dan/california

Rarely in human history has someone been quite that happy about low pressure tires... If he is very lucky he is just hurt enough to avoid deploying. At least the ammo is actually blanks, crossing that up in a vodka haze would be truly spectacular

Haven't had time to find it with my nonexistent Russian, but I want to compare the rebar details for the top of a column with that cracked one in the damage pics. It would be significant to find evidence that there is less rebar than the drawing calls for.

The first level of analysis is to assume whatever Russia says is a lie. They lie about stuff they don't even need to lie about. They lie about absolutely everything, apparently as a matter of policy to damage the very idea of the truth. So it is 100% they are lying about this.

Cleaning Russian intelligence services out the internet is going to take a decade, If we REALLY work at it. I am still pretty strongly of the opinion that extremely high tech ghillies suits are going to be the new gold standard. Especially as the Ukraine war motivates people to apply themselves to the smart, mobile, self laying minefields you have mentioned previously. I have this vision of them crawling out of the truck and emplacing/hiding themselves. You missed my sarcastic intent. I found the truck parts in those pictures profoundly unconvincing. I am 100% on team missile.

It is just an unbelievably crude brute force structure. I strongly suspect it is the most compromised major construction project in quite some time . An all metal structure over windy saltwater seems a little odd. I suspect they chose poorly on the fast, cheap, well triangle. Chose poorly for the linchpin of the biggest war in Europe in 80 years, anyway.

There was a tanker train on fire in the vicinity. A lot of scope for making a mess there.

I would love to know where that ditching operation is relative to this map.

Russia being ruzzia they would strip low priority areas bare to keep Moscow's lights on. That would give some already very unhappy places another thing to stew over. Saddam use to do that, some incredible percentage of the whole countries electrical output went to Baghdad. Everybody else got to sweat in the dark.

Those bit and piece parts of the truck suspension are the most convincing thing I have seen as far as it being a truck bomb. I do have a few questions. Are they visible in any of the earliest photos? Also is it just me or do some of those bits look like they were unbolted instead of ripped off? I would expect a great of deformation in the bolt holes of that hub on the bottom right, at the very least. Really none of it looks like it was explosively disassembled. If it was ground zero when the hammer of god paid a visit it wouldn't look like that, the axle itself would be bent when the bomb smashed the suspension down. They are also trying to sell me that the wheel came off with wrecking the lug nuts, the more I look the more it looks wrong. Just asking questions? Unlike a lot of things I pontificate on, broken heavy machinery is an area of real professional experience. Kind of like the stuck rusted out bolts, my god that brings back nightmares. So they are building this behind their current lines, creating a very limited number of places their forces can pass through to take up new positions. With the AFU having drones, Himars, and apparently mines that be delivered by HIMARS? I do hope we get video of how this brilliant plan works out.

All available indications are that winter trench warfare are going to result in MASSIVE casualties from trench foot, frostbite, and so on for the Russians. Give that sniper a medal! So the russians are finally paying attention In Northern Luhansk. We eagerly await the AFU revealing where they are NOT, paying attention.

About a minute in there is a shot of an engine block on a rebuild stand. Every bolt on it is rusted to the point of seizing, stripping, snapping. or the ever popular more than one. You can figure an an hour per bolt for a SKILLED person to sort that out.

They might as well add the SBU to the conference call...

Do we have any satellite photos of how extensive the new Russian defensive line is Luhansk? Is it even in Lukhansk? I can totally see them doing a random five kilometer section for propaganda purposes, and then getting back to the all important vodka bottle.

I am really starting to think that the superiority of the Ukrainian ISR/fires/ADA bubble is reaching the point where the Russians are going to start failing/collapsing at an exponential rate. Edit: And I don't think a belated attempt at fixed defenses solves that problem.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-ambassadors-annual-conference-2022-opening-speech-high-representative-josep-borrell_en Read it, read the whole thing, then ponder what I said a few posts ago about how it would be good to increase ammo production.

The blame game Prigozhin wants ti be able to look at the MOD and say "we TOOK our objective". It is all about the post Ukraine/post Putin power struggle, not least to be sure someone else gets the blame. I would think the defenses on the 2/24 lines to the east of Bakmuht would be almost impenetrable. But if they insist on getting ALL their infantry killed in more or less suicidal attacks anything is possible. This probably ISN'T possible, but punching thru the Russian lines between Donetsk and Luhansk, and then swinging south to Mariupol WOULD be a definitive war winning move, if they could hold it. it isn't like their are any men of fighting age left in the L/DPR to mount a hasty defense if they broke through the 2/24 trench lines.

The one thing it all points to is that the west needs to crank ammo production up to near wartime levels for the foreseeable future. From 5.56 to ATACMS and cruise missiles they need to pour concrete and order machinery to put out at least five times the current volume. Worst case scenario it is cheap insurance, and there will be enough ammo to REALLY train for a decade or two. There is a heck of an argument for increasing retention and recruiting bonuses, too.

Apparently at least one side is getting active again.

Just nationalize it, and then send him back to South Africa... I can think of 14 other ways the U.S. government can make him a lot less wealthy if it sets it mind to it. Cutting off the electric vehicle subsidy for any car costing more than forty grand comes immediately to mind. Can we charge him with a Logan act violation while we are at it?

For quite a while most of the more up to date news about front line developments was coming from Russian sources. They seem to have all gone quiet, like told to shut up gone quiet. Up to date front line updates from the The Ukr side have been thin for a while. Just may be a phase where boths sides are being less talkative. Anybody have a a recents firms map? Those have been the closest thing to ground truth for the whole war, albeit far from infallible. Apparently a wet day in Eastern Ukraine, the mud always gets a vote.

This is as close as I have seen to news about military developments. When I say military, I am excluding terror bombings and other atrocities, there is an unpleasant excess of those.

You are of course correct. And just attempting to pay attention would be a far better performance that the Russians put in in Kharkiv. The next question is can The Ukrainians find a another spot the Russians couldn't cover adequately, or do they have to do the next attack the hard way. Edit: The very best scenario for the next round would be a whole unit surrendering and letting the Ukrainians hit the ruzzian rear areas at a dead run. They seem to be working the angle as hard as they can with the surrender hotline and so on.

Musk's legal team was able to get in his office long enough to explain how large his exposure on this thing might be. That is my guess anyway. The other way to look at this, and this is PURE speculation on my part, Is that Musk is acting in coordination with the U.S. government, and is being used as a direct channel to Putin. I am quite sure that a more direct indication of Putin's mental state, and the ability to get some unfiltered communication through his bubble would be highly valued. I repeat, pure speculation

How much of the pro Russian faction is of Russian descent, more or less? I have vague recollection that a fair number of Volga Germans came back to Germany after WW2, and their loyalties uhm complicated? My working theory for a while now has been that almost everything ruzzia is doing in Ukraine is more about factional competition for advantage in the "After Putin" moment. More specifically there is a contest to blame the complete and epic failure in Ukraine on any faction but yours. I think Wagner's more or less suicidal obsession with taking Bakmuht is exhibit A, but there are a lot of others. Holding kherson until the army cracks somewhere else might be another. Clearly the recent missile blitz is mostly for internal consumption, as opposed to any rational attempt to win the war. Any concept of unified military command, and effort seems to be a joke. Perhaps a worthwhile target is in port in Berdyansk? He might be a great deal less arrogant if the Defense Production Act was applied with great vigor to say, half his assets? It is all about the appearance of doing SOMETHING after they got their heads handed to them in Kharkiv, where they clearly were not doing anything. Well, unless drinking, looting, raping , and murdering count, they did a lot of those.

If the Russians run into another round of "shell famine", I don't think the ruzzian military or Putin's government would survive. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/y0k2ze/incredible_footage_of_gmlrs_strikes_on_russian/ As is the Ukrainian ISR/fires bubble is getting better fast, and the ruzzian's are starting to pay the bill.