panzermartin

According to UA sources, many missiles have been intercepted, among them even hypersonic Iskanders https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3424781-ukrainian-armed-forces-shoot-down-iskander-missile-near-kramatorsk.html

Yes, it's more like similar correct, I read that wrong.

You could be right but there are some really big booms as well up there, not something an AA missile would produce. They have claimed to have shot down quite a few, but they are probably exaggerating. But we are also exaggerating that HIMARS is invincible to AD systems that have proved to intercept similar RU missiles when in UKR service. HIMARS is actually slower than a WW2 V2 (but a smaller target )

When the bridge was hit for the first time, I remember no active AD. Now I see a lot intercepts (not sure if every boom though is a kill). Seems RU are more aware now of the threat and probably a little more capable to shoot down HIMARS?

Impressive strike. Could the simultaneous detonations indicate some behind the lines job taking advantage of the looser summer vibe in the peninsula? I have seen the HIMARS strikes and they are always sequential, unless you can program two or more missiles to hit the same time. Russians continue to deny to take this war as seriously as it is and I'm not talking only about the crimean tourists. Even those people in swimming suits might have guessed this is not a special operation anymore.

Yes, that must have been stressful for RU wondering what new western toy will land on their heads each different week. I don't know if Ukraine has a time limit as well, as there are domestic and international conditions in play that are not very clear yet but certainly Russia is the one in more hurry.

My guess is that RU are not there to forever stand still and defend until UKR has tank divisions and a pile of HIMARS. They will probably move first. At the same time any major offensive against a presumably big UA force could spin into a disaster that could cost them Kherson sooner. A tricky situation.

Kherson offensive won't happen any time soon I think . If at all. They are indeed keeping RU forces pinned there with the eternal threat of a counter hoping to relieve other sectors or baiting them to attack first . Some signs were too obvious like the mailed instructions to citizens there...seriously? Ukraine can't materialize a counterattack plan with at least local arty superiority or enough mechanized forces. In fact RU forces there are more likely to start moving towards Mikolayev either to put an end to the continuous threat, or just by resuming the initial plan towards Odessa. And maybe that's Ukraine best chance, repel the attack and then hopefully counterattack in a more favorable fluid situation.

What is a tankie? Mistreating or killing POWS in times of wars like this, is absolutely no surprise sadly. Its a reality but even the good guys commit such crimes on and off the record. But treating your own helpless people like s*** in everyday life hits a different chord.

I made an observation. That the timing is not right. We have been skeptical here about the possibility of China entering this "challenge US dominance" battle in a more drastic way. And we agree we are not fans of this prospect for various reasons, mainly economic. China still sees US as the daughter of the British Empire. In a sense they are right. Like the British, they also have a big Navy that is constantly on World tour. Taiwan is a very sensitive case and not an arena for personal political gains.

Pelosi might have pushed China more decisively to the side of Russia. The visit was an unnecessary move and not that smart amidst Ukraine war. China hasn't assisted openly Russia so far but now the mood is changing rapidly and I'm not seeing it reversing. Unless I'm not aware US has decided now is the best chance for them to confront both of their rivals ala WW2. Militarily China is not ready yet to challenge them , so there is a window of opportunity.

The bottom picture is from March I think and according to a comment the plant got hit by kalibrs 24h after this post?

Probably not the right time to say this, but Pisky would make an ideal CMBS map

Hmm maybe wide circulation will have the same effect Haiduk noted. But being Russia maybe nothing happens after all...

And rightly so. Regardless of side is a disrespect to human life and suffering.

Yes a 20yr old brainwashed who got drafted must be punished and humiliated like that after all. Because losing your legs is not enough punishment. Would you say the same for the unfortunate hitlerjugend kid with the panzerfaust that got crippled fighting the commies and the " red hordes" . I bet no.

Maybe an example of the sheeps russians are then, they didnt question the authority (driver) and nobody came in the defense of the disabled. Pathetic.

Where is that? Kherson, or Russia? This is really sad and sorry the driver is an inhuman piece of meat no matter what the unfortunate soldier was involved in.

I see, that explains some things. But there can been also part 2 in this. Turkey is also on a crucial turning make or break point in its history that will affect support in these regions.

This is the only possibility I guess. With no visible cracks suddenly to fall apart like the pressure cooker Grigb repeats. I can't predict this. I'm curious why Russia didn't intervene at all in the Karabach if this was a national security issue. It was another sign of increasing weakness?

My theory is that the melting point of these breakaway republics is past its date. It was in 1991 and the fall of the Soviet Union. You brought some valid points about current culture diversity in Russia but still that's not enough to suggest that there is desire to cut the umbilical cord. Until we see hints of unrest and another color revolution the core of the russian ethnos remains no less firm than UK and US. Actually maybe more. UK aka GB has lost huge areas the last centuries and let's remind ourselves almost half of the Scots voted recently for independence. I frequent a bar here owned by a Scotsman friend that totally hates English rule and so do the other Scots and Irish people drinking there. (Yes and every Scottish beer >Those weak tea flavored ales ) The decision of Brexit against the desires of these populations and the economic deterioration will only make this worse. But I bet they still have good chances to stay together despite all the historical vendetta. I think most predict this event along a catastrophic collapse for Russia. Well it's one of the possible outcome of this war. But we are very early in this war to tell. The example that was brought here with Nagorno Karabakh is not an ethnic russian issue. In fact Russia showed very little desire to assist there, that could possibly indicate some behind the scenes deal with Turkey involved.

For sure Russia is distracted with Ukraine, but Azerbaijan conducted their major attack in 2020 well before the current events. Also, in this case we have probably Turkey acting behind the scenes.

Nagorno Karabakh it's not really Russia isn't it.

This. I'm constantly reading here about predictions on Russia breaking up in an ethnic puzzle and I have my scratching head moments. Why a group of russian speaking people depending on the hand that feeds to survive , will somehow have the desire to go autonomous in the middle of nowhere. This could only had a chance to happen with external intervention and support from another country but this is Tom Clancy material as well.

There is also a history of chinese involvement in Serbia since the 90s. I still remember the Belgrade chinese embassy that was deliberately bombed by NATO, as Serbs were supposedly hosting there comms. Some months ago the landing of multiple giant Chinese cargo planes with weapons in Belgrade, was a surprising act. If something happens there I suspect it's not only Russia involved.