dan/california

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-13-2023 ISW has a TON of detail on the firing of General Popov, and how it ties into the broader post Wagner reshuffle.

But the way to get there isn't a bunch of garage work shops. It is to find some kind of mid grade sheet metal plant in Eastern Europe somewhere and get a real production line going, start turning out tens of the per hour, more even. It could become the Sten Gun of this war. Just good enough, and huge quantities. Would a muffler plant be ideal? The tolerances just good enough?

It is interesting that they discuss the morale effects of how loud it is.

Going to quote myself just this once, getting conquered by the Russians is he!! on earth. That is why the Eastern European countries the have had the experience send arms to Ukraine in quantities that, by percentage of GDP, dwarf what everyone else is doing, they have been there. They still can't believe they got out, and they aren't going back.

Prig offered more war, done better, at least publicly. General Popov seems to losing his stomach for the whole thing, at very least hope for successful conclusion. I am still waiting for the Coup leader that offers "peace, land, and bread". That guy might start an avalanche that carries all the way to Kremlin.

So the commander of the 58th CAA wishes he had joined Prigozhin's march on Moscow, and the assistant commander is spread all over what use to be a very nice Black Sea Hotel in pieces parts. Unless the fix is already in I am guessing Ukraine is about to push a little bit. By the fix I mean the surrender or withdrawal of the entire 58th CAA...

So will this result in the war being prosecuted with more energy and effectiveness? Or the first negotiating offers that have some vague connection to reality.

I have said for quite some time that all the West wanted to was ignore Russia, and that Russia will regret making that impossible.

And how many Confederate Generals, or members of the South's government were hung, and/or tortured to death after the war? The slaves were "freed" and within twenty years you would have been hard pressed to tell that the South had lost the war walking down the street in small town Georgia. The legalisms of getting the cotton picked changed, the de facto business of getting it done changed very little. It took us another hundred years, and a large boost from ever more mechanized agriculture to sort it out for real. If the South had won there would have been three governments in North America instead of two. I think the vast weight of probability is that this would have made the last ~170 years much worse for almost everyone. At the same time the South never had the slightest intention to occupy the North, their war aims were entirely focused on succession not conquest. Russia had a written plan to kill the entire upper layer of Ukrainian society, and subject the rest to something at least as bad as what China has done in Xinjiang. I argue that these two situations are not actually comparable. indeed the fact the they are not comparable is why the Confederacy was able to accept defeat, however grudgingly. The weird echo of the Civil War in our current politics is a whole different discussion that Steve probably doesn't want us to have on this thread.

Also interesting.

Dmitri is on fire today, as is The Pickle.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000620764233 This is an excellent podcast about how countries and militaries seize the opportunities presented by technological change and strategic circumstances, or don't. He discusses some the trends revealed by the Ukraine war at some length. The person interviewed wrote the book below. He is unimpressed with the adaptions the U.S. is making to face China.

The U.S. army was in WW2 expanded ~200,000 in 1938, to a couple of million in 1945. This is not a new problem, just a bleeping unpleasant one. You have to ruthlessly promote the good officers, and fire the bad ones. Again we just don't have enough information to judge the performance of Ukrainian units. Is the commander of the 47th lousy, or was he given an impossible job? Was he given that impossible job for reasons that make sense in the larger picture? The only thing we know for sure is that Ukraine doesn't have the air force to do this offensive the way the U.S. would. they doing a different and sadly more expensive one, that doesn't mean it won't work. And not everyone gets to fight there wars with oceans for moats, unfortunately. It could be argued that the U.S. has NEVER fought a war that had the stakes this one has for Ukraine.

Twitter seems to have suddenly purged the majority of the accounts I use to try and keep track of the war. Is anybody else having this issue? Edit:Or maybe they are finally having a general meltdown. I have a windows laptop that isn't currently being used. I have been pondering setting it up just to use for telegram for a while. Anybody have any recommendations on how to translate telegram posts more or less wholesale?

Don't necessarily disagree with anything you just said, But the ages of the officers are pretty standard for a formation formed in wartime conditions, and a high attrition environment. Now is the guy in charge of the 47th the right twenty eight year old? I have no idea.

I will note he didn't specify whether that would be in the Donbas.... or Moscow. How the Russian system can stagger on without either Shoigu and Gerasimov, or Prigohzin going out a window is beyond me.

I suspect his great grandchildren will hate Russians with a burning passion.

Would this qualify as chemical warfare?

More is definitely better, but I suspect the Chinese make ship killing missiles rather faster than this. Britain actually, finally, putting out a contract to install a new line and increase 155 artillery production by a factor of eight. If they had done this a year ago they might have a leg to stand on regarding objecting DPICM to Ukraine. I mean we have only been having the problem since WW1. And yet every time, in the first week of the war, shell/munition usage numbers go up the chain to higher command. Every time Pentagon/MOD people faint with shock.

I suspect something that looks quite a bit like this will be a big part of de-mining Ukraine after the shooting stops.

Reality always seems to dawn when about 75% of the unit is KIA...

I suspect that meeting will happen in the Hague. The new regime in will Russia decide that between tens of billions in sanctions relief, and Putin's comfortable retirement, that they can't afford to like him that much.

We are talking way too much about a DPICM decision that has already been made, and not nearly enough about the fact we don't have the faintest idea who is actually in charge in Russia, or what their long term plans is. Erdogan is playing the hardest of hardball over Swedish membership in NATO. Even as it provides something close to maximalist support for Ukraine. The diplomatic complications are simply mind boggling.