sburke

wow. awfully optimistic for a country that ranked below Italy in GDP. Russia has been burning through everything it can to pay for this war. Every economic estimate I have seen including that from Russia's own finance ministry has been more the "oh man are we fked" spectrum.

South Africa’s stance on Russia puzzles many. Could a mine in the desert hold answers? (yahoo.com) To many observers, South Africa’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine is puzzling. While the country professes to be “non-aligned,” Western diplomats and policy experts point to a series of actions that they say proves otherwise. Their list is long: South Africa abstaining from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations; hosting war games with the Russian Navy; repeatedly, and publicly, criticizing the United States; and even, allegedly loading weapons and ammunition onto a sanctioned Russian cargo ship. This week, while many African leaders stay away, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is attending a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg along with key ministers. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa has historic ties to the former Soviet Union, but that ideological legacy can generally only go so far. Usually, money talks. And the United States’ and European Union’s trade and aid relationship with South Africa vastly outstrips the Russian Federation’s relatively meager contribution. So, why is South Africa putting this important relationship at risk? Non-profit investigators at the AmaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism and anti-corruption activists are looking for answers in an unusual place: the Kalahari Desert.

Putin says Russia withdrew army from Kyiv because it was "asked" (yahoo.com)

what? this level of pessimism isn't warranted yet. in fact most signs are pointing to this war becoming more and more a problem for the russian state. Patience.

Maybe we just try and capture the ones China keeps floating by and giving those to the UA.

2nd high-profile Russian businessman dies in the space of 48 hours as tech tycoon found dead from 'medical gas,' report says (yahoo.com)

umm no it isn't. not even close. c'mon man seriously you are comparing a building door in a computer game that might be a 1 meter elevation difference issue on a 2000x2000 meter map to failing brakes on a car? Look I get that in the 1500/1600s you didn't have as much urban landscapes (or cars), but they really are more time consuming from a construction perspective. seriously though, when was the last time you created a map on that size to share with the community? Would you be happier if scenario designers decided to just forgo doing any scenario that needed a map that required much effort? The designers aren't paid in case you didn't know.

I don't consider it offensive so much as I am missing a portion of the Russian community looking for such an option. Personally, I'd love to see some portion of the Russian community looking to be a part of the international community. I just haven't seen it yet, at least not on terms of accepting genocide.

then you need to tell me something new to me as I have done several and it takes a freakin long time, so perhaps you can show me the one you have done and the process you have done to correct them? My examples are several for CMFB, a few for CMBN and an expansion for Venafro (CMFI) which was a relatively fictional flat map. Saying "proofreading and checking houses does not take a long time" means squat to me unless I see the results of work you have done that are comparable. My experience is it takes freakin long time. Not trying to be argumentative, but I have found the CM map maker to be hard to work with to adjust for stuff like this.

I am guessing you haven't done a large map as I have done several large master maps for CMBN and CMFB and your technique absolutely does not work. In fact, I have no idea why you would even think it would work. When exactly is that you did a map on this scale?

you do realize the sheer scale of that posted map and the number of buildings right? it is comments like this that make me reticent to provide any material I work on to the community.

exactly. The threat from Ukraine wasn't NATO. It was a country developing a democracy and trying to tackle existing corruption that had a strong potential influence on Russia. For Putin it is also an ideological thing of wanting to restore the USSR and Russia's imperial dreams.

Stock up on can openers

an improvement but still sooo 4 years ago. You must be a reader. Looking at your reading material makes me thirsty. Fine I'll go read it. Gotta have something to do in retirement.

show off, that is sooo 7 years ago

I think "combined arms" has just become a buzz word(s). The use of multiple types of weapons (or branches of armed forces if you will) that have different strengths in conjunction to achieve a desired result is as old as warfare. "hey grog, you take the little guys and throw rocks at the Neanderthals while lunk and the rest of us big guys attack with clubs". The problem is defining what are those 'arms". We are used to thinking, tanks, infantry, artillery and aircraft. Time to rewrite the definition of arms in "combined arms".

Trying to look out just maybe a decade and the question of what conflicts we can expect is a guaranteed migraine, however there are some things we can see right now that are sure bets to get worse. Water, food and migrations away from places that are unable to sustain human existence are the projections we can expect. That in turn sets expectations on the potential adversaries and types of conflicts. I don't know that we will see another war like this current conflict. However unless we can find some global agreement on how to face this future, it is going to be freakin chaotic as hell.

I think you are reacting in a very one sided way. An army that starts refusing orders undermines the authority of the state. That army doesn't function independent of the state apparatus. It doesn't mobilize troops, it doesn't make economic decisions, it doesn't drive the overall political process nor negotiate with the few allies Russia has. It undermines all that by making the state appear to not have control and therefore authority. Think Xi wants to be in bed with a guy whose own army is in revolt? Who decides who in the army gets resources? Who decides that X artillery brigade supports which corps? Who decides what aviation resources support which sector of the front? Chaos absolutely serves the interest of the UA. With confusion as to who is in charge, the ability to respond to UA advances declines. The RA isn't suddenly going to start fighting smarter, it is simply going to fight even less coordinated than it does now.

That would in turn undermine the whole defense of a "western order" and reward Russia for the war. On top of that Ukraine has shown no interest in giving up a position of full restoration of the national integrity of Ukraine. NATO membership isn't really relevant and there in no telling how long and convoluted that process might become. As it stands Ukraine is being backed by almost the full arsenal of NATO so there isn't much incentive to even consider a compromise especially considering Russia's stated positions. Russia needs to be clearly seen as having lost this war after all the sacrifice Ukraine has given. Short of that Russia will continue some form of aggression to continue to destabilize things. That in turn would also hold up membership. This isn't about Donetsk, but rather the example the Ukrainian people have set. That is the threat Ukraine represents.

personally I think JonS little diddy was better put, but I couldn't resist throwing in a shout out for the Saxons.

One thing I didn't note, but should have about rainy season. As the UA continues to punish Russian supply lines, rainy season will compound those affects as Russia relies more and more on long distance truck hauling versus RR and obviously the heavier stuff is the worse the impact- i.e artillery shells. Regarding analogies. I don't think it is helpful to try and compare to prior military campaigns. They rely too much on the technology and political constraints of the time. We are in a whole new ballgame and preconceptions based on historical situations that aren't really comparable leads to incorrect expectations. I don't expect we will see a "breakout" campaign on the order of COBRA for example. Honestly not sure which will occur first, the collapse of the political or military will in Russia.

Couple things 1. Russian trying to restore manpower is fraught with problems none of which will improve based on weather 2. Not sure how much rainy season really matters if you aren't doing a mechanized push requiring extending supply lines. UA could continue its present strategy regardless of weather. 3. So far I've seen no sign of UA committing the reserves it has built up anywhere so I can't say that Russian attempting to force UA to divert resources is having any impact. In fact going on the offensive only makes it easier for UA to kill Russians. Net result. It doesn't appear that Russia has come up with anything new in its bag of stupid tricks and UA continues to erode their C&C as well as artillery park. Patience.

with their army at full strength and the UA scrambling they couldn't take Kiev so yeah I am willing to go out on a limb here and say there isn't much of a northern threat.

gonna party like its 1949!...... nah just doesn't have the same ring to it.

and here I was wondering if he just had a thing for not mentioning the saxons.