BlackMoria
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Posts
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Posts posted by BlackMoria
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9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Nope, but sabotage ops can.
Russian stocks and production are likely down if they are buying that many rounds. A few possibilities: 1) the reports of their war stocks was way over blown, 2) the war stocks they have are crap due to poor storage, 3) they have fired so many rounds that they need to re-stock to sustain operations, 4) UA actions have added to losses more significantly than they admit, and 5) domestic production cannot keep up with expenditure.
The reality is likely a combination of all of these. Regardless it is another indicator of the stress on the Russian military system - this time strategic. The only other explanation is if this was a pre-war buy that just came through but I do not see any evidence of this.
I would say all of the above.
1. Russian pronouncements tend to overblown when they talks quantities of something.
2. Based on a video earlier of a russian ammuntion train taken by someone amongst the ammo, the artillery ammo was heavy corroded, especially the fuzes.
3. Based on villages and cities leveled during far eastern offensive a few months ago and the many videos of landscapes that look like the surface of the moon, I would say there was zero consideration of ammunition expenditure concerns. I think that is catching up with them now.
4. Russian ammunition dumps have all sorts of 'accidents' as we observed over the last six weeks. Mountains of the ammo is going up in spectacular explosions.
5. I am certain that all facets of russian military capabilities are being stressed by the sanctions and corruption.
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Some humor....
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15 minutes ago, Rokko said:
I think if this happened to me in a CM turn, I would still consider this platoon as a write-off. More likely than not there's more shells coming from where the first three came from and the guns are basically already dialed in.
Now that you say it, though, I don't think I've seen any footage of airbursts at all from this war so far, which seems odd.
About a week ago, there was video of Excalibur rounds hitting soft skin vehicles and a dugout. Those are clearly airburst rounds... the signature explosion is unmistakable.
Edit: I was an artillery officer for 17 years and a forward observer for most of that time. Airburst rounds go off at a optimal 7 meters for variable time (VT) fuzes. Depending with distance and angle of view, that is low enough that an airburst can be mistaken for a normal point detonation fuze burst. So chances are good that airburst fuzes are being more commonly used...but we are not clearly seeing it in videos...because the 7 metre height and seeing if from a drone video (mainly overhead angle) from hundreds of metres distance makes the airburst look like a ground graze burst.
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22 minutes ago, Grigb said:
UK government cut UK armed forces to the bones. Look at what British Commandos had to use for landing at the station!
And it is not even motorized barge.
Fun fact - it seems RU are so stingy and lazy that they did not even bother to bring a tug. Absence of tug make a nice plot hole - it means RU army aviation is total crap that cannot catch running away UKR river tug.
[UPDATE] The plot is so thick now that I think it is thickest plot ever - UKR wanted to take IAEA hostages to prevent RU army from recapturing station.
But it also means that because it was Boris Johnson plan - Boris Johnson wanted to take IAEA hostages!
Anyone got a phone number of UK tabloids? I have a story to sell. 100% legit!
Seriously? I have no words for the absolute bull**** they are trying to pedal.
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Given how prickly Muslims tend to be against perceived threats to their faith, I don't see this playing well outside of Russia and Tatarstan.
So, two things come to mind.
1. Placate Iran (Shia) to get them closer to Russia.
2. Bonehead move because if the world largely hates you, might as well double down.
I'm thinking it is 1. But I can't rule out 2. Because stupid is as stupid does.
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14 minutes ago, sburke said:
Jack Sparrow!!!
"That is CAPTAIN Jack Sparrow!! And you have heard of me."
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23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Russian regimes often appear (sorry for word) "autistic" for the outside world- they percept reality and think in their own, procedural ways. Darya Dugin could be a literal sacrificial animal killed on the altar of Great Russia. Her father would probably very much like this thought, if it only would be about somebody's else child.
Do such esoteric cause can prompt violent assassination attempt on a woman? Doubtful. But not unthinkable in current conditions. Note, that also at least one effect is obvious- mass media all around the world speculated for several days about this assassination. So,if Russians needed to draw MM attention from something, they succeeded. I know- weak explanation, but knowing how ruthless Putin regime can be I am frankly inclined to believe in even more crazy theories.
Now we will see if tomorrow Russia will "retaliate" in any special way.
In Russia, this August is very hot:
Sheesh.... they are dropping the dropped lit cigarette excuse and going with spontaneous combustion now.
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2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
Possibly.... I grant that. But so called Russian visitors sniffing around a arms factory (not sure if was abandoned or not) and spraying some chemical agent in the face of security/police stopping them to ask what they are doing is pushing the concept of 'innocent'. But lets see how this plays out.
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My suggestion - all Russian visitors are subject to a obligatory customs and document check after a four hour wait, and a strip and body cavity search.
Russia called the tune. Time to pay the piper on this one.
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3 minutes ago, JonS said:
well, that'd be a first then, eh?
What is that line from Forest Gump? "Stupid is what stupid does..."
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This is very poorly thought out by Russia. Doing this is exactly what NOT to do if you want free movement of Russian citizens beyond the Russian border into the west. Now, this act of stupidity is exactly the pretext that the West needs to apply 'special conditions' to all Russian travellers and ramp up the denial of travel visas. NATO nations can now enact surveillance on Russian travellers and Russian can protest all they want but NATO now has the justification.
Absolute stupidity.... Well played, Russia.
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I concur. This smacks more of a settling of affairs between rival power groups than a targeted Ukrainian sanctioned assassination. There is bigger fish to fry than this tadpole from a Ukrainian point of view.
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The latest announced package by the US has Demolitions Equipment listed.
Ukraine - "Our SFs can do 's'podey' stuff now. Much beautiful fires. Warms the heart. Want more 's'podey' stuff to use.
US - Well then, 'S'podey' stuff you shall have ...
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24 minutes ago, kraze said:
Nah, everything was literally in the open for nearly a year at least. But people, who screamed on top of their lungs that Russia is going to invade soon were laughed at and had buckets of **** poured on them on TV. Intelligence officers daring to claim that invasion is happening soon were fired. It was a literal Don't Look Up for a year.
When that movie came out - it was extremely painful to watch and we still had two months to go.
Reminding me of this guy....
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
- They are saying some of their guys are not on LDNR anymore but in border areas doing some staff.
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Their terror attack is not guys running around with AK. Why bother if they can just pull D-20 and strike local Border/Police office also missing it and striking local shop full of people. What are you going to do? Counter-battery Russian territory? Tomorrow Ukraine hits Belgorod and RU Nats will decide in response to hit NATO targets inside NATO countries with Grads (because they already tried to hit UKR cities, and it did not work). What you gonna do when they pull these things alongside the NATO border?
- Right now they can attack Finland, Estonia and Latvia. But keep in mind that Luka is not your friend, and some parts are already under RU control. So, Lithuania and Poland are next.
- Keep in mind we are talking about RU in turmoil. You cannot guarantee that RU military will exist or will maintain order in border areas. You hit few suspicions guys only to discover they are illegal immigrants or smugglers.
We are not there yet. And it is not a dramatic threat. But you know it is easy to talk about how terror threat is meh until Bataclan happens.
Geo political complexities aside, if a rocket/artillery/whatever crosses a NATO border and damages or kills someone, it doesn't matter if it was planned Russian aggression military or non-military, russian or LPNR insurgents, a bunch of drunk yahoos who found a artillery piece to play around with or just lunatic nutjobs. It crosses the border and the NATO nation in question can invoke Article 5. Russia can't explain it away because by now, NATO knows when any spokesman for the Kremlin or Duma speaks, they are lying through their teeth.
This is more a problem for Russia than NATO. There will be always be hotheads out there, regardless of nationality. The issue for Russia is this - a hothead does something somewhere to NATO and if traced back to Russia. It is Russia that wears it. Not the hot heads. Russia can't afford to ignore their restive hotheads taking action into their own hands and triggering a uncontrolled escalation. And if they do... well, then, whatever falls on their heads falls on their heads.
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I don't think it be a game changer. All NATO has to do is capture a few of these mooks alive during an act, establish who they are. If Russian nationality, brand Russia as state sponsor of terrorism, then draw the red line that another act of aggression will invoke a discussion of Article 5 and the ramifications of that.
Russia will then send out their enforcer and 'wet' teams to deal with the loose cannons, because Russian doesn't want these groups escalating in an uncontrolled fashion. Russia did a similar thing with problematic Donbass separatists who were mucking up Moscow's plan.
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8 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:
In other news the Armed Forces of Malta could attack Italy in the event of a conflict.
It looks like strippers and cocaine are popular amongst the Belarusian higher ups as well.
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1 hour ago, chris talpas said:
Could be interesting to see how well the Russians execute an opposed amphibious operation
About as well as their bridging operations...
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3 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:
Let me guess, 99.9% of Alaskans would supposedly vote "yes" in becoming a part of Russia if this referendum was ever going to happen and administered by the Russian government.
Russian Official: *snorts a rail of coke off of the stripper's ass* "uh...yes"
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6 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
Huh.
Among the very orthodox, affixing a holy relic or icon to a person or object is believed to provide protection as a blessing from god. It obviously didn't work. Just like all superstitious beliefs.
Just another sign of how utterly bizarre this war has become.
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I checked out joining the International Legion when it was first was announced but at age 65 and 25 years out of the military, naturally it was a polite 'no'. Too old, not current or recent military and my medical history was a guaranteed 'no' but I tried.
So I did the next best thing. I had a $1500 DJI drone. I sent it to Ukraine as a donation in my stead. If I can't do my part, at least my drone can. I wonder at times every time there is a Ukrainian drone video, if it is my bird. That helps me get through all of this.
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14 minutes ago, Huba said:
There's a conclusion to this rant - today I sent a letter to my local Territorial Defense brigade. They are overflowing with volunteers at the moment, but I'll should be able to join in the winter, early next year at the latest.
It's OK, I'll have the time to get used to morning jogs I guess.
Huba, you have my profound and heartfelt respect. Seriously....respect.
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The most madding aspect of this war to me is the delusion the Russian nationalists/imperialists/knuckle draggers have that they still can "win" this war, despite all evidence across a wide spectrum on a wide range of metrics that it simply isn't going to happen. Russian isn't a great power anymore - it has not met that definition pre-Feb 24 and even less so now. That is got to be some fantastic 100 proof hooch that is being served up in tanker trucks that is being swilled in the power structures of Russia to continue to believe that all their stated objectives will be met by their beaten to crap army. Completely ignore that the expected 3 day op and a parade in Kiev is now 4+ months in. And everything is 'going to plan' we keep hearing from Kremlin talking heads. It is like they are snorting lines of coke off of a stripper's ass and then getting in front of a camera and proclaiming everything is going as planned and victory is just around the corner....yeah, right <eye roll>.
Except that dream is a nightmare now. Except they don't see it or accept it. And the dying on all sides just goes on and on.
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5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
I am so triggered about term "tank" being used for anything with tracks.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
As the line from Mississippi Burning movie.... "Looks like the rattlesnakes are committing suicide", referring to the Klan members starting to turn on each other.