dan/california

Never has enthusiasm been faked less convincingly. Some really funny comments. To paraphrase the best one "They didn't realize Sring Time For Hitler was a parody"

The Russians have had this problem since the beginning of the war. Apparently whatever happens when troops get out of visual contact with a company, or even battalion level, officer is so bad they just keep them bunched up regardless of the casualties.

It is never good to bleep it up so badly your boss has to check in with his office on a holiday...

I wonder if Western intelligence has a good feel for the size of the traveling cast that does these little fictions. Is there a manual that states the minimum distance that must be maintained between Putin and and the first person who is not part of his entourage? It would make a fascinating little addendum to the eventual history books.

https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb It has been brought up before but 150km plus range of the rather interesting combination of two pieces of preexisting hardware seem like the next step. I have no idea what Saabs initial production capacity will be, but ALL of it should bes hipped straight to Ukraine. As much as I dislike the incremental approach, it is the way the game is being played, and the GLSDB is the next increment. It is also well above freezing across the entire front. I stand by my statement that we don't know anything except that it is to muddy for large scale operations.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/russia-ukraine-war-drones-future-of-warfare/672241/ They read the thread...

Ukraine will take as many as they can make, as soon as they can make them!

The ray of hope in the article is that is sounds like they are not going to buy it. I truly can't see doing a vehicle like that doesn't have some sort of weapon mount, the soldiers facing out, and a hybrid drive that could run silent for at least five or ten kilometers. It might not make any sense to do it all.

I poked around the site a bit, the whole thing is so far down the rabbit hole it isn't really worth analyzing.

All true, but also mostly weighs against the fifty million per copy program.

At 50k from the front line does it need to cost 50 million dollars per copy?

I am saying that the AA envelope you have to stay out of is rapidly expanding from ~5km to -40km. At what point does that imply the need for a different plan?

see below

FINALLY

I don't think helicopters are viable in a modern threat environment. I am oversimplifying here, but bear with me. Ukraine got it first IRIS-T system and put it down around Kherson/Odessa, burning Ka-52s started raining like snowflakes, and the Russians decided they didn't want to be on the right bank anymore. Now I realize the Russia doesn't have anything as good as Iris-T, but how long will it be be before China, and therefore its proxies do have something that is at least three quarters as good. How long before closest approach a helicopter can make to the FEBA goes from the 5km that even current Russian air defense seems to be able to enforce, goes to 10km, and then to 25 km. AT what point are REALLY expensive helicopters/VTOLs just not worth the investment? I also realize the current U.S. military relies on vertical lift for a great many missions. I am trying to point out that might not be viable going forward. Or least there ought to be a very clear eyed assessment of how viable it is. As The_Capt pointed out recently in regards to armor, that assessment probably needs to be led, at least in part, by someone who didn't spend their whole career flying choppers.

See below I have said this before, but you two gentlemen need to write a book! For both the historical record, and to hopefully inform whoever is in charge of the next oh bleep moment. All true, and it has been greatly aided by VERY warm weather.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/sikorsky-formally-protesting-armys-black-hawk-replacement-choice Army trying to move ahead with next generation vertical lift. My question is should all that money be spent on drones? I am profoundly unconvinced helicopters are viable gong forward. Really curious about peoples people opinions?

Well that pretty much sums up the state of the Russian military.

Mobiks trying to inch worm their way back to safety in the ruts of the same road they just inexplicably just drove down to "attack" is becoming the video theme of this stage of the war.

Their seems to be an entire battle pack of scenarios in there.

The extent, still undetermined, to which China comes to effectively control Russian natural resources could make China's foreign policy much better, or much worse. The smart play for China is to take this as an easy win, and spend the next several decades consolidating this control to maximum extent possible without setting of a massive anti Chinese reaction in Russia. The worst case scenario is they decide they are just sanction proof enough to make a play for Taiwan and wreck the world economy in the process. There are strong and weak versions of both of course.

Ukrainian logistics people must be in a continuous state of losing their minds. Just trying to keep oils, greases, and transmission fluids sorted for their menagerie of a vehicle fleet would drive a person crazy.

All I know is what is in the post. It could well be training. There wasn't a lot of incoming. If it is training though, that is a good sign in and of itself.

Good video, pretty solid tank infantry coordination.