dan/california

Yeah but sooner or later a government starts a campaign to make EVERYTHING the evil foreigners fault, and then you have to fight, or fold.

it wouldn't be an intolerable loss rate, if the Russian army was past Paris and about to reach the English Channel. Since they are barely ~50 miles into Ukraine, and either barely holding that, or actively losing what few gains they have, utterly awful and getting worse is the kindest description I can come up with.

"and China is now the top creditor of the global South. I can see how he could count on shifting to new markets." They won't get paid either, no one ever has. Lending money to poor countries is either charity or insanity. They simply don't have the economic resilience to survive shocks like... The Ukraine War. Indeed if a lot of people who owe China money get crushed by the current oil/food/commodity shock It will be one more thing for Xi to be peeved at Putin over. For that matter China imports oil, and grain, obviously they can withstand it, but again, another irritant.

Even more to the point in terms of Putin's errors, he has made utterly clear the military and police forces that keep him in power that he considers their lives to be expendable poker chips that he can lose for his own amusement. That won't matter at all, until it matters a very great deal.

This is funny!

You are of course correct in all the technical details. But I think you are REALLY underestimating both the Russians ability to be utterly pigheaded in the dumbest possible way, and how much the Russia care about their troops. For pigheaded stupidity, i would cite everything in Ukraine, for the concern the Russian army has shown for keeping their soldiers alive, well ,everything in Ukraine. They would not have pulled these guys out for a little unexplainable sun burn, I would bet a LOT of money they had florid severe symptoms. I am mildly surprised they didn't just write them up as KIA to avoid the embarrassment.

At least ~50 guys per bus, yes? And with a VERY poor prognosis? From sheer ignorance, and a higher command that just doesn't give a bleep.

%%&^$&$**)&%$$&* **^*^&%$$**((*^ )(*^&%*&%&%% (&^%(*()(*&^^ (^^%$%^&^ (*^^^*( ((^^(%%&*((%#@@% The forum may have to revisit the profanity rules, because there is no other way to discuss some aspects Putler's rolling atrocity.

Are the Ukrainians interior lines and general logistics flexibility good enough for them to really be able to concentrate their artillery on a single axis of attack to achieve true superiority in support fires in a chosen spot?

Could the Ukrainians blow it before the the Russians get back over it? It would utterly trap anybody on the western side.

Russia loves to stir up trouble across its borders, so Ukraine should be doing all kinds of thing to stir up trouble in Belarus. Including taking the Belorussian volunteers and having them conduct partisan attacks on Belorussian soil and blame the Belorussian military for it. Or just send the volunteers over to start up armed resistance on behalf of Belorussians. Belarus rebelling is not necessary for the Ukrainians to win, but a successful rebellion in Belarus makes this a 100% total loss for Putin. It would be an unspinnable, unfixable, epic disaster. Even an unsuccessful rebellion in Belarus Probably turns every Russian soldier on the west side of Kyiv into a POW. Absolutely anything and everything should be pursued to make this happen.

ammo is harder to sell than most things I would think. Unless of course they were selling to the Ukrainians.

Bleep me he is young, or at least he was month ago...

My quick count is approximately fifty CONFIRMED Russian vehicle losses. So they are continuing to lose about a BTG per DAY. They can't do that indefinitely, or even for vey long.

My read, worth what you are paying for it, is that they would cut off Crimea at the most militarily convenient point and push on towards Mariupol. Very strong political/morale pressure to relieve Mariupol if they possibly can. But to do either of those things they have to take Kherson back, which is not trivial, and apparently the Russians have rigged the main bridge at Kherson to blow, so they will have real logistics headache to advance past that point. The Russian air force seems to have an easier time operating around Crimea/Mariupol area as well, which makes offense much harder for the Ukrainians. My vague impression is that theRussians have really good SAM/radar coverage from Crimea, and the southern reaches of the bit of Ukraine they have had since 2014. There may be advantages for the Russian planes to come in from over the Black Sea. They would only have a brief overland exposure to shorter range Ukrainian SAMS.

And of course China is still in the backfield looking for its moment... Convincing the Chinese that this ISN"T the moment to take Taiwan is priority #1. I am repeating myself, but ANY amount of money and effort to convince the Chinese that Taiwan isn't worth trying will be cheaper that rebuilding the wreckage of more or less everything if the DO try it. That island literally needs to sink a foot or two with the weight of missiles, drones, and other nastiness waiting to greet a Chinese attack. If you made king for a day I would Put a Marine division on Taiwan permanently. The other obvious place for the Chinese to look adventurous is the Russian far east which has just been denuded of troops that it turns out were not very good anyway. It is worth repeating that the population of the Russian far east is tiny, and only maintained by massive subsidies from Moscow. Moscow is goingto short on subsidies for much of anything for the next little while. Maybe Xi will do something out of left field, like offering to BUY a big chunk of it, with an unspoken threat of or else. Just not bailing them out financially is no small threat at this point The Russians sold Alaska after all during a previous bankruptcy.

And you honestly don't know if it is vodka induced idiocy from the Russians, or Ukrainian SOF/intelligence feeling it is great day to make a point.

All you need to know about Ukraine's military situation is that they have the time and resources to train these guys up properly before committing them to the fight. Compare that to the LPDR guys getting shoved in a truck and probably not even handed a rifle until they got to the front.

They were making them export to the Arab world. The Arabs' order is going to be late. Very, very late.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinese-whispers/id1522448504?i=1000554753155 About Taiwanese views on Ukraine, and Taiwanese security.

I think they have some difficulty adjusting to opposition that can shoot back.

Most of them will have spent a decade with their vodka bottle though. Unless seeing combat in the Russian army makes you LESS likely to drink than the average Russian. I don't find that likely. Probably an even more jaundiced view of Russian officers, too.

Almost certain now that video is Russian Propaganda. And if you were going to shoot them and dump the bodies wouldn't you do it in ditch full of rotting sewage somewhere? Mind I think every Russian in Ukraine deserves to die burning, but encouraging surrenders is the fastest way to win the war.

Indeed it artfully danced thru the landmines.

Cn we get more likes please, it is enegetic to quote someone when all I want to do is point out how much I agree with them.