Lethaface
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Posts posted by Lethaface
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11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Sharing this for the two videos. One showing rather impressive mud/water capability of a TOS-1A. The other of someone that will grow up in a free democracy because of the sacrifice of a lot of her countrymen.
It has the chassis of T-72.
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Also extraordinarily helpful and eloquent 'facts on the ground':
1. Black Horse HQ redeploys to IVO Izium, with cantonments and training grounds sharing defence responsibility with fully 'Westernised' UA mech forces deployed in the central Karkhiv-Izium-east Luhansk oblast 'bulge' of Ukraine. Think CENTAG -- UA [Bundeswehr] fully integrated with US commands. Fulda Gap. Whatever 'heavy' means, it is deployed at full scale right heah! Go ahead, make our day....
2. Polish-Czech heavy armoured division IVO Dnipro and Poltava (which btw is also a forward TAC base and EW command centre). Attach heavily subsidised Romanian pioneer brigade (come on, you DID get your frontier restored to the Dnistr postwar in 2025, by popular referendum. Do your bit!)
....Here, my pathetic little US satrapy
can even contract some cranky old EOD sea lawyers to manage private contractors (I could accurately name the nations providing the actual sappers, but it would be distinctly nonwoke) clearing about ten bazillion mines/UXO in Donbas... that is actually the most dangerous postwar work, no joke.
3. 101 AB RCT in Kyiv backstops UA forces on the frontier from Chernaiv to Kyiv. TBH, the UA has nothing really to learn about combat from the 101st, but it's always nice to professionalise and integrate the 'tail'.
4. Ideally, Anglo-US HQ advisory and training elements -- perhaps Étrangère as well? -- are based around Gomel, in a newly democratic but utterly Anything Goes Belarus.
Minsk becomes the weirdest, edgiest and most violent city in Europe, the sole entrepot of the post-Soviet Mafiyas. Tombstone 1889, or Shanghai 1924....
Я твой Гекльберри.
...Notice that 'NATO' plays no formal role in any of this for 10+ years.
****
So now we wander off the map of military into Emerging Markets possibility space.
1. By about 2032, Ukraine, Europe's GMP compliant manufacturing hub, has already reached middle income status on a national average per capita GDP basis.
2. Fantastic yakitori, chaat and vegan Texmex, plus gourmet coffee, is standard fare in youthful hi-tech edge cities exploding in quaint Old Town / university areas of all Ukraine's major cities.
3. Ukrainian biopharma / biotech eats China's (and India's) lunch with amazing speed, moving to the world's R&D leading edge (daily nonstop flights Odessa-Tel Aviv).
4. With avid lobbying from the private sector (fine, just say George Soros if you're into that kind of thing, but it's pretty ecumenical in reality), Ukraine achieves EU membership by 2028, well before NATO becomes feasible.
5. @kraze , realising that Living Well Is the Best Revenge, claims 'reparations' from ambiguously legal Muscovite massage therapists, one lap dance at a time.
In addition to his tireless custom but stingy tipping, he also gains some notoriety in the trade by insisting the 'visiting artists' recite verses from Pushkin and Bulgakov on the karaoke machine whilst Performing, with the bass reverb cranked up to Eleven....
Ни мамы, ни папы, ни газировки с виски. Нет русской возлюбленной!
6. Coincidentally, rumour spreads that certain videos are embedded as easter eggs in CMBS2 scenarios. Shall we say, ahem, 'Enemy Condition' finally becomes meaningful in achieving Total Victory. Whose grass mod are you using, winkwinknudgenudge?
7. CM product sales soar faster than a Stalinist pig iron quota, particularly for the Professional Edition. Steve retires to Stalin's former palace at Yalta (several degrees warmer than Vermont) and makes bank as a docent, with the grudging assent of his wife, while obdurately refusing to fix the PzKwIII turret rotation bug, or sumfink.
6. Meanwhile, across the bristling 2023 frontier, maquiladoras flourish, first in Crimea and Kuban, then in Belgorod and Voronezh... and, wait for it, Chechnya (where Kadyrov has finally achieved martyrdom after enjoying too much lamb with apricots at the halal buffet).
Bored, totally unfunded Russian generals are only too happy to put their mobiks/zeks/ fanatical brainwashed Third Rome Zoomers to profitable (for the generals) work in sweatshops, picking and packing pills and chips, since 'hohols' can no longer can be found to do those jobs across the (densely fortified and mined but increasingly porous) frontier.
....So yeah, about that combat Readiness for that Next War, against peoples who are presently funding your commanders' beach houses in Cyprus.
8. Sadly, the shattered and depopulated Donbas will take at least 12 years and billions in reconstruction aid and subsidies to start showing signs of economic life again. 'Clean energy' on the steppes is probably the thin edge of the wedge.
(copains, please don't take this too literally, it's presented more as a counterpoint to the last 20 pages or so. But such trajectories did /are happening in Asia, in spite of dysfunctional rulers and seemingly shattered infra and social contracts. Take a look at today's Cambodia, which quite literally devoured about a third of itself nearly half a century ago!)
I forgot weekend starts early when it's 7+ hours later
Sure reads more pleasant than about the nukes but not sure if Kraze can get warmed up listening to Bulgakov while getting a Russian massage. Nothing impossible though.
Salut!
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10 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Always look on the bright side of life...
The same song also goes 'always look on the bright side of death'
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2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Even if he die earlier, the problem by that point will be much broader than Vlad himself- it will be successive Russian politicians dwelling on feeling of defeat/misery/betrayal. Corruption is not exclusive with fanaticism in any way, actually if used smartly by rulers it may even enforce their views "whole world is against us". We talked abut it extensivelly when Grigb was still around.
That's why we need both strong Ukraine and protected Eastern Flank- they can try to respond by irresponsible actions in the future. State terrorism, further mercenary companies in and abroad, hybrd warfare of various kinds etc. Looking at propagadna machine as well as Russian political mainstream, I see cascading radicalization- threats against Berlin, London or Helsinki are flying daily, on main channels (this was rather limited at the start of the conflict); not even counting Warsaw or Tallin. 75% of it is theatre for now, but even if I would be Western European (German, Scandinavian or Dutch) I wouldn't sleep very well knowing what they are talking there. Sooner or later they may find some desperados.
I don't let those garbage spouting puppets ruin my sleep, I think it's not even worthy listening to too much. Unless you work for intelligence and get paid to record it ;-).
But indeed whole Europe/EU/NATO and obviously Ukraine need to make sure they have the power to prevent future (hybrid) special operations, incursions, peacekeepers, green-man; the whole playbook. -
1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:
That is also one of my greatest concern regarding this war. Katsaps started to zombify population much too late and not deep enough to form serious ideological drive for ongoing conflict, but unless they will not stop soon, in window of let's say 5-10 years from now their resentiment will be massive. By that time nobody will even know what the war was about, because it will be their only reality. Even when we manage to broker stable peace, we will have to deal with genuinly fashist state for perhaps decades. Unless they collapse of course, but I think this is very unlikely. Anyway, very bad emotions will run high there for at least a generation.
If they manage to successfully brainwash large parts of the new generations, that doesn't bode well indeed. Who knows the usual corruption will also undermine these efforts. At least Putin will have a good chance of dying in 5-10 years.
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4 minutes ago, photon said:
About two thousand pages ago I suggested that the best analogical comparison to the Russians was the Japanese. The Russians really do appear to be emulating the Japanese playbook, which puts us somewhere after Pearl Harbor (the failed attempt to decapitate Ukraine and win in three days), the Solomons campaign (analogical to the attritional summer Bakhmut offensive), after the beginning of Cartwheel and the push up the Marianas (the one-two punch of the Ukrainian fall offensives), and around the time of the battle of the Philippine Sea, when the declining quality of Japanese aviators really began to tell (perhaps Vulhedar and that failed river crossing). The Russians even appear to be attempting gyokusai-like assaults in the Donbas.
To me the open question is how to convince the Russians to abandon a war that they've already lost. It took firebombing, nuclear weapons, and the undersea blockade to get the Japanese leadership there, and that almost resulted in a civil war. How does the west communicate to the Russians that they've lost without similar loss of life?
Japan is still stuck in China and hasn't attacked USA yet.
ChinaUkraine will hopefully soon be able communicate toJapanRussia that they've lost because they weather the 'storm' of the coming 'father of all offensives' and counterpunch right through the spend Russian forces at Bakhmut / Vulhedar, while HIMARSing the rear.
But I don't see anyone attacking into Russia proper let alone occupation or nukes, so the end won't be like the end of the war with Japan. -
5 minutes ago, Butschi said:
The problem here is: Putin & Cronies can press the Big Red Button without asking the rest of the Russian people first. If they go irrational and soldiers just follow orders that is enough to start Armageddon no matter how rational the Russian people is.
At least it will be a sight to behold, I advise looking directly into the light because the aftermath won't be as pretty. I guess the city I live in would be directly targeted because there is a military base. It will be quick.
If they go crazy there's little we can do about it anyway, apart from trying to kill m. But doing that might be a trigger in itself. So not much point to worry about it I'd say. Plus I don't think they are that crazy.
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16 minutes ago, poesel said:
Tsk - do you zink ve are some 26 letter alphabet peasantz? Ve also have Ä, Ö, Ü und ß to choose from.
That's just because you need a rule for everything
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2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:
I was curious about the entire trade and economics scale in all this. The economic ties between China and the USA are well known. I know less about the amount of trade between Taiwan and China. And how important Taiwan’s exports are for China. As far as I could tell, imports from Taiwan are China’s second largest, behind the entire combined EU, and ahead of the USA. Please correct if wrong. Looked first at importance of China for Taiwan’s exports, and then the importance of Taiwan for China as an overall source for its own imports. The chart was surprising to me. A blockade would hurt China, let alone the destruction of much of Taiwan’s infrastructure. Apologies if this was already well covered..
“Last year, mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s exports, while the U.S. had a 15% share, according to official Taiwan data accessed through Wind Information.
In all, Taiwan exported $188.91 billion in goods to mainland China and Hong Kong in 2021. More than half were electronic parts, followed by optical equipment, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance.As a source of Taiwan’s imports, mainland China and Hong Kong again ranked first with a 22% share. The U.S. only had a 10% share, ranking behind Japan, Europe and Southeast Asia.”China Imports by Country Last Previous European Union 34693700.00 24717800.00 USD THO Feb/20 Taiwan 19225530.44 17419298.71 USD THO Dec/22 United States 15911753.06 16476130.54 USD THO Dec/22 Japan 14715460.09 14153420.64 USD THO Dec/22 South Korea 14379358.00 15370164.00 USD THO Dec/22 Australia 11070900.79 11761709.91 USD THO Dec/22 Malaysia 10210735.40 10212144.54 USD THO Dec/22 Germany 9088666.45 9003880.69 USD THO Dec/22 Russia 8996554.28 10544850.94 USD THO Dec/22 Brazil 8216881.95 8541338.47 USD THO Dec/22
Yes China imports a lot of electronics / semi-conductor stuff from Taiwan, as does the rest of the world. Although IIRC China's exports to Taiwan aren't that big. But still ~50% of China's export goes to western aligned nations, if not more.
Risking all that in a trade war, let alone hot war, is not small change.Is China's internal economy strong enough to come out such a conflict, assuming it wins, anything other then a pyrrhic victor?
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Regarding the rumors about increased airstrikes, Russia does seem to be increasing it's tests of AD recently. At least we saw the balloons above Kiev, but that could also just be a recently inspired idea.
Today I read that Russia fired missiles during the dark hours of the night for the first time in a long while. That could also point to they're testing out the waters regarding Ukraines AD capabilities.
Theorizing, if the coming attack is supposed to be the last large operational level attack they are capable of in order to achieve an acceptable status quo for Russia, that might mean they are willing to take extra casualties with their planes compared to the usual stuff. What is a last ditch effort without fully committing?
It could be time for the airforce to show color and solidarity in taking heavy casualties. I mean what is 6% for Russian standards? That means they haven't tried hard enough ;-). -
On 2/7/2023 at 2:06 PM, Falaise said:
Me, I managed to crush the bad guys !!!
nice timing
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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
What Europeans have to figure out is that their strength is a combination of many nations' abilities, not any one of them. This has been the strength of the United States, where we have a sense that the common good is only possible by combining what all US states have to offer. New England and Texas might have their opinions of each other that aren't always positive, but sensible people understand that they need each other as well as the rest of the country. I mean, where would we New Englanders get good hot sauce? And I really think Texans would prefer maple syrup on their pancakes than hot sauce
Steve
Exactly, just like different people need to learn to work together. Some people get anxiety to do things they have never done before, but help them once and they will be happy to do it a million times. Other people love trying out new things but get tired of it after doing it a couple of times. Accepting those differences is a good start.
Perhaps not the best analogy, but it has some resemblance to some of our European 'issues'. -
Some proof that this doesn't only feature in CM
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16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
That was an interesting read, thanks.
What I got from this is that there's two opinions out there. The first is that Russia will continue to do what it has done simply because it isn't capable of doing more. The second is that Russia has been harboring resources in order to save up for a "Bodenplatte" offensive where everything takes to the skies at once in support of a coordinated ground offensive.
I don't have an opinion as to what the Russians are planning on doing, but it would be new for them to engage in a large scale, high tempo use of air power. It is extremely risky and, so far, they have been very risk adverse with aircraft. For good reasons, too.
Aircraft are expensive and time consuming to replace. They are also one of the only tools Russia retains to deter NATO and other adversaries (or so they think, anyway!). Each aircraft lost not only weakens what little deterrence they have left, but also gives Russia more bad PR.
If they put 100 platforms into the air at once, just think of how many might get downed. Even 5 would be pretty horrible from a PR standpoint, but what if they lost 20 or 30? It's theoretically possible that losses could be that high. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
The other thing to wonder about is if the Russians think this sort of risk has the possibility of offering a decent reward. If I were them I'd doubt it. Russia's activities with air so far have not provided any signs that they are able to significantly impact Ukrainian ground forces' ability to fight. Which means Russia would be more-or-less giving Ukraine all the opportunities to come out ahead.
My vote is they do "more of the same" vs. big air offensive. That said, I wouldn't be too surprised to be wrong due to me underestimating how desperate Russia is at this point.
Steve
My view it's a bit of a double edged sword. If Russia goes for a massive air operation over Ukraine AD, there might be many (civilian) casualties and destruction. At the same time I'd too expect a large number of those airframes to get shot down, which would indeed be a big defeat for Russia, especially internally and for morale I guess. And would make it a one time effort.
I'd almost feel that I hope they try something like that (and see how it fails utterly), but the saying is be careful what you wish for.
Are the Patriot systems already operational? I haven't seen anything about that.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is the same as it is in the US. For those who do not live here, it is easy to not see how geographically divided the United States is. Not only regions, but areas within. This has always been the case, but it's certainly become more noticeable since the Internet came about.
Yet at the personal level, good people get along with other good people no matter where they come from. Fortunately there are plenty of good people.
Steve
Indeed I have met plenty from all over the world :).
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56 minutes ago, keas66 said:
Dear me - all this squabbling between members from different European Counties really highlights the potentially fragmented nature of the European Structure . You guys sound like you really are only a few steps away from splitting asunder if push came to shove . So much for European Unity ? . I hope at the Political level at least there is a little more consensus .
The funny thing is that the squabbling is mostly of political nature. When you travel/meet (reasonable) people in real life there is little difference. at least in my experience.
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Good to see you around!
I should also have all the old content on my home PC, but seems you have everything already.
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1 hour ago, Zeleban said:
Thanks for the kind words about beggars. it's so nice to feel like a beggar in a destroyed country under rocket attacks, and you reminded me of this in such a timely manner.
I can say on behalf of the Ukrainians here we dream that you stop this whole farce called support for Ukraine. At least then we would clearly understand what we can count on in the fight against Russia. All your support is nothing more than a mockery.
And one last thing for you personally buddy - ИДИ НА ХУЙ
Don't forget you are using google translate. He didn't call you a beggar, he used a saying (прислів'я).
And yes people here understand that Ukrainians are now in a difficult place. But we can't fully imagine it because we aren't experiencing it. At the same time we also still have our lives with the normal problems, small compared to Ukraine but that doesn't make them smaller for us.Anyway in my opinion there is too much politics and stirup by media (крамола) going around. If three months ago it would be known that Germany would allow all tank transfer to Ukraine and deliver 14 Leo2A6 end of March, it would be good news.
From my point of view the support is not 'mockery'. Inflation 20% is not mockery, gas price going through roof is not mockery. One of my friend company was on point of bankruptcy because of the gas price. Compared to Ukraine it is small problem. But not for him, he has everything in it and depend on it to eat with wife and two children. At that time he think same about Ukraine as your last 3 words.
Back to support, Germany is setting up a factory for production of Gepard ammunition. A vehicle they don't have in service anymore. Is it *all* you need? No, but it is something.Of course if you are under daily attacks, nothing can come fast enough. And yes if there would be rocket falling here also, things would go faster probably. But they aren't falling here.
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3 hours ago, JonS said:
"When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do?"
"Why, I dig in and read nonsense from questionable sources, of course!"
"Bill Gates (...), don't you know?"
Anyway they really made a mess of that here as in scientifically debating the facts but still go for the masks policy. I can't remember it exactly but even after the decision to go for the masks 'our Fauci' persisted the decision was motivated politically rather than on medical facts. Found it (translates fine should you care to read it):
https://nos.nl/artikel/2350709-van-dissel-blijft-erbij-gewone-mondkapjes-hebben-weinig-effect
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LoL the tank saga continues just now:
Soon after post is a reply from our MoD saying it's incorrect.
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10 minutes ago, jheinrichk said:
i guess i was trying to skip Bradley rounds off the terrain so they'd blow up further back where i had no LOS
I think you actually succeeded in that with 1 round against a BMP-2, I was like how he got hit. But being 25mm HE-I it just degraded the radio a bit.
12 minutes ago, jheinrichk said:this scenario is very difficult as red, i really could have used some atgm team dismounts. the tracked vehicles that have atgm are spotted before they can let off a missile
Agreed it's quite a challenge.
I was thinking that if Red could get the heavy artillery a bit more early, so that it is falling while the FSE arrives, could be helpful to keep momentum and prevent BLUE being able to react to much to the REDs deployment of the FSE.Some ATGMs could indeed help with making sure BLUE doesn't get wild idea's, like you with the flank. If I hadn't chosen to move there as well, you might have been able to flank my CRP and ambush the bridge / ford which the FSE needs to cross.
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I read today Ukraine get it's first support from an international fund for Ukraine. That seems like the way to go for me, no more measuring who has the largest 'support stick' plus Ukraine can decide themselves what to buy with it. At least that's how I understand it.
"First military aid to Ukraine from international fund
For the first time, Ukraine will receive support from a new fund for military equipment. The fund, which was set up at the end of last year, is a British initiative. The Netherlands is one of the participating countries and has invested 100 million euros in the fund. The equipment is purchased directly from the industry.Minister Ollongren announced in Brussels that Ukraine will soon have access to new ammunition, spare parts and air defense systems. "As fighting intensifies and Ukraine prepares for a new offensive, speed of deliveries is literally vital," the minister said.
According to Ollongren, by joining forces with other countries and with the industry, Ukraine can be supported more and faster."
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5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
With the next update we need the CV90 in the game. Lovely IFV.
Another 50? Or is this the 'old' news?
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4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Lenin never showed any interest in philosophy. All his works concerned political economy. What ideas of Lenin do you like in this area? seizure of private property? food distribution? transferring power to the poorest sections of the population?
Without every having lived in a communist country (and no desire to do), the basic point is quite understandable. Why are the 'workers' slaving away 12hours a day without offdays for a small wage that allows their families to eat while the factory owner and his family become filthy rich? If that imbalance is too large, some day people will revolt. Now that's probably way too oversimplified but that's how I look at it more or less.
But things don't have to be black or white. Communism in practice was never like the theory. There was still an elite, the workers still got ****.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
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