TheVulture
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Posts posted by TheVulture
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42 minutes ago, c3k said:
Towed artillery does not seem to have a place on this battlefield. Yet, that's what the US is providing.
I agree that towed artillery doesn't seem like a whole lot of use in a mobile battlefield, but on the other hand:
- It's better than nothing and might be quicker to become proficient compared to self-propelled artillery
- Presumably some artillery has to be kept stationed along currently quiet borders like Belarus and Moldova, so towed guns could be used there to free up better units for more active areas
- There's been a fair bit of Russian towed artillery seen as well, so it is at least providing symmetric capability
- Some fronts, like most of the Donetsk-Luhanks 2014 front line has barely moved so far in the war (despite multiple attacks), so immobile artillery in those heavily fortified lines would still be pretty useful.
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14 minutes ago, Probus said:
Can someone link me or show me what the front lines look like now in the East and what Ukraine is up against? I am having trouble conceptualizing the front.
I don't know of anywhere that has up to date detail, https://www.uawardata.com/ is updated every few days (and there's a toggle on the left side to show approximate Russian BTG locations, although they are going to vary somewhat in combat effectiveness). Last updated 4 days ago now though, so it's not massively current, but BTGs aren't going to move around much in that time span on the front lines. No information on Ukrainian locations for security reasons.
https://liveuamap.com/ has much the same indication of who controls what territory - which is of debatable accuracy (in the early days of the war there was a much more useful map that indicated Russian controlled, Ukrainian controlled areas, and areas in which neither side was able to prevent the other operating, which I think was rather more informative. But I've unfortunately not seen any more recent version of that map). Liveuamap has the usual problems of accuracy, rumours, unverified informaion etc., but as a general picture, since you can look at the data for a particular day, it is possible to e.g. look at where fighting has been reported in the last day, 2 days, 4 days whatever and get a general sense of where fighitng is happening and which way it is moving.
ISW daily reports do a good job of pulling together the days events and trying to create a plausible, coherent picture. Yesterdays is at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-18
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16 minutes ago, JonS said:
Mike? Mike Sparks? Is that you buddy? Where have you been!?
Just for future reference in this discussion, the Ukrainian for Gavin is Гевін.
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Russia reporting 3 people injured (with pictures of destroyed houses) due to 'shelling' in Golovchino, western Belgorod region. That's about 20 km from the border with Ukraine. Not impossible I suppose, but I'd have though that any Ukrainian artillery capable of firing > 20 km would have better things to do right now than lobbing a few shells at non-military targets just to be annoying.
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29 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:
Probably initial gains that will have everyone freaking out and running around like headless chicken and then a slow fizzle out. Like the Ardennes, the 1918 offensives etc...
Pretty much. Hasn't it been a pretty immutable pattern since the invention of the blitzkrieg that you can't realistically stop a mechanized attack at the point of the initial attack - you try and disrupt it, slow it down, and narrow the penetration frontage as much as you can and move reserve units to contain and eventually eliminate the breakthrough?
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I saw a report that Captain Aleksander Chirva, commander of the landing ship Caesar Kunikov (Ropucha-I class) has died in hospital from his injuries.
Any confirmation of this? Would this be from when the Saratov was sunk at Berdyansk, and two other Ropucha class ships were clearly on fire to some degree as they sailed away?
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Sounds of artillery and small arms (machine gun) fire reported in Staroverivka (red icon circled in yellow on map below). Which seems oddly far behind 'front lines'
(Karkhiv ring road just visible in top left. Blue flags are villages reported captured by Ukraine yesterday. Red line in the bottom right is where the front line was considered a few days ago east of Izyum - there have been a lot of reports of fighting and Haiduk posted something about very heavy combat at Borova yesterday or the day before).
This could be anything from spoiling attacks to stop Russia building up in its own time, through to attempts to threaten the supply lines, all the way up to an attempt to encircle the forces in Izym (which is where Russia has the highest concentration of BTGs right now). As ISW has been saying for a month now, this is where the battle war is going to be visibly decided (ignoring for now that Russia's initial plan was decided (as failure) as soon as the initial 'win in 3 days' plan was revealed to be fiction).
At what point do we stop talking about this upcoming Russia offensive, and start talking about the "Izyum salient"?
EDIT: On the down side, Russia has apparently largely gained control of Kremina (just near the red circle cut off on the bottom right of the image), although fighting is still ongoing there.
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
No, judging on display this is Stugna-P, just missile was lauched from upper storeys of the modular building
I trust your opinion on this more than my own
And now you've said that, the missile trail on the screen does look very much like how Stugna-P missiles normally look (aside from the downward angle).
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Not great quality, but video of TV screen showing drone footage of what appears to be a javelin hit on a Russia tank close to the Luhansk front line. The link doesn't say that it's a javelin, but stepping through the video frame by frame it looks like the last second or so of a javelin's top-down attack dive.
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8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:
On other news, Russia seems to want to exploit all the influence it has on Turkey. Today it was announced it is opening a consulate in occupied Northern Cyprus. Bad news for us. It will also mean they will attack the east med pipeline deal.
Turkey-Russia relations are complicated though (as are US-Turkey relations). They have conflicting interests in Syria and in the Caucasus. An in the black sea as well for that matter. In Ukraine, Turkey has called the situation a war and therefore closed the Dardanelles to Russian ships (and Ukraine's, for what that's worth). But at the same time they also have points where their interests align.
But I have a hard time seeing anything where Turkey is going to stick its neck out to support Russia in any meaningful way. There's nothing in it for them that would be worth antagonising the rest of NATO (of which Turkey is still a member - for now). The EU and USA make up a large chunk of Turkey's foreign trade, and the financial kicking they would get for supporting Russia would be crushing. Plus having the whole of NATO unequivocially supporting Greece in its territorial disputes with Turkey in the Agean. There's nothing Russia can offer it that's worth even a fraction of what it would have to lose.
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Railway bridge in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia region destroyed
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1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:
I'm not sure what you did wrong, but I didn't write that message. I think something went wrong with your quoting.
From what I've seen there might be a bug in the forum software if you keep the page open and keep hitting the 'show new replies' popup as more stuff gets added. It definitely screws up some of the embedded twitter links - someone will post a new link, and for me it shows a duplicate of a twitter message from further up the page (which usually makes the text they've just written make no sense). If you do a hard reload it sorts itself out.
I think I've seen some wonky stuff happen with quoting as well, but won't swear to that.
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Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down overnight between Kharkiv and Izyum. The tweet in Ukrainian seems rather idiomatic - google translate has the last sentence as:
Pilots. And the "rescuers of Malibu" got pussies
Hopefully a native speaker can enlighten us as to what this means - the context seems to suggest that the pilots and some of the force sent to try and rescue them were killed or captured.
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15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
From a trusted source in Kiev who has been keeping up on the news:
- possibly Dniprorudnoe is now back in Ukrainian hands. This is on the eastern bank of the Dnepr
At first I thought that this seemed like an odd one, given where it is some 20km behind the nominal front line near Zaporizhzhia, and in the area of the Russia 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment but then there was a report this morning of Russian forces firing artillery on Vasylivka train station, which is in the other largish town on that bank of the Dneipr and behind the supposed front line, so maybe it's plausible - or at least the Russians might have a 'front line' but don't actually have any troops in these towns and defence units have managed to infiltrate themselves in.
Situation unclear. As always...
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There's already been a lot of talk over the last month about the possibly disastrous state of Egypt's economy and political systems as a consequence of the war - Egypt depended heavily on Russia and Ukraine for both wheat and cooking oil (see charts), so prices have gone up drastically there with Russia basically stopping exports and Ukraine being unable to either.
In Egypt it was already the case that ~65% of child mortality was linked to malnutrition, and one of the countries in the world in the higher overall malnutrition brackets, and it's probably getting a lot worse in the immediate future.
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1 minute ago, DesertFox said:
Happy Easter weekend?...
I believe that Easter for the eastern orthodox denominations is the 24th April this year, a week later than protestant and Roman Catholic. So not Easter weekend in Ukraine or Russia.
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40 minutes ago, dan/california said:
we know anything else about this? Big deal if true. Mackay's heart is in the right place, but his entusiasm level can be a little high.
Don't know whether that one is true, but it certainly fits in the picture - reports earlier today of two Russian columns being hit by artillery as well as a bridge near Izyum being destroyed with Russia vehicles crossing it, so there's a decent amount of disruption and friction being applied to the supposed Russian build up.
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6 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:
BBC are reporting Russian state media has said the Moskva has sunk
Russian warship Moskva has sunk - state media https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61114843
MMM
Lets break out the champagne!
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According to the Odessa regional government, the Moskva is still on fire. https://t.me/suspilneodesa/11739
Given all the conflicting claims, I think all we can reliably say its that it isn't underwater, but the extent of the damage isn't known, but was severe enough for them to abandon ship, at least while the fire was burning.
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Pentagon says the Moskva is still (technically) afloat
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Trucks from Russia's "Ministry of Emergency Siutations" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Emergency_Situations_(Russia)) seen in Kherson (you can see 'МЧС России' markings on the trucks). Anyone have any idea what their role might be in Kherson in the middle of a war?
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Russia media claims that the Moskya is still afloat and being towed to port by tug.
Quote
The source of fire on the cruiser "Moskva" is localized. There is no open fire. Explosions of ammunition have been stopped.
Cruiser "Moskva" maintains buoyancy. The main missile armament was not damaged.
The crew was evacuated to the ships of the Black Sea Fleet in the area.
Arrangements are being made to tow the cruiser to port.
Causes of the fire are under investigation.
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Video of Russian columns being hit on the roads near Izyum and Balakliya
https://t.me/kharkivlife/35235
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Bridge destroyed near Izyum with a few Russian vehicles taken out in the process:
https://t.me/verkhovnaradaukrainy/16654
And now you've said that, the missile trail on the screen does look very much like how Stugna-P missiles normally look (aside from the downward angle). 
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-world-and-a-small-war/
Interesting article on general realignment in the world as a consequence of the war. Short version: the author predicts that the US will move to a defence alignment with Poland similar to how it used to have with West Germany during the cold war, since the US and Poland now share a common understanding of the Russian threats to their interest. Similarly Turkey, to a lesser degree. While Germany and France are being seen as less reliable partners
He's also written a lot in recent years about new strategic partnerships superceding NATO, such as the Quad to contain China, or the 'inter-marium' of the Baltic states, Poland, Romania and Ukraine having a common interest in defending against Russia (with US support). We can possibly chalk Finland in to that too. Previously this was viewed in the context (of the last few years) of NATO becoming obsolete, and what would replace it. Which still might be the case, depending on how seriously western Europe continues to view this.