dan/california

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-new-russian-offensive-is-intended-to-project-power-it-cannot-sustain/ Author has been reading the the thread.

I wold argue that is a very special case where GDP was rising rapidly as Japan industrialized. Peoples living standards were rising more slowly, as opposed to being cut savagely. I would argue that makes a large difference.

Significant?

Ever more convinced that Russia really has stripped the rest of the front for the battle in the Donbas salient.

To be fair, I am sure some of those ships are actually turning on radars for the first time in decades. They might even learn to read the displays.

The Ukrainians need fire power now, today, anyway they can get it. Logistically this makes some sense, it is a civilian vehicle that any number of people know how to fix. My guess is that they have more of these rockets than they have airframes to deliver them. My primary question can they aim it to at least the nearest square mile. That has a LARGE influence on it utility. And even then the point the nose up, fire, and pray method pilots on both sides are using borders on just silly. You can probably aim this thing a whole lot better using the compass and angles measurement built into your i-phone. Presumably someone at least guessed at a firing table from the spec sheet on the rocket. Cold, cruel math of war, getting pick up trucks shot up delivering not very accurate rocket fire makes more sense than getting helicopters shot down doing the same thing, and uses less gas. The same basic thing using the laser guided 70 mm rockets the U.S. is maybe sending might make a LOT of sense. The Russians' first five picks for targets already seems to include schools, hospitals, theaters with children written all over them, and school buses. I literally don't see what difference it would make. The Ukrainians already seem to have a pretty good control system for distributed fires. You just need the right secure radio for each truck or battery. Yes that might cost as much as everything else put together, but needs must...

Does the TAC AI know that? I mean sometimes they spot the ATGM team and shoot back, and sometimes they don't? Honest question on game mechanics

He is holding strong with the theory that the Russians are out of tanks, and AFVs to lose. I guess they could also/instead be out of people to do suicidal things in them, but that amounts to the same thing. The Russian ability to conduct large scale offensive action is pretty much used up.

And a map finally!

Stuffing all this in one post, because it all seems to point to the same thing. The Russians are having a comprehensively bad day.

LOOOOOONG Range.

100% agree, but only if they can do it at acceptable risk.

The Ukrainians have better uses for every last rocket than randomly shelling Donetsk. Absolutely anywhere in the Russian bulge around Popsana comes immediately to mind. There would be at least a hundred other targets in front of this one, even if it wasn't idiotic from propaganda standpoint. I would bet damned near anything this is the Russians trying to gin up one last gasp of opposition to giving the Ukrainians HIMARS/M270. Edit, And I would be shocked if the Pentagon can't tell exactly where the rockets came from in three redundant ways.

Liked this video, too.

Just found this guy, and the detail on this map is off the charts, does anybody have an opinion if it has any bearing on reality? Because my guess is that the Russian commander is not working with a picture this good. Unless he is using this map, too.

There are only two ways to save that grain, and sadly neither of them is very likely. Either Ukraine just completely surrenders. Or NATO realizes that the world food situation truly critical, and tells Russia that Odessa is open and ANY attempt to interfere will result in overwhelming consequences. The first case of interference results in the complete obliteration of the Black Sea Fleet. The second case of interference results in the complete obliteration of all even vaguely military infrastructure in Crimea, starting with the Port of Sebastopol. The third attempt to interfere Nato simply joins the war in Ukraine with maximum violence. Neither of these is likely, so the third world is going to have a bad couple of years.

Full agreement with team Steve that the Russians are just out of gas, and men, and morale. Interesting graph, and an even more interesting interpretation.

Given that the Ukr feel confident pushing more forces into Severodonetsk, i really wonder if there is a large hammer ready to fall on the Popsana salient.

Neatly combining the themes of of how we know what we know, and the situation in Severodonetsk, the best open source satellite intelligence on the Ukraine war is a NASA satellite for monitoring fires.

The sources you have, and the sources you can admit to having are not always the same. Edit- Who knows who Steve will admit to knowing someday...?

Well said!

The Swiss and the Germans are in a competition to be the least helpful. Above is a German aid delivery, the Swiss are still evaluating if the snail is slow enough.

It has been combined and upscaled, but neither side can really put the package complete package together and keep it that way. In particular we seem to have overlapping incomplete ISR bubbles from each side more than we we have an actual clash of bubbles leading to ISR and fires superiority for one side of the other. The Ukrainians can't take full advantage of their superior information flows because the just don't have the weight of fire to take advantage. Beyond 155 range their options have been extremely limited so far. And their air forces sole job is to keep enough airframes operational to present a threat in being to Russian air operations The Russians seem to have far less information, and a ridiculously slow and rigid system for taking advantage of the information they do have. That is not the least of the reasons why they decided to restrict their entire offensive effort to a five mile wide front in a zone with limited maneuver options. It appears to be at least possible that they STILL got out maneuvered if the latest reporting fro Sverodontesk is true. They appear to have little to no real time targeting past say a 100 miles in depth, if that. And to add insult to injury their PGMs don't seem to be very precise, or very reliable. Their air operations have been an embarrassment at best. We haven't seen anything like this https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/28-drone-swarm-just-led-the-way-for-a-simulated-air-assault-mission/ar-AAXFZ1t or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorgon_Stare Certainly not this https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/05/17/stryker-laser-mortars-drones/ Never mind the USAF leading a thousand sortie opening night with a highly classified number of drones, followed 200 cruise missiles that actually hit what they are aimed at. Or the Chinese equivalent in SRBMs, although the later has never been tested in actual combat. We get flashes of how it should all work, and at very high volume, but for very different reasons neither side can keep the symphony going.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3499316-ukraine-army-retakes-20-of-sievierodonetsk-controls-half-of-city-haidai.html Ukr has made some level of counterattack in Sievierdontesk. I suspect the The Russian Infantry will even less enthusiatic about taking the place twice. Edit: cross posted with The_Monkey_King, who did a much better job.

There are also a lot of phone calls about the DPLR guys having their delusions beaten out of them with a hammer. The "please lord Tsar we have been mistreated videos" from whole units being another example. Ukraine needs to figure out the right way to make those poor bleeped fools a better offer. It really shouldn't be hard, considering the Russians seem to be offering death now, or death in just a little while. A few well timed surrenders would wreck the Russian position pretty thoroughly.