dan/california

It took a very great deal to convince the Japanese it is cheaper to buy Hawaii than conquer it, but they seem to have gotten the point.

See below I think the AFU are pushing very hard to actually put trenches right across the roads in question, and they have a LOT artillery aimed at that one road out. Unless I have missed something none of the units in the pocket are elite. My two cents is that less than 25% of what was in the pocket ~8 hours ago, it may be two slightly separated pockets btw, is going to get out in any militarily useful form. I think trapped ones will surrender almost immediatly when they realize they have seen their last supply truck. The AI will be referred to forever more as the "Russian officer in command".

I did just hear a credible verbal report, that the Russians have done something close this on the Northern side of the Kupiansk Salient on the south side of Oskil. The Russians are apparently throwing infantry at the Ukrainians virtually unsupported. These are some the better Ukrainian units and it is going about as well as you would expect.

From ISW " Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces have already committed mobilized men to Kharkiv Oblast who have since told the Ukrainian forces that they did not receive any training prior to their deployment around September 15.[7]" They are doing something with them to get at least small numbers of them captured. I would assume they were not all that lucky.

We should get back to socks, IFVs, and the encirclement of Lyman, if we can.

I think the obvious response to a single tactical nuke is to cruise missile (conventional, obviously) the two hundred most valuable Russian targets in Ukraine, AND sink the Black sea fleet. Among other things letting the Russians get away with it just throws nuclear nonproliferation in the trash. Japan, South Korea, and ten plus other countries would be nuclear powers in six months or a year, another twenty or thirty would be along as fast as they could. I don't. think that does much for civilization's long term odds, or even the medium term ones for that matter. This was brought up less than a week, and an approximate infinity of pages ago.

I realize that, but the theory that you will be VERY sorry, has kept the peace for ~80 years. It seems like a bad time to back away from it.

Never ceases to amaze me when people fall for FBI stings. I mean of course there is a real Russian agent on your porch asking you to betray your country, said no sane person ever.

It seems Rybar thinks the Russians REALLY need to counter attack down the road from Kremina to Troske. I suspect the AFU are arranging the warmest possible welcome. Up to and including having GMLRS ready to provide direct tactical support, which they don't do often. After the wonderful time Putin's excuse for an army has had in Kherson you would think they would know better than to make. stand with water at their backs, even partially.

Steve can you please release some details about the new game, so we can argue about those instead?

https://earth.google.com/web/search/Lyman,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine/@49.02443551,38.02019272,123.1323601a,8797.46910032d,35y,-0h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCQ5-vqoudEhAEeWbFoCCLUhAGar-BJq4DkNAIQHk7K0dUkJA https://earth.google.com/web/search/Lyman,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine/@49.02443551,38.02019272,123.13315172a,12889.85734665d,35y,0h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCQ5-vqoudEhAEeWbFoCCLUhAGar-BJq4DkNAIQHk7K0dUkJA Google earth has a couple of good pictures of the terrain around Torske these are from just a few kilometers to the east. The road the Russians need to take to get out, or too counterattack on.

It seems too late for that. The Ukrainians have already taken the more defensible ground. The Russian counter attack would either have to engage the Ukrainians in the forested are they just seized, or attack over open fields and down the road they are trying to open. If they were strong enough to do either of those things they should have done it yesterday, when their starting positions would have been much better. Now they will just get wrecked by Ukrainian artillery while the Ukrainians go to the tactical defense and just wreck them. I doubt the AFU are short of ATGMs at the pointy end of what is currently their major effort. Of course that is about how stupidly they fought the rest of the war, so sure, they will probably do it. Getting one of their last decent, by Russian standards of decent, units smashed would shorten the war.

And the BTUs under the frogs pot have been duly been increased by 1.5%....

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end I just read this excellent article that billindc recommended, everyone else should read it too.

She summed up so much more than just what she was specifically talking about there.

That is a real fight, bleep me. Would love to get more context on that one some day.

Everybody on this board, i think, understands that Putins second best option was to declare Kyiv had learned its lesson, and go home at the end of the first week in March. His best option was not to start the war. He didn't pick either of those choices, he has doubled down on losing hands steadily ever since. Galeev has been generally well received on this board by most people, most of the time. His analysis, and mine though that matters less, is that Putin isn't going to reverse course now. So is there a point where NATO needs to go from being entirely reactive, and try to gain the initiative? Or do we just keep hoping the air finally goes out of Putins balloon?

And if the Ukrainians can put that together, on a shoestring, in the middle of a shooting war it will pretty much be the standard going forward, if it isn't already. I suspect that company commander is going to be part of that staff college speaking tour.

Losing a war seems to be only thing actually, historically speaking. Unfortunately they always draw poor conclusions.

Yes, an EXCELLENT post.

It is also just a little bit rabid, and loose in the neighborhood. Perfect options seem lacking.

I realize that, but the the thing that has held the peace for eighty years is convincing the Russians they can't just wave their magical nuclear stick and conquer Europe one country at a time. One way or another we have to make it clear we still mean it.

This is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the state of Russias nuclear deterrent. FWIW

Then at some point he is going to have to get a very painful lesson, I am simply stating we might want do that on our timing, instead of his. Edit: We have been boiling this frog slowly for a long time, it might be time to blow the pot out of the building. There is an endless slow escalation with zero indication that Putin has the sense to quit, or that someone else in Russia has the sense to shoot him.

I meant if they really do want to lose a nuclear war.