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BlackMoria

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Posts posted by BlackMoria

  1. 1 hour ago, potato4212 said:

    When you see Zelenskys security detail they are armed with m4s and acogs. how common are NATO rifles in the Ukrainian army?  How many is NATO and the U.S supplying? 

    I don't know if actual numbers are available but just based on the anecdotal evidence of viewing hundreds and hundreds of videos, I would say, based on said videos, about 60% of videos I have seen have AK styles of weapons and the others show some western non-AK weapons.   Just a completely unscientific guess on my part, it seems like Ukrainian special forces use NATO weaponry and optics.  Foreign Legions uses lots of NATO gear (didn't in the beginning but I am seeing more and more recent Legion videos with NATO gear).   Lots of NATO gear in Kraken, it seems.   I suspect high profile units like the 93rd have lots of NATO gear.  Probably newly stood up formations seem to use more NATO rifles than AKs.   Again, just anecdotal evidence.  Perhaps Haiduk or some of the Ukrainian posters can cast more light on this. 

  2.  

    21 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

    (Tweet was linked since it shows most of the stupidity) Ignore Elon, and I do think it's just "trolling" on part of Medvedev, since the first tweet references wild predictions and unrealistic events, but notable that a senior Russian government official is calling Ukrainians pigs, in English.

    Damn, that is some fine 'south american snow' going up noses.  I wonder what the Kremlin budget is for this commodity.

  3. Heh.  Starshe Edda needs to learn what another 'geopolitical error'  is.  Attacking Poland or any other Baltic State.  Damn, the Russian bear's face is already stung and badly swollen from sticking it into the Ukrainian wasp nest.   And they want to do it again... with murder hornets this time.  That is some cosmic level stupidity going on right now.

  4. 35 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

    1: with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the Western Military District will revert back into the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts – like before 2010, as well as an Army Corps HQ in Karelia. This makes sense with NATO expansion, so this change checks out /3 

    2: Putin tells Shoygu he will have no funding restrictions and “the country and the government are providing everything that the army asks for” but for the ‘special military operation’ but there’s a catch: Shoygu has to fix the problems, to include mobilization. /4 

    If there is anything the last decade and war in Ukraine have shown, Sergey Kuzhegetovich Shoygu is the definitely the wrong person to give a lot of money to and ask to fix the military's problems. He is loyal to Putin so there's that. /5  

    3: Create three new vehicle repair and maintenance facilities. This makes sense. Shoygu then throws his predecessor under the bus about that, instead of acknowledging that he’s been in his job for ten years and had ample time to fix it himself /6 

    4: Conscription ages changes from 18-27 to 21-30. This is an odd shift. I don’t think it’s related to demographics, unless so many in that 18-21 age group fled Russia in 2022 leaving them in an unexpected bind. I’ll need more time to think this through. /7 

    5: 3 new divisions will be created in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Makes sense..but how? From units already deployed there, pulling from strategic reserve of older equipment, moving units from other mil districts, or just not filling them? /8 

    6: uh-oh more divisions: convert 7 Ground Forces brigades into divisions , continuing a slow process of rollbacks from the “New Look” reforms. They’ve been doing this slowly for 10 years. The problem is this: they need more people and more equipment to make these units larger /9 

    7: more divisions! coastal defense brigades to be converted into divisions. need more people and equipment, both are in short supply. /10 

    8: divisions again - the VDV will form two additional air assault divisions. the VDV in 2022 is so severely degraded it will be a struggle to return to prewar levels in the year ahead, but they want to increase it. That will be hard /11 

    7: raise contract servicemen numbers to 695,000 of a planned 1.5 million military billets. These numbers may be a goal, but they aren’t realistic, given their casualties, resignations, and what I presume must be recruiting and retention problems for contractniki /12 

    8: Shoygu says in 2023 the Russian military will “continue the special military operation until the tasks are fully completed.” open-ended. /13 

    What do I take away from this speech? At a workshop this summer, I noted we should not assume the General Staff will learn the correct lessons from the war. Wrong lessons could include a regeneration plan cooked up by parochial interests, and Arbat generals in the General Staff 

    The wrong lessons I thought at that time would be things like, letting the Ground Forces continue to dominate all discussions, creating more divisions, more conscripts to recreate something vaguely Soviet…/14 

    ..instead of understanding the correct lessons for what went wrong – like excessive secrecy and letting the intel services plan the war, poor use of the VKS, and insufficient enablers for precision munitions, and commanders so toxic as to undermine combat capabilities /15 

    To me, this speech is a sign the General Staff is learning the wrong lessons and parochial interests are taking over in many ways. Many have hated brigades since they were announced in 2009. /16 

    The General Staff concludes they need larger units for high intensity war, and the brigade and BTG do not suit their needs. Part of that is true – the BTG was not designed for this kind of war. /17 

    The Russian military was purposefully redesigned in 2009 away from the kind of war it is fighting in 2022 but they didn't fix the force design before the war they chose to launch. /18

    Not Built for Purpose: The Russian Military’s Ill-Fated Force Design - War on the Rocks

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a deeply flawed military operation, from Moscow’s assumptions about an easy victory, to a lack of preparation, poor

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

    With nearly half of the Russian Ground Forces estimated to be wounded and killed in 2022, and a major percentage of their active duty armored equipment destroyed (30-50%), they announce they need more soldiers and larger units. /19 

    Increases also to tactical aviation: three air divisions, 8 bomber regiments, 1 fighter regiment, six army aviation (helos) brigades. Each Ground Forces combined arms army will have mixed aviation division/brigade of 80-100 helos. /20 

    But these plans - bigger units more people --don’t make a lot of sense for Russia’s new reality. With losses of personnel, equipment, and a loss of trust more broadly, they will struggle to make these plans a reality. /21 

    TL:DR: these plans are not based on Russia's reality and a lot of folks on the Arbat have a little too much Soviet nostalgia and can't face what has happened on their watch. /end 

    Harsh!  There is a lot of "coke lines snorted off of strippers asses"  fueled delusions going on there. Bigger  units? More units?   Equipment with what, pray tell?   That wasn't addressed.    A whole of 'magical' thinking going on there...

  5. 3 hours ago, Ultradave said:

    I'm 66 and a cancer survivor. I still run 4 times a week, bike, and swim at the Y. Took a bit to get back to seriousness after chemo but feeling strong now. One thing they told me was that they see that people who are in good health and good shape have the fewest issues handling chemo. Gotta' say I'm glad I WAS in good shape because chemo was a b1tch. Don't recommend. Zero stars out of 5.

    My wife is also a runner. She's 68 and looks like she's about 50. Our ultra running days are behind us but I can't stop running. 

    Dave

    I envy you.  17 years of humping a ruck in full tactical fighting order means I can't run anymore.  My knees are shot.  Best I can do is a slow jog and only a short distance.

  6. 1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

    He’s been in jail for 10 years, he’s an arms dealer, who thinks he retains enough connections, money, to start up his business? And if he did, it’s likely with Russian government support, meaning if not him, it would have been someone else doing it, making it irrelevant. He was slated be released in 2029, only 7 years later, wait a bit longer and maybe Russia decides Bout can finish the 5 years and says no exchange. 

     

    Here's a thought - Russian wanted this guy because as a infamous arms dealer, they need him and his connections to get them arms.   Seems obvious to me why the Russians want him now and didn't express much interest a few months ago....

  7. 10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Heh... I live in a similar climate, though we don't get those temps until January or early February.  I have long since learned not to kick or slam plastic things when the temps get that low.  OK, "learned" is not the right term because just last year I kicked my plastic snow scoop and put my foot straight through it.  Learning is apparently an ongoing thing :)

    Steve

    Heh ... the North American auto industry decided that plastic bumpers would be a great cost saver.  Not!   I had a Dodge Caravan van.  Very cold day and my daughter took it out and hit a huge a** porcupine crossing the highway.   Explaining to the auto insurance people the porcupine shaped hole knocked out of the plastic bumper was a interesting exercise.

    Insurance adjuster:  "Did you hit a rock or something?"

    Me:  "No.  A huge porcupine crossing the highway"

    Insurance adjuster:  *blink*blink* "No way that was caused by hitting a porcupine."

    Me: "Here is quills as proof and pictures my daughter took, including the deceased porcupine."

  8. 3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    These drones fly high.  The temperatures at that altitude will be significantly colder than on the ground.  More importantly, freezing isn't the standard to go by.  Cold is.  The plastics have to be formulated for the temperatures they are operating in.  If the operating temperature is too cold or too warm, the plastic becomes brittle.  Cold and warm are defined by the plastic's characteristics, not an arbitrary number such as freezing.

    Steve

    Weather would be my savior where I live right now.   I woke up to a rather brisk -32C this morning and it is only early December.   Best of luck sending a drone my way other than by courier or mail.  😁

  9. 4 minutes ago, Huba said:

    And again, being an ocean away from any enemies, US is at a huge advantage. 

    This drone tech get into the hands of non-state actors like terrorist organizations or any a**holes with a axe to grind.   Imagine ISIS or Al Queda smuggling several of these into a Central America country, the Caribbean islands or Cuba, where security might be a little lax for such things and then launching an attack on the mainland US.

    If no one but me as thought of this possibility, there is too few people with an imagination in the world.  I have been thinking of this the past several days - if I was head of Cobra (a comic book terrorist organization) and I had access to this drone tech, what could I do with it?  The ramifications of what I came up with would keep you guys up at night.  And I am not the only smart guy in the room.

    Here is your appetizer - cargo container ship loaded up with several hundred of these drones and sit off shore of whatever country and do your terrorist attack.   Sleep well tonight with that little thought of what is possible in the very near future....

  10. 3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    This is likely the first real war of the 21st century colliding with the last war of the 20th. A whole lot is up in the air. Which kind of makes me wonder if every major war isn’t a collision of the old and new - a deadly theatrical demonstration of the evolution of human civilization every time.  Of course if war is an evolutionary process, it begs the question - what are we evolving into?

    I see the writing on the wall being of long distance warfare using drones.  Soon everyone and their dog will have drones like the one the Ukrainians are nearly development of with a sizeable warhead and 1000 km range. It is a certainty at this point.  

    So, warfare will be launching swarms of these drones at another countries military infrastructure and critical civilian infrastructure.  We see that playing out right now - Russia is missiling Ukraine are a regular basis and Ukraine is showing they are getting the tech to do the same in response.  That will up in tempo if Russia gets any more capability in that regard and Ukraine is soon going to demonstrate that "if that is how the game is going to be played, we will do it better".

    And don't think for a moment that militaries everywhere are not looking on with interest and taking mountains of notes.

    Besides drone tech, the next surge needs to be in some way to counter drone swarms of poor man cruise missiles with 1000km+ range.  I don't have an answer to that but that is where this is headed so better start locking up the think tank people in rooms and have semi trucks of energy drinks outside those rooms because we need to figure this out... like yesterday.

  11. 1 hour ago, sburke said:

    Belarus' top diplomat, ally to president, dies at 64 - ABC News (go.com)

     

    TALLINN, Estonia -- Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, a longtime associate of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, has died at age 64.

    Belarusian authorities didn't name the cause of death. Makei wasn't known to suffer from any chronic illness.

    Prior to becoming foreign minister in 2012, Makei served as Lukashenko's chief of staff and earlier had worked as presidential adviser.

    Must of stood too close to a open window, perhaps.😆

  12. I hope it is what is really happening.   Ukrainian forces need to get across the river and encourage the russians to get off the riverline as a defense and encourage them to keep rolling away.  Because unless that is done soon, a defense based on the Dnipro is going to harden up, making a push down the east side of the river the only real viable option to dislodge the russians in that area.  

  13. 30 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    That is a really good way to throw or break a track.  In fact they might have but the video cuts off pretty quick after the hit.

    Definitely not the thing to do.  This from a person whose tracked carrier has thrown a track three time.  One of those was both tracks, an amazing feat, I am told.  Not hard to do at all.... just plow through a forest of deadfall at high speed.  😆

  14. In Canada, on this our Remembrance Day - besides remembering the sacrifice of Canadians in various conflicts and peacekeeping missions, I am also very aware of the huge loss of life in service of the Ukrainian soldiers who fought for their homeland and their people.  I am reminded all the time.  In Manitoba, our province has a immense Ukrainian Canadian  population and I can't go anywhere without seeing Ukrainian flags everywhere.  And a lot of Ukrainian Canadians returned to Ukraine to fight for their ancestral homeland.   Some will return home to Canada some day, others will not. The sad reality of war.

    So on this Remembrance Day, I raise my stein as in past Remembrance Days and intone that simple ancient Norse toast - "To Our Honored Dead!"    I include all Ukrainian soldiers who have lost their lives thus far in that toast.   They have truly earned entry into the Halls of Valhalla.

     Sláva Ukrayíni!

     

  15. 8 minutes ago, paxromana said:

    As have I! Around the same time I subscribed to S&T Magazine and bought Panzerblitz! Loing time roleplayer and wargamer (tho much better at the former than the latter). 

    Damn!  I have a library of over a hundred SPI games/games from S&T magazine.  We obviously ran in the same type of gaming circles, just on different continents.  Salute to a fellow wargamer/roleplayer.  

  16. 2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    I still remember Mariupol and Russians stopping thousands of refugees, shelling humanitarian corridors etc. Did it had any adverse effect domestically? Nope, even streghtened Russian will. Engaging in (limited) bloodbath actually reinforce sense of participation in polity like Russian one, and subsequently can help his war effort. Unlike with the grain deal, where Putin was forced to include real core interests of externel actors, taking Kherson' population hostage will not trigger immediate response but rather another letters of condemnation. He can, and already lives with that.

    Yup, Stalingrad also comes to mind. From Kremlin side perception and emotions may overrule military needs and frame set of victory conditions on its own. To put it in banal Dungeons and Dragons terms- remember Putin upbringing, he is Thief/Ilussionist, not Warrior or Paladin. So if he will be able to protract whole withdrawal for enough time and cause feel of disconcern/boredoom/lost chances on Western and Ukrainian side, he will come out as winner of whole situation. Or at least not a looser. Enough food for his propaganda to spin it somehow.

    I hope Ukrianians will not fall for this and remain focused on cautious/minimalist gains. Militarly Russian "Galipolli" scenario is not desired by Ukraine, but on other foot may be preferable to other outcomes because of humanitarian and political reasons. Really devilish bargain.

    I have bad feeilng that it will not play out for Ukraine the way we would like to; it will be RU strategic defeat, but not as decisive, effortless or fast as initially thought. In the end, we will see, perhaps I am wrong and Russians simply leave whole area within days with hundreds and thousands of abandoned amrour. The moment when river become target for Ukrainian barrel artilley will probably be crucial, and decisive if we will see Gallipolli, Dunkirk, Falaise or Stalingrad scenario.

    About the dam I mean Kakhovka. Of course potentially damaged by "Ukraonazi terrorist". There is also Nuclear Plant near by, hundreds of thousands of potential hostages, and so on. Putin has still plenty of cards in his sleeve, a piece of cake if somebody is not afraid to play them. And empathy is weakness in Tsar's world.

    +1 for the D&D reference!!  Been playing D&D in its various incarnations since 1974.  😆

     

  17. 33 minutes ago, paxromana said:

    Asylums>

    ... oooh, wait

    Senior's housing and high school yards.....  I am not being sarcastic.  In the end days of the Third Reich, old men and high school kids were pressed into service.  I remember a photo from the end days of WW2 with several American soldiers guarding some captured German teen boys, the youngest, which was 12 yrs old according to the photo.   Russia could get there yet.

  18. 6 minutes ago, chrisl said:

    It sounds scarier.  Like the "Phoenix Ghost" drone - it's got an ominous name and there's no information on what it is, so it's scarier than if someone said "we put hand grenades on RC airplanes with inertial guidance systems"

    These drones aren't in the category of "we put hand grenades on RC airplanes with inertial guidance systems".   Hand grenades don't do the damage in the photo.   These Iranian drones are more like modern versions of German V1s from WW2 that are propellor driven and smaller.  

    Drone strike.jpg

  19. Yes, objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.... I agree.   If that is an anti-tank ditch and the forward infantry / vehicle dig ins are supposed to be in that tree line, the damn ditch is too damn close to the defensive works.  An anti-tank ditch needs to be close enough that it can be covered by supporting and directed fires from the defensive works but far enough out that the defenders can rain indirect fire from artillery or mortars on the heads of the attackers trying to win past the obstacle belt.   The ditch is ... what... about 100 metres from the treeline, there abouts. Far too close for indirect fire without suppressing or inflicting casualties on your own forces, give the inaccuracy of Russian artillery.

    Properly prepared defenses are still a necessary component of the defense in the 21st century.   But the emphasis in on the word 'properly'.  My combat engineer buddy would look at that video and shake his head.

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