that card. You try to keep up with the Jones with the stuff you expect to use and scrimp on the stuff you don't expect to use at all.
Given how poorly maintained their ground forces are, I think their nuclear forces are probably much worse off for maintenance. I think if push came to shove and it came down to the unthinkable, I think most of the strategic nukes will not make it out of the silos. But that said, it only take a few to work....
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I don't think so. If I recall my limited military history of Zhukov, all problems were nails to him and his hammer was to throw endless russian bodies at the problem until it was solved. He was no Rommel or Guderian. If this new Russian commander is cut from the same cloth, I don't expect any brilliant maneuvers from him. He is old school Soviet military academy for one, and for two, the mud season will constrain any maneuvers. I expect he will throw bodies at the problem in the hope that he can deliver the much need win that Putin wants for the 9 May parade.
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I think every new school textbook addressing the Dunning-Kruger Effect needs to have a picture of Putin as the exemplar of that effect and to show how Dunning-Kruger can have real tangible consequences when world leaders become representation of that effect.
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Maxar Satellite images are incredible. They are scattered throughout this tread if you want to see what I am talking about. They can even pick up bodies in the streets. One of the images was used to debunk the russian claim that the bodies in the streets of Bucha were done by Ukrainian soldiers or British Intelligence after the russians left Bucha. The image debunked that as the bodies were already there before Russian forces left.
Maxar is a private satellite imaging company. Imagine the even greater fidelity of military spy satellites. The russians can't pull off any strategic or operational surprises with all the electronic eyes on them, to answer a question you asked earlier, Huba.
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"Come on guys, it’s a special military operation, not a war! Let alone ww3…"
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5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:
No I don't really agree. Kissinger had warned us about the life and death issue for Russia on Ukraine and that neutrality was the way to go. Politicians of this era are uneducated and have become progressively clueless and this situation is beyond what they can handle. We are not going to fight a world war because of miscalculated politics, so we should stop yelling for it like a cheerleader every time a fake or unconfirmed bit of info is surfaced.
You are wrong. The two world wars and other conflicts fought in the last 100 years were because of 'miscalculated politics'. Humanity has a terrible batting average in that regard. World War 3 will start the same way, miscalculated politics. And it all started with the first 'miscalculation' by Putin.
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1 minute ago, panzermartin said:
Yes and I'm sorry that had to happen...
The point is, it didn't 'had to happen' Russia chose this path and here we are....
A line from Babylon 5, a cracking good series.
"The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to protest..."
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Let the NATO response to this be the sinking of the Black Sea fleet in international waters of the Black Sea, if it was up to me to make the call on what an 'appropriate' response to WMD use should be.
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The answer should be 'Yes'. Or the neverending threats from Russia with WMD will begin.
"Stop supplying Ukraine or else.!"
"Remove all sanctions or else!" On and on.
If it is going to be WW3, get on with it then. I have had %$^&* enough of threats.
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Mechanical Fuze timers are cranky, at least when I was in the artillery 30 years ago. They mechanically have to be set and the observer observes the height of burst and make fuze timer adjustments. Not a fast process, and they have a higher rate of failure than normal PD (point detonating) fuzes.
Variable Time fuzes (VT) are better but the radio transmitters can be jammed or triggered by emitter before hitting the target. Also the ground surface is a factor. Radio waves from the VT fuze can penetrate mud before getting a sufficient signal return to set off the round. And it is major mud season in Ukraine. All of the above plus cost and availability probably play into why there is not many videos of them being used.
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I, long ago, while being a peace keeper in Bosnia in '93 where I had front row seats to ethnic cleansing and had my mind and soul seared during the six months of hell myself and other Canadian peace keepers went through, came to a realization - we are fundamentally savages. Intellectually as a species, we evolved to put a man on the moon and do all sorts of uplifting things. But the savage in each and everyone of us is still there and we had far too many wars where the savage in each of us is stirred and we do terrible things to to other human beings - The holocaust, Stalin's atrocities to his own people and other ethnic groups, Rwanda, Bosnia, Cambodia, Sudan, Yemen, Ethopia.... etc. All that in the last hundred years - never mind that this savagery had gone on for thousands of years.
We have no better angels. We are not enlightened people, evolving out of our savage tribal roots. We are savages with the trappings of a technological society. We have guns, missiles and tanks instead of spears, clubs and bows.
Just pointing out what sometimes is getting missed. What is happening in Ukraine is normal human interaction of the worst type. If we grew out of our savage origins, humanity would have given up war and atrocities as a form of social interaction long ago.
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On 4/2/2022 at 11:29 PM, Battlefront.com said:7 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:
If Russia really has lost now, as Steve has suggested, isn't there a danger Putin switches to chemical and nuclear weapons?
I deem that unlikely. The outrage on the atrocities being revealed is causing a upswell of support in Western countries to do something... anything over and above what is being done now. That is a very upset electorate that politicians need to manage expectations. If Putin plays the chemical or nuclear card, that ground swell of outrage may push NATO governments into a position they need to get militarily involved. And if that happens, NATO may have to go 'all in'. If you are going to dance with the devil, you need to come prepared to win. Putin, if he is aware of what his happening outside his borders knows that. It is over at the point if he goes down that route. NATO will probably be forced to go 'all in' in Ukraine. That is game over for Russia's little adventurism in Ukraine.
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Well, having an international arrest warrant for war crimes will put a damper on Putin's travel plans. Having an interpol arrest squad waiting to arrest him when he arrive for the G20 summit or Olympics or where ever is probably his future.
Would love to see his private plane forced down over some country and some very serious heavy armed unsympathetic international law enforcement waiting to take him into custody would make my day.
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It will be interesting what the developing field of optical / adaptive camouflage brings to the party. May not be effective against thermal systems but visual systems which is the dominate domain of most drone sensor systems and a fair amount of middle / low tech combat sighting systems. Think the 'Predator' movie adaptive camouflage of the Predator. That is in development and I recall seeing a video of a demonstration of a infantry man system that appeared to be quite effective. Mind you, testing lab to the actual battlefield is the challenge. And upscaling it for vehicles would likewise be quite the challenge. I don't know how any adaptive/optical system would still work once said vehicle drove through a field of mud and is covered with it. Still, stealth tech for everyone is the potential. But I am not sure it will survive the wear and tear of the battlefield to be force multiplier or to cloak your army. Still, development is ongoing for these systems.
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It is a fallacy to decry the demise of the tank based on this conflict. The lack of competence, well trained tank crews, the use of tactics from the days of Wellington vs Napolean, lack of sound maintenance, lack of logistics...... damn, I can go.
An analysis of the tank's future is needed to be done from a position where such variables like above are equal across the board in 'the best data points' consideration. If with the best tactics, logistics, maintenance, equipment designs, etc. that the tank is found wanting, then have the discussion of the future of the tank. This conflict isn't rock, paper, scissors where the tank is rock. This conflict is rock, paper, scissors, where rock is a pile of manure, the scissors are dull and the paper is arse wipe when considering the Russian performance to date.
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Ah, we may yet have see the development of the Bolo. Unleash the Dynachrome brigade ! <Channeling Keith Laumer>
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Just now, Ts4EVER said:
If they end up using chemical weapons they will probably gas their own troops because they wouldn't manage to inform everyone in time.
The Russian troops performance is so abysmal, I don't think they have the skills, discipline and moral to even consider fighting in an NBC environment. If Putin plays the chemical card, a whole lot of his troops are going to die as well...
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5 minutes ago, Combatintman said:
Its a science, if you forgive the pun, in itself. Blood agent, nerve agent, choking agent, incapacitating agent, persistent agent, non-persistent agent are just a few variables for starters. Generally you need mass, so MBRLs in battalion handfuls should be the preferred method of delivery. Then of course there is the weather factor - wind direction, wind speed, temperature and humidity.
In terms of effect, it is going to depend on whether the folks on the receiving end have equipment to protect themselves against it and, where applicable, have taken drugs to ameliorate the effects of certain agents, and have the means to decontaminate.
They generally work on the basis of being a terror weapon so there is potentially a huge psychological effect but also as just a means of causing casualties that the medical chain has to deal with. Combine that with AFVs operating closed down and just the rigid PITA of performing basic tasks with a bulky suit on, your view of the world being restricted to two pieces of glass, your ears covered by the suit hood and wearing two pairs of gloves. Shooting, which I learned was a vaguely important soldiering skill during my time in two armies, in NBC kit is an art in itself. Now try and write on a log sheet, type on a computer, twiddle the dial on your radio or even speak, listen and be understood/understand on the radio with those gloves and that mask on.
Amen, brother. The worst 8 hours in my military career was 8 continuous hours in full 'Zoot' suit. I am not exaggerating. The worst 8 hours of my life in the military. I hate NBC training....
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Canada's UN Mission twitted a letter from the Russian UN Mission that was sent to all member countries. Canada's UN Mission decided to troll hard the letter by marking it up and returning to the Russian UN Mission.
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A number of assumptions would have to be true then.
1. Russian Army has not evolved or devolved from the doctrine of WW2 and Cold War days. Doesn't appear to be the case for this conflict.
2. They have the supply and logistics to keep ammo/fuel/etc to their artillery. That is very much in question right now.
3. The terrain and environmental conditions permit them to mass arty groups. Again, very much in question.
4. They have the command & control capability to tie it all together in a crescendo of doom. Very much in doubt.
Maybe the Russian arty will be the proverbial rabbit out the hat to save the day. I, for one, very much doubt to overcome all of the above to pull it off. Possible but it is steep odds against producing the rabbit they need.
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I am grateful that your friend got out, akd. A great many didn't. A sad reality but it is what it is.
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8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Yep. A lot of people don´t realize that from Putlers point of view this is not only about Ukraine. Here you can see what those fascists really have in mind. Europe needs to be prepared for that and take appropriate steps. One step is to deprive them of all possible means to wage war against neighbours in the foreseeable future.
LOL. Really. Pick your preferred answer from NATO, Soloviev.
1. You mad, bro? You mad?
2. Come at me, bro!
3. You cheeky monkey.
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53 minutes ago, BornGinger said:
Technically speaking, or how I should call it, he is a serial killer because he kills more than three separate individuals within a short period of time, which I think is the FBI definition of a serial killer, and this can be said about many other soldiers that are in active duty. The difference is that he, hopefully, doesn't get any sexual gratification from the killing which is what serial killers often seek from it.
Don't harsh my mellow....
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The sanctions are really biting, judging from the total bat s**t stuff being spouted on Russian state media. Like, mirror universe. the end of the Alice in Wonderland rabbit hole sort of stuff.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Or that Ukrainian special forces haven't infiltrated in and cut wires or replace explosives with play dough. Unless someone is doing a continuity test or visually checking the bridge demolitions daily, that is a possibility.