dan/california

I have been saying for months that everything the Russians are doing in Ukraine is about Russian politics after Putin, and after Ukraine. As The_Capt has so elegantly put it the Russians have already lost this war and an d the only question is how bad. But NOBODY in he Russian power structure care about Russia as a whole, at all, the war is now a zero sum points scoring exercise for power and position within the regime. Prighozin had hoped to take Bakmuht, even as the Regular Russian forces got hammered into dog meat on the right bank of the river, and use this to take Shogui's job and make himself Putin's successor. The regular army responds by retreating from the right bank in time, and cuting wagners logistics to the point where they CAN'T take Bakmuht. I am not sure that AFU was ever in danger of losing Bakmuht, but they surely aren't losing it while Wagner is short on shells.

Not necessarily buying it. Ukraine can run an information OP when it really wants too. They especially like look at me, over here, when the real deal is somewhere else.

By far the most useful variant would be the new SHORAD version, which is what is actually in that picture. I have always been under the strong impression that the MGS is pretty much regarded as a failure. Even the base infantry carrying version with 40mm grenade launcher does a great job of supporting infantry if the ATGM threat is suppressed. Not as good as more Bradley's but well worth sending if the Pentagon has them to give.

Hard to say it better than that!

I must say that does a nice job of summing up why the Poles have said never again, and MEANT it.

I REALLY like the idea of Ukraine getting a new Battalion of Bradley's every month until the Russians quit and go home.

A viewpoint I will give a full and fair hearing about a week after the last Russian soldier leaves Ukraine. Until then...

i will take a quick swing at the question. Russian losses are running ~3000 KIA or badly wounded per WEEK to give a very round but I believe reasonable number. The support we are giving Ukraine is a lot in if you look at the dollar amount, but much less than ten percent of the U.S. defense budget. Absolutely all indicators are that the Russian economy is somewhere between sinking, and actual free fall. Mobilizing a half a million more men will only make it worse. If the front lines don't move an inch until one side collapses from exhaustion, who wins? My money is on Ukraine. Feel free to disagree, it is sort of what we do here.

I am strongly of the opinion they should have gone with a 120mm breach loading mortar for the MPF instead of the 105mm high velocity gun. The 105 is only ok at killing armor. And it is only ok at digging troops out of real entrenchments. a breach loading mortar could do a lot of its work without ever poking into LOS at all. Are they doing a 105mm version of the new settable airburst round that just came out for the Abrams? That would make it notably better at the dug in infantry side of the equation. Can I make pretty please request for both options in new game? At least in a module? I would love to do an in game comparison.

Hopefully it will outright shatter, and the wave of panicked fleeing mobiks will literally trip up whatever reinforcements/counter attack the Russians attempt to plug the hole.

Fair enough, I guess another eighteen months in charge was truly the only goal. Makes certain sort of sense if you value the lives and fortunes of everyone else in Russia about as highly as I value the ants in my yard.

Even by that standard Putins decision making has been vastly sub optimal. There was a point in March where Ukraine would have made deal that gave Putin a lot of what he wants. Even with plan A in literal smoking wreckage, Putin doubles down on the Donbas strategy rather that declaring victory and going home. Now he is on a path where he exhausts the state capacity of his entire Regime before he goes down. But I truly don't see that he has changed the place where this winds up, except for the size of the cemeteries, and the quality of the next sunflower crop, given tat the Russians can't be bothered to pick up their dead.

Orban is just reading Putin talking points.

Clearly rotating units is the single hardest thing for Ukraine to do. I don't think that is out of line from the history of previous conflicts. Obviously, anything that can be done to improve the process should be. Perhaps getting more people through NATO training courses will help.

In many ways the stock market is the best analogy. Even if your trading scheme works brilliantly today, a lot of VERY smart people are going to try and make it work less well, by tomorrow, and not at all by next week.

The EW evolution never stops, looks like the Ukrainians have made an advance of some sort.

I think comprehension has finally dawned in Paris and Berlin that the fastest way to end this thing is beat Russia and be done with it. The outgoing U.S. Congress appropriating enough money to float Ukraine for a year or more got the message across in old Europe at least. I don't think we really know how it was received in Moscow yet? And we might not until Russian State TV starts broadcasting Swan Lake or the equivalent.

I am not under any illusion the fighting is anywhere close to over. Just attempting to clarify one of the many ways this thing could wind down, someday, maybe. Indeed it would be a brilliant exercise in diplomatic needle threading to achieve it. It is at least as likely the currents idiots running Russia keep trying until there is a full 1917-18 level disintegration. But if there is an overwhelming outbreak of good sense someone should have the draft treaties ready to go.

I think the general Idea The_Capt has suggested repeatedly is that the treaty bringing Ukraine into NATO and the EU is signed at the same table, by the same people, at the same time, as the one resolving claims to Crimea, and the L/DPR. This would mean the very next Kaliber/Iskander launched at Kharkiv would be a CONSIDERABLY higher cost mistake for Russia. It might also make it sellable in Ukraine.

Truly excellent work on somebodies part. Doubly so since I think there are a fair few sea sparrows in inventory. It just makes it that much harder for the Russians to exhaust the available AA munitions.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stay-tuned-with-preet/id1265845136?i=1000592593141 A long and excellent PodCast with the head of the Eurasia group. Not just Ukraine, but a LOT about Ukraine. Note that it takes them about ten minutes to get to the Ukrainian section.

It proves how pressed the Russians feel, though. Ukraine should attempt to double HIMARS strikes both days, just to make a point.

Lukashenko faking it harder?

Russia COULD establish a Hezbollah like subnational entity in its territories facing Ukraine, but the cost would be very high. I would add that this also in direct contravention of the annexations that that were just passed ~three months ago. Russia would basically have to allow Wagner, or something like it to rule at least a couple of oblast of Russian territory. And Unlike Hezbollah there is no obvious religious difference to base this statlet on. It would just be cancerous dumping ground for Russia's disaffected. The D/LPR were doing some of this before the war, but i really don't think status quo antebellum is remotely achievable. Among other things all of the nutcase/disaffected/former prisoners that would have to man the armed forces of such an entity would vastly more dangerous to the Russian State than they were before the war. Ghirkin, Prigohzin, and several similar monsters, would no doubt nominate themselves to be the "Government" of this unhappy little polity. Could the Kremlin tolerate any of this? What he said!

Allow me to add that it is currently one degree warmer in Luhansk than it is in my suburb of Seattle, and that definitively is not freezing anything...