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TheVulture

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, kraze said:

    winters are random and unpredictable in Ukraine. You can have below zero temps and zero snow resulting in the solid frozen ground one week - and the very next one it's like +1C and a massive wet snow dump which turns everything into mud, then suddenly it's -10C - 20C and a knee-deep snow. And then it's +4-+6C temps and sunny days.

    Coming up next in "How hot is Ukraine gonna get?": How cold is Ukraine gonna get?

    10

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

    I'm a bit skeptical. It's a limited space with some of the most professional Russian units. I'll be very surprised if there's open field running on this front. 

    Yeah, that's my worry too. In terms of being a coherent military force, the Russians in the Kherson direction seem to have generally shown the most competence. They're not going to be a push over.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by TheVulture

    2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

    Somewhere on the south

     

    We've not seen a lot of footage of mechanised forces (better opsec amongst other things I guess), but that looks like they are staging a push with some heavy forces there. Good luck everyone.

     

    EDIT: And then I saw MonkeyKing's post about a Ukraine mechanised attack north of Kherson. 

    I think the Ukraine general staff are going to be the definitive source of information on operational art on a 21st century battlefield, and how to make it work in practice.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

    Only 93.11%? Why not 100%?

    The other 6.89% voted for the only other option on the ballot:

    "Zaporizhia has never stopped being part of the Soviet Union, all glory to comrade Stalin, and any washing machines that may have been in my house were really the property of the Russian government".

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Getting on to more abstract military theory, this seems like one of those situations where it always seemed to me that maeouverists and attritionists were in violent agreement (i.e. arguing with each other but saying the same thing, because they can't get past their straw man of the others position).

    The maneouverists would point to the wisdom of not assaulting Lyman head on and trying to force the battle there, but rather attack weaker points, encircle Lyman and render the Russians there irrelevant, meaning that they can be captured or mopped up for virtually no cost later on.

    The attritionists would say that this is attrition warfare, encircling the enemy in order to destroy them, rather than chasing off after some pie in the sky maneouverist goal of targeting the mythical 'center of gravity' that would destroy the Russian's will to fight.

    So they both end up advocating the same thing (because it is pretty obviously the most sane course of action) while misrepresenting what the other school of though would do.

    Same applies to Kherson - I'm sure Ukraine would rather avoid street by street fighting in Kherson if at all possible, and simply cut off any Russian forces that stay there, and then wait them out. Unless there is a pressing reason to do otherwise.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

    Map update

    • As I suspected there was Southern UKR push (right bottom corner). Rybar claims road is under UKR fire and cannot be used by RU any more
    • Also, UKR pushed their light mobile forces/recon to Yampil and Torske
    • According to Rybar there is only one road left for Lyman defenders - Lyman-Terny-Makiivka-Svatove
    • UKR continue to push South from Nove (center)
    • UKR push North at Maliivka and Vyshne Solone most probably happens closer to the river - UKR claim they captured Pisky-Radkivsky. Given RU claims they control Borova most likely this is where the push is aimed
    • No update regarding UKR push to Makiivka or Borova-Svatove highway

     

    From the various different sources all appearing to broadly give the same picture, it's starting to look a lot like Ukraine have thoroughly broken the Russian defense line that ran from Oskil through Lyman and towards Severodonetsk; created gaps in multiple places and are more or less roaming in the Russian operational rear, at least as far as Lyman  is concerned.

     

    Are we on the verge of a local Russian collapse back to the Zherebets river or further now, or is that getting too far ahead of reality. Although with the push north from Bilohorivka already being on the other side of the Zherebets, maybe Russia will have trouble holding muchwest of Krasna river and be pushed back to e.g. Kremina and Svatove in short order.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 minute ago, billbindc said:

    It is quite likely from where I sit that the Russians did this themselves. Ukraine may seriously want them shut down but Zelensky would not risk creating an environmental disaster in Danish, German and Swedish waters. He would also not challenge their territorial sovereignty in so crude a way. Furthermore, the gas was barely flowing anyway. I have no inside knowledge but everything here points to Russia. With no gas flowing, the carrot wasn't getting them much so they decided to go all stick by destroying transfer capability completely. This has  bunch of knock on effects including showing will, making clear that Norwegian pipelines can be equally destroyed, ruining a potential carrot an anti-Putin faction could offer the West, etc.

    A very stupid move of course, since at a stroke a lot of influential German manufacturers now have no reason at all to lobby for a softer policy. The possibility of Russian gas is likely now gone so cold turkey and a new energy dispensation is the only sensible policy. Typical Putin.

    Hard to see how Russia gets anything from this though, and they'd have easier ways to shut down the pipelines by ... er ... shutting them down.

    Istead the cynic in me notes that shutting down the Nordstream pipelines is something the US has long wanted, and the outcomes of this are all likely to be ones that the US desires.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by TheVulture

    At risk of derailing this discussion with some actual battlefield events, 92md Mechanized brigade units apparently destroyed a Russian artillery position at Tabaivka, some 20km SE of Kupiansk. No indication of from what range, but maybe gives some indication of how far they've pushed from the Oskil river from that bridgehead.

     

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Selection of snippets from central asia about the US trying to outmaneouver Russia politically:

    Quote

    The U.S. in Central Asia. The United States is in talks with the governments of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to allow both countries to keep dozens of U.S. military aircraft flown to the two states by Afghan air force pilots as the government in Kabul was collapsing last year, according to a report by Politico. The aircraft are being held in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and would be exchanged for the countries' cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan. Washington hasn’t officially commented on the report, but if true, it would likely irritate the Kremlin, which wants to play the role of security guarantor in Central Asia.

    Investing in Kazakhstan. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took part in an investment forum attended by the leaders of major American companies. He touted the expansion of the strategic economic partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States. This is part of the expanding U.S. presence in Central Asia, a traditional buffer zone for Moscow.

    Cracking down. Kazakhstan’s Industry and Infrastructure Development Ministry said on Tuesday that it would require Russian and Belarusian truckers to present necessary paperwork to comply with Western sanctions. The sanctions have banned truckers from both countries from entering the bloc. The requirement was put in place earlier this year but not enforced. According to Russian media, Russian transporters had been warned that Kazakhstan was detaining Russian trucks with goods from Europe.

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Pro-Russian officials in Donetsk are claiming to have repelled a Ukrainian attack on Kremina:

    Quote

    ⚡️The attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kremennaya was repelled, the enemy tried to break into the city - the head of the DPR Pushilin

    https://t.me/bbbreaking/135627

    Looking at the map, to get there UKR would have to go through, or around, Lyman and Zarichne, so I have my doubts that this was actually an attack. So hyping up a brief contact with a recon or special forces patrol?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by TheVulture

    1 hour ago, dan/california said:
    Seems like the Russians are failing to hold the Oskil river line in several places. Anybody have any idea what the next terrain feature they could anchor too is?

     

    The Zherebets (?) river is about 20 km east of the Oskil, and roughly parallel to it - no idea how much of an obstacle it represents though. It runs down to the lake north of Zarichne.

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