Eddy

Hmm ... longer range missiles from the French. I wonder if this is more SCALP or whether it also includes the the runway denial Apache (from which Storm Shadow/Scalp is derived). Smaller range than Storm Shadow/SCALP but would still open up a new bunch of problems for the Russians.

Surely this would mean it's not representative, as he's only selected young people on social media who support the war enough to post about it? Or am I missing the point? Either way, interesting read.

I worked with a Belarusian team for a couple of years and this was not the impression I got. Tbf most of them were in their late 20s or early 30s and from Minsk but they were very anti-Russian and also quite bitter that the West would help Ukraine but not them. This was back in 2017-19 or so.

Put like that my money's on b. Russian AD is one of the few things that seems to have got better. If it was one aircraft shot down, maybe, but not four, with two being slow moving helicopters. Maybe the Ukrainians have got better capabilities, maybe the Russians got sloppy. Who knows But it doesn't really matter what I think. What matters is what the Russian's know. If it was there own AD, then lessons learned. If it was Ukrainian something or other, then they'll have to change their behaviour. The one thing I can say with absolute certainty - it wasn't me!

Interesting RUSI article on the TDF in the early(ish) days. Think its from a guest writer. Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Forces: The War So Far and Future Prospects | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org) What stuck me was when the Russian's shifted to artillery intensive offensives, the poor sods where armed with mgs and ags and basically couldn't fight back. Now wonder some of them struggled.

Good article from the operational view. However I haven't seen much about the strategic level (might even be the grand strategy level - I get confused). Russia's theory of winning seems now to be based on War weariness within Ukraine The 'West' growing bored Russia sticks it out There is no sign from what I gather of the first one. But what this does is clearly display that rather than material support from the West declining, it's actually increasing. And that comes a couple of days after Blinken and Cleverly stating we are in this for long haul thus backing up their statements. There is no evidence, none whatsoever, that the West is rowing back on supporting Ukraine. From the Russian point of view there must come a point where they start thinking 'oh crap, are assumptions about the West are wrong on this one'. As for the third point, Russia sticks it out: it's hard to tell the damage that is being done to the Russian economy but it is pretty significant. That utter bilge from the IMF earlier this year about 2% growth was just that - bilge. I'm not convinced they can stick it out multi year. And that's just the economic domain, let alone capability, will etc. Just for a laugh I'd like to see the UK announce another 14 Challengers sometime in about late August, just to ram home the message that we're not giving up on this one. We probably haven't got another 14 working Challengers but the Russkis don't know that!!

Or the world's worst soap opera. I find it astonishing that he is allowed to get away with these security breaches - shell shortages, units abandoning their positions etc - this is all valuable info for the Ukrainians. Surely even his elite backers would be telling him to shut up. It's almost like to those in power that the palace politics is what's important and the war is some minor distraction.

At long last a comment from publicity shy Prigozhin!

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production To paraphrase: Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks. The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue. And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name.

15 Bailey bridges and 6 pontoons will come in handy. What is a hefttruck please? Tried to translate and I got handle truck!

Report from the Atlantic Council on what are and are not game changers from this war in the authors opinion: Game-Changers-or-Little-Change-Lessons-for-Land-War-in-Ukraine-.pdf (atlanticcouncil.org) By and large a lot of what has been mentioned on here but with a bit more detail. There's a more detail on the Integrated Command and Control that I found particularly interesting. Also mentions Mass Precise Fires as a game changer which I know has been brought up here a lot. Anyway food for thought, perhaps.

Latest preliminary lessons from RUSI. Haven't read it yet but appears to about the intelligence and unconventional war Preliminary Lessons from Russia's Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022-February 2023 (rusi.org)

This ties in a bit with this good article I read ( https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putins-forever-war : free to read) concerning with how Putin is attempting to make this appear as an existential as one of his strategies to keep the war going. The article itself is looking at the war from Putin's perspective as an authoritarian leader and argues it is in his interests to keep the war going. The arguments made will be nothing new to anyone who has read all of the 2,224 pages (jeez - TWO THOUSAND, TWO HUNDRED AND TWENTY FOUR!!!!!!) of this thread but I found it helpful to see them laid out in one place and have them backed up by academic research. Well worth the read IMHO. Spoiler: The conclusion is send more and better weapons to Ukraine btw.

If you want to link a particular block from the Guardian feed and your on PC/Mac right click the time stamp (e.g. 3hrs ago 05:41) in the top left of the block to get the URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/24/russia-ukraine-war-live-counteroffensive-starts-soon-says-ukrainian-ground-forces-commander?page=with:block-641d194f8f08155de8cdb434#block-641d194f8f08155de8cdb434 Dunno how to do it using the android app tho.

Thanks. So what we know is the Russians are unable or unwilling to fulfil the order for S400s for India. This could be because they: Need for Ukraine Need them for a new air defence division (which may or may not be a lie - it's Shoigu after all) Are unable to produce enough new ones to fulfil there own needs for the war and India's Are unable to produce any Something else I haven't thought of Will be interesting to see if this 'new defence division' is ever created

Don't think this has been posted before: Indian Air Force not getting any delivery of S400s this year. Could be because they are being allocated to Ukraine. Or it could be that the Russians are having trouble producing them because of sanctions. I know this has happened in previous wars (IIRC Royal Navy requisitioned a few battlecruisers in FWW for example) but it's probably worth keeping an eye on this to see if there are more instances of this occurring as it may point to production issues. A little bit more here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-bakhmut-offensive-slowing-says-us-thinktank-eu-leaders-gather-for-summit?page=with:block-641c5a358f0893440cc9fd74#block-641c5a358f0893440cc9fd74

According to Armed men kill nine Chinese nationals in Central African Republic | Central African Republic | The Guardian it was allegedly a group called the Coalition of Patriots for Change. Got to admit my knowledge of the CAR war is not what it could be and I have no idea what relationship (if any) the CPC has with Wagner.

Put it this way, I wouldn't google it at work!

Article in The Economist backing up what has been said here about the cultural conflict within the AFU between the Soviet-style rigid, sequential, top down thinking and the 'mission command' thinking (I think it's free to read) Ukraine’s army must shed its Soviet legacy, says a military expert | The Economist Interestingly, the author states that in some cases modern technology is hindering, rather than enabling the mission command conducting of operations as the higher ups use the battle information to micro manage the lower echelons. Also states that some junior officers have started to ignore orders from above.

This from a Guardian reporter. Could be about right, could be inflated. Time will tell. Would explain why Ukr have decided to stay there tho.

I believe they are launched from Sicily. At least whenever I've looked on Flight Radar that's where they came from. Haven't checked in months though

My understanding is there have been no inspections since the start of Covid, so last three years

(2) Germany will increase ammunition production and repair capacity to support Ukraine, chancellor pledges (cnn.com) I guess he means 152 and 122 when he says classic stocks.

Good point. I hadn't even considered the strategic level as I don't think the RA will be able to do the learning at the operational level. Not necessarily because 'Russia sux' but because it is so difficult to do, especially while fighting a war. I recently re-read Dr Aimee Fox's Learning to Fight about how the British & Dominion armies went about learning in the FWW and the complexities of it - vertical vs horizontal, formal vs informal, Western front vs other fronts, exercise vs pamphlet etc. They had to try to overcome pre-war prejudices, snobbery between fronts (Western Front thought they had nothing to learn from other fronts), snobbery from British towards Canadian and Australian, traditional vs modern, learning the wrong lessons etc. They just about managed it but it took four years. And despite what can be garnered from Blackadder, those armies were open-minded, keen to learn organisations (well most of them). The long and short of it, I got from that book that learning on the job in a war is bloody difficult and complex.