dan/california

My last understanding is that Kyselivka was the linchpin of the Russian defenses around Kherson. With the Himars strike on the S300 in the Kherson vicinity the advancing AFU troops might even have a semblance of air cover.

100 was never enough to be decisive. 300 would do it, combined with the ~100 NATO SPGs of various types. The Russian response to the HIMARS campaign against their logistics seems to be firing every gun they have to prove they still can. Either they think they can still get resupplied, or someone in the Russian command structure has realized that intentionally running out of ammo is an excuse to pack up and go home. Which might actually be rational response to Putin's determination to push the Russian army all the way to 1917 levels of complete failure. I still think the way the Russians are fighting now has as much to do with the post war/post Putin blame game as any rational military strategy.

Always keep in mind that Russia east of the Urals is almost depopulated.There are several Chinese cities in Manchuria you have never heard of that have more people than the easternmost third of Russia. If things crack up in Moscow the only question is how quickly the Chinese move in.

I have stated a number of times I think the best scenario for Ukraine is the 2/24 borders with EU and NATO membership. It would just be a much easier country to run than if it got the 2014 borders that include a lot of unhappy Russian sympathizers. But the fundamental problem is that the Russian leadership is trying irrationally hard to get out this with something they can sell as a win, and they simply don't have the military power to achieve that. One of the most obvious consequences of this is that they are trying get every single male of even vaguely military age in the LPR/DPR killed in suicidal frontal attacks, and even more suicidal recon by death operations. This is opening up a possibility of Ukraine reconquering them at acceptable losses that just wasn't there before. I just don't see how you get the Russians to stop this until they run out of the bodies. The genocidally barbaric behavior of the entire Russian military just makes it a really hard sell to the Ukrainians that they should be allowed to retreat in good order even if they had the sense to try and negotiate such a thing. Which they don't, or they would be trying to do it right now. Before ATACAMS or some other NATO system makes its way in country and makes their situation even less tenable. As you know far too well wars are easy to start and god awfully hard to end. All we can do is ride the tiger and hope for an opening to calm things down. Maybe we can arrange for the Ukrainians to take out the worst of their very justified need for justice/revenge on some unlucky piece of Wagner.

We have a lot. of leverage with the Ukrainians. The much bigger issue could be a three sided Russian civil war. Where none of the side involved will communicate with us, much less negotiate. Still, I don't think we can be afraid of winning. Ready to try and pick up the pieces would be good though.

Apparently he has NOT been forgiving and forgetting in retirement. Also a great cartoon. Edit, added the very important NOT... .

Out of likes, so i will post 100% agree. Not sure a country with as little a coastline as Poland needs a navy much beyond anti-ship missiles. Mind you I would have enough of those to sink the entire Russian navy two or three times.

That is SUBSTANTIAL. More than enough to take Minsk by yourselves.

What is the design of that all new Rheinmetal tank whose marketing video is making the rounds? It is the only clean sheet design in 30 years that has made it this close to production.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000569415733 A full hour long biography of Girkin and his relationship with Putin. worth your time.

Battery powered vehicles are going to/ are already infiltrating the battlefield from the bottom up, but if the batteries get good enough to run even a ten ton armored fighting vehicle, never mind a 70 ton Abrams we have already won this war and several others. Because if you can run an MBT on batteries the internal combustion engine is obsolete, and China is the only opponent of "The West" that doesn't go broke instantly as oil sales crater. Even more money needs to be thrown at this problem, but we are a couple of fundamental breakthroughs away, probably. An epic advance in superconductors, , super capacitors or both comes to mind..

No please don't. Butschi's opinion is nowhere close to the average. We more competent translations and interpretations, not less.

There will be an outstanding chance to sort it out at the end of the war. And no shortage whatever of proven veterans who deserve the jobs

Noted, i will unfollow them. Thanks as always Haiduk for helping us figure out what is actually going on.

Is this a desperate attempt to get some sort of counter-battery fire against HIMARS? Could the S300 radar get some semblance of a fix on the launcher?

Great Kamil thread. I mean they are all great, but this is one of his very best.

Oh My!

If the Russians tried to disclaim responsibility for idiots in with grads NATO would simply say fine, and start droning any grad system within 25 miles of the border. Kind of like what happened at that base in Syria after the Russian command in country said no those aren't our guys. There wasn't enough left to bury. If they do do claim them, well the Polish army will be in Minsk in a week. Given that the Russians have now had a REAL demonstration of what GMLRS can do it might be worth while to park 80% of the systems currently in Europe around Kaliningrad, just to encourage calm thinking on the Russians part.

Even if War Monitor is suffering from a small excess of enthusiasm the extent to which the Russian logistics system is going up in flames is magnificent to behold. I wonder if the Russians are capable of getting a clue and going home? Or if they need a few tens of thousands more casualties first.

That will kick the second Russian civil war off nicely...

If NASSM can't shoot down Orlan 30s with semblance of efficiency, we need to send them something that does. I don't care if the only ones in existence are five experimental models.The have biggest real test they are ever going to get is going on right now. i really think this might be the last key to let the AFU start rolling the Russians back wholesale.

Even with one arm you have more to give mother Russia. Are we sure this isn't Ukrainian propaganda? Because it seems designed to make nice Russian boys run the other way as fast as humanly possible. A speaker on another forum I follow had truly great idea. Canada needs to very quietly tell the German government that those turbines will move at the exact moment the first AFU brigade equipped with Leo2s and Marders goes into action. It might get the German government off the ball.

If this map is correct the AFU can range downtown Kherson with 777s and some of the longer ranged rounds.

Great, now get those guys clear. the place just a target!

Permit me a bit of COMPLETE speculation. No one in the Western world has fought a war anything like this since 1945. And in a lot of ways even the worst of WW2 wasn't this intense of the U.S.. The Colonel is watching people he trained a month ago die in significant numbers, he is training more units that he nows knows with brutal certainty will be committed to the same kind of combat. As outstanding as his military education and prior service has been, it just didn't prepare him for this. No one east of the Rhine has faced anything like this 1918, it has to be a terrible burden to be doing all he can and yet be unable to keep all the people he is training alive. he is more than allowed to have a bad attitude. He knows in his bones the price the Ukrainians are paying to boil the frog slowly. The Ukrainians keep going because the Russians have made it utterly clear that they can die in battle, or after the Russians have destroyed everything they hold dear and made them watch. The Colonel deserves our absolute respect for showing up and doing everything he can. He is more than forgiven for feeling less than cheerful about it. The Ukrainians deserve essentially unlimited and unconditional support for taking on this fight, and MAYBE, just MAYBE keeping the 21st century from going off the rails as badly as the 20th did. The very least the rest of us can do is annoy the BLEEP out of or elected representatives to send everything that can be sent as fast as the logistics channels can move it. Voting Scholz right out of the building would be an excellent place to start. Remember NATO can end this end in three days if it is willing to call the Russians bluff about starting WW3. My opinion is that it clearly IS a bluff. The Russians haven't doubled down and started shooting at Polish supply points after at least sixty thousand casualties and perhaps twice that, it isn't even clear that they know how many. Since most of the wars in history have started over one hundredth that level of provocation, it is pretty clear to me they don't want to start one. One guys opinion, thanks for reading it if you made it this far. WRITE YOUR CONGRESSPERSON/MP.