Offshoot
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Posts posted by Offshoot
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A machine gun Baba Yaga in what appears like actual combat and not just testing (couldn't find the original so Reddit link). It looks pretty stable while firing but the FPV view is a bit janky for aiming - https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1cugo35/thats_new_ukrainian_baba_yaga_drone_engaging/
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On 5/17/2024 at 3:56 AM, Battlefront.com said:
What I would love to know is how much terrain Russia thought it might be able to take before the lines firmed up. Did they get everything they were looking for? Were they hoping for more and aren't going to get it?
Some interviews with Russians captured in the Kharkiv region (captions not great but good enough to get the gist) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4klaEw9tvg
The first, who signed a contact in March, claims it was his battalion's task to capture Vovchansk in two days. Just the word of a lowly private but funny in light of the three-day SMO. The second was transferred out of his original unit because the commander didn't like his tattoo saying "Russian occupier".
A lot has been said here about what the Kharkiv offensive will mean for Ukraine and what Russia's goals are, but what effect will it have on the wider war for Russia? I had the impression from the Freedom Legion et al.'s raids that the Russian border was also very lightly defended. Now Russia has supposedly 50,000 troops on the border with the Kharkiv rather than stationed elsewhere. If the number of 500,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine is correct, that is 10% of their entire force. I suppose Russia could pull them out and say it was just a raid in revenge for the raids into Russia but it would be an expensive demonstration.
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Reporting from Ukraine has a narrative on the Kharkiv offensive ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi_mMG9Bdwk ). According to him, it is under the command of General Aleksandr Lapin (who lost at Lyman) and Ukrainian intelligence knew about the build up, the numbers of Russian troops involved (50,000) and roughly when the Russians were going to start. Given the number of Russians is way too small to achieve possible objectives of taking Kharkiv or Vovchansk, his conclusion is that the main purpose is to try and draw Ukrainians away from other areas to make gains there easier, but it hasn't worked so far. Apparently there are also heavy fortifications around Kharkiv and east so it's possible the Ukrainians were prepared to yield ground. The Russians also have not just strolled in unopposed but have suffered losses there.
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RE the discussion about countering Russian GPS jammers, it looks like the US is going to try GPS jam seekers on JDAMs, though work won't be completed for over a year - https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract/Article/3765102/
QuoteAIR FORCE: Scientific Applications and Research Associates Inc., Cypress, California, was awarded a $23,554,341 firm-fixed-price and cost-plus-fixed-fee, undefinitized contract for the acquisition of Home-on GPS Jam seekers. This contract provides for the integration of the extended range seekers into existing Joint Direct Attack Munition wing kits. Work will be performed at Cypress, California, and St. Louis, Missouri, and is expected to be completed by Oct. 1, 2025. This contract involves Foreign Military Sales to Ukraine. This contract was a sole source Small Business Innovation Research Phase III acquisition. Fiscal 2023 operation and maintenance funds in the amount of $9,961,706 are being obligated at time of award. The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center, Hill Air Force Base, Utah, is the contracting activity (FA8213-24-C-0017).
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1 hour ago, JonS said:
Wouldn't "twice more than" equal 150,000 total?
This would depend on whether you twice the 50,000 or twice the twice for 200,000.
Quibbling aside, I assumed the interviewee is a non-native English speaker and really meant "twice as much". If he indeed meant 150,000, "twice more than" would be a very strange construction when "three times more" or just saying the number would be simpler and more obvious.
EDIT: another article on losses by Meduza who helped develop the methodology mentioned by the "twice more than" guy - https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/02/24/at-least-75-000-dead-russian-soldiers. This covers the period up to late 2023 and they estimate 75,000 dead by that time. I think it reasonable to assume then that their estimated number is currently around 100,000.
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26 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Disappointing if true.
These are confirmed (i.e. they know the name) deaths only relying on public records. The group tracking them have estimated the actual number is around twice as much - https://www.npr.org/2024/04/18/1245495971/at-least-50-000-russian-troops-have-been-killed-in-ukraine-media-probe-finds
QuoteAnd obviously, from the very start we understood that that's not everyone, every Russian soldier that died, because not all are reported. Not all cemeteries could be visited by volunteers and so on. We did, together with another independent news outlet, Meduza, we came up with a methodology to estimate the overall amount based on the probate registry. And that gives a number of approximately twice more than 50,000.
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18 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:
I was frankly stunned by the graph I saw passed around yesterday.
Is the graph heading missing some zeros? 200K a month seems pretty trivial really even as a spike.
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9 minutes ago, Kraft said:
There is a database with 15 thousand confirmed losses. It wouldnt take too much effort to check it, right now like 3 people are doing all the geolocation and duplocate checking work for it.
The big outlets have enough resources. The current projections for when russia runs out of tanks is being done by 1 person who finances his satelite images by donations and himself. Surely the BBC can do better?
The BBC has been involved in compiling a list of know Russian dead since Feb 2022 from social media, cemeteries, etc. - Russia's meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead
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48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Since the soldiers are complaint, if not comfortable, with the idea of dying for a dead empire dream, they will keep fighting.
Hopefully this guy and more like him can get the message out then. He makes no bones about it not being worth it.
QuoteHe says that only fools would entertain such an idea, as any sense of patriotism fades rapidly once you realise that you want to live.
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8 hours ago, dan/california said:
A credible report that Ukraine is pulling its one ~battalion of Abrams out of active combat because current combat conditions are making them ineffective and to vulnerable, especially drones. I am filing this one firmly in the tank is dead file.
QuoteThe 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade of Ukraine's Armed Forces has dismissed as fake the report by the Associated Press that the Ukrainian Defence Forces have withdrawn US-supplied Abrams tanks from the battlefield due to the threat of Russian drone attacks.
Source: 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade on Telegram
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"It didn't work for multiple reasons, including [the] EMI [electromagnetic interference] environment, including just really ... doing it on [the] ground, the TTPs [tactics, techniques, and procedures], the DOTML [the doctrine, organization, training, and materiel] – it just didn't work," LaPlante explained. "And what happens is, when you send something to people in the fight of their lives, [and] it doesn't work, they'll try it three times and then they just throw it aside. So that's happened, too."
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The story of how the Ukrainians stole the EW tank - Cirque du Soleil acrobat steals T-72
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6 hours ago, kimbosbread said:
Here’s a question: Of the truck-based artillery, which is better, Caesar or Archer? Archer sounds great from the whole shoot and scoot perspective and automation (and thus less injuries carrying stuff and TBI), but Caesar appears to cheaper and lighter.
Don't forget the Bohdana - Ukraine’s Bohdana howitzer is rolling off production lines – here’s what it can do
It sounds like it is not without problems, but if Ukraine can produce enough the numbers and self-sufficiency might help.
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To add some nuance to the numbers, note that the big change in democracy to autocracy from 2010-2021 is due almost completely to ONE country, India. Also note that the numbers for liberal democracies have not declined greatly (map and 2nd table showing total populations - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/how-many-people-live-in-a-political-democracy-today/) despite Canada's best efforts.
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A couple of videos of drone teams, one using the Baba Yaga and another in Kherson. They show the communication between recon drone and attack drone teams.
Ukrainians training soldiers on semi-automatic shotguns as a counter to drones - Ukrainian military practices to counter drones with guns
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Given the recent discussion on weapon systems, here is an article on the Patriot, its success in Ukraine and how this is increasing demand for it and perhaps increasing its longevity
How Patriot proved itself in Ukraine and secured a fresh future
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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Turtle-tank %)
Video of it (from the 2 minute mark)
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Is this normal? In both instances it looks like over 20 personnel disembark from a single vehicle. I didn't know you could even fit that many on a tank. From recent videos the Russians have lost a lot of equipment over the past weeks, so are men plentiful but vehicles not so much now?
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5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Do they have a vodka detector board? Because I would think that would be quite useful!
Steve
Vodka is just ethanol plus water, so yes
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1 hour ago, chrisl said:
As far as I've seen so far, both sides are doing all this with a very conventional sensor set (Vis/IR cameras and GPS, mostly) and and haven't really ventured into RF or chemotaxis.
I just looked on AliExpress and ethanol detector boards can be had for a few dollars a piece. Sensors for methanol and antifreeze might be a bit more expensive.
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2 hours ago, Kinophile said:
Major (c. 90) drone strike against Russian Su-34 airfield.
Possibly more than 1 airfield, there's mention of 3, but not confident.
Claims of 6 destroyed and 8 damaged aircraft
Recent satellite pictures of the airfield
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The HUR making some bold claims
‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack
QuoteSenior officials from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service indicate it is plotting a third attempt on the bridge, after two previous attempts to blow it up, claiming its destruction is “inevitable”.
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The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”.
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Ukraine planned to strike more Russian targets, Skybytskyi claimed, with undercover agents playing a part. Some were “Russians with Ukrainian roots”; others were non-ideological Russians recruited in exchange for payments. The “pool” was so large the HUR could pick and choose candidates for sabotage operations, he said.
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The manufacturer of the Caesar is talking it up and saying that it's characteristics are helping it to survive better on the modern battle field compared to other self-propelled guns
In Ukraine, ‘shoot-and-scoot’ tactics helping Caesars survive
QuoteUkraine has lost less than 10% of the truck-mounted Caesar howitzers it received from France and Denmark, with greater mobility resulting in a higher survival rate than for some other self-propelled or towed systems, according French manufacturer KNDS Nexter.
Losses for some other self-propelled or towed systems in Ukraine’s war with Russia amount to nearly 30%, the company said in a statement to Defense News, without providing specifics...
“Use of drones and loitering munitions has become a real threat 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the front, where the Caesar operates,” Nexter said in the statement. “Its light weight and ability to leave its position in less than a minute to avoid counter-battery fire are therefore major assets.”
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1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:
People tend to believe in things that reinforce their worldviews and disbelieve things that don't fit within that worldview. Everyone has a weakness that can be exploited by someone else.
It's ironic that you exactly prove your point by posting an outrage-farming video by someone with a clear political bias watching a video by someone else with a political bias (who misrepresents what people say and asks leading questions) rather than actual data. I will not discuss US politics as I am not American, it is off-topic and it will just lead to a ****-show, so consider this post in the vein of how to form evidence-based opinions, which has been a central point of discussion over the past few pages.
Here is an actual study on this topic. Note how they outline their methodology and openly discuss the limitations of the study. You are also free to decide for yourself if these are meaningful when spread out over the entire population (though you would really need to look more closely at local situations given the way the electoral system works).
WHO LACKED PHOTO ID IN 2020?: An Exploration of the American National Election Studies
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
He does put a pro-Ukrainian slant on a lot of his videos and mostly reports on Ukrainian successes, though has also reported on significant losses in the past.
What he does is supply a narrative to a lot of disconnected videos and Ukrainian and Russian sources that aren't readily accessible for a particular operational region. I have found these help to understand what is going on in these areas more easily.
Most of his videos are confined to the tactical or operational level and avoid prognostications on what is going to happen. They also have been accurate so long as the source material is accurate.
Just don't look at the thumbnails, an unfortunate side effect of having to get noticed on youtube.