panzermartin
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Posts posted by panzermartin
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5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
If I were the Russians, I’d do my best to make Kharkiv not worth holding for Ukraine. Completely level it a la Grozny. I don’t know if they have enough KABs or artillery within range to do it, but I guess if they were able to hit power and water and take it offline reliably, that would go some towards achieving the effect.
I don't think they will like "their" Kharkik in total ruins
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52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
These comments do not make any sense:
First off the RA would need to push an encirclement nearly 200kms long. That is being attacked from without while trying to take a city of 1.4 million and 350 sq kms of urban terrain. For reference, Mariupol was 166 sq kms and the Russian were controlling it for hundreds of kms both land and water side...and it still took them over 3 months and an ungodly number of losses to take. In fact there are some theories that Mariupol tied down so many RA forces that their summer '22 failed and it set the conditions for the losses in Fall '22. Kharkiv is 3-4 times the problem, and the UA was nowhere near as well armed and experienced back in '22. "Encircling Kharkiv" is so militarily stupid that the Russian's might even try it but it may cost them so much as to create conditions for operational collapse elsewhere.
As to LOCs, one need only look at the map to see all of the interior lines that are still open. There is both MSRs and rail. As to terrain, a quick look shows that the terrain to the west of the city is the same rolling tank country we have come to suspect...with no tank play likely. To the east there is a major water obstacle that will tie in a right flank tightly.
I mean unless the UA collapses completely this is a major operation to pull off...think a couple hundred thousand troops and air superiority.
Finally, this is the double standard. The UA establish a bridgehead south of Kherson and it is "a minor raid". The RA make some minor bridgehead gains on the border and "they are encircling Kharkiv!" In reality this is a secondary front that the RA is trying to open up, likely in the hopes it can take some pressure off the south. But like everything else, RA offensive-wise, these will likely be nips and bites. Unless the UA collapses completely, at which point this is all pretty academic in the entirety of Eastern Ukraine. Of course we have no indications of impending UA collapse, but hey why let that stand in the way?
Yeah, the numbers and the data seem impossible at the moment. Bear in mind at the same time the size and the many corridors make this city hard to defend also for Ukraine (that has numerical disadvantage) .
I don't think a complete encirclement will be ever possible. But semi encirclement, control of critical junctions, the northern buffer zone and constant harrasment of supply routes are possible and will make the situation difficult for the defender.
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26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Meh... why not compare it to something more relevant, like Kharkiv 2022?
I think every operation in Feb 2022 was a shock and awe bad copy, aimed to cause chaos in the UKR C&C and minimize casualties and destruction. It failed badly. But there was no chance these scattered fast disoriantated moving units would be able to "occupy" and defeat an opponent that had still very much will to fight.
The war now is "redesigned" in the traditional Russian bloody chess style. It's still very problematic but it somehow achieves steady gains.
Still not sure these will be enough to win the war or whatever winning this war means anymore.
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2 hours ago, Holien said:
Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...
Let's look at recent past history.
Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?
Has anything changed that will mean they can?
Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?
Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?
Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?
If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?
As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?
But hey let's look at recent past history...
Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?
Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...
So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.
Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.
Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it.
Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...
Well I have been wondering and asking these questions about Russian casualties. They seemed too heavy to be sustainable.
But the last year their answers are more positive for RU. They can keep going and slowly grab land and settlements that Ukraine hasn't been able to challenge back.
Yes Ukraine can defend. But RU has the advantage in massive firepower to dislodge defenders while UKR is unable to, due to practical reasons. Artillery losses and lack of airforce. They are practically an FPV army at the moment with some long range rocket ability for targets of opportunity.
Kharkiv can slowly be encircled. Why they didn't attack so far , I don't really know but I guess it's a very big operation that can't go forward unless some conditions are met. Successes in the south /east that keep UKR reserves busy could be one of them.
I know the cost of this war is insane for Russia and I do wonder what is going on and they are still well in the game. But I think it's clear even to the most naive how essential parts of Ukraine are for them.
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So, they probably plan to gradually encircle and cut off Kharkiv. I'm wondering how much longer will Ukraine be able to supply the defenders of this sector so exposed to Russian artillery /air assets next to the borders.
There is no clear picture what assets Ukraine has in the city and if it is fortified. I guess no Abrams and Leopards that far away.
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3 hours ago, ZellZeka said:
More like a cluster munition. The Russians hit the Odessa embankment with cluster ammunition to hit more civilians
Possibly. But I was not sure clusters could cause big fire in buildings. (unless incendiary?)
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12 hours ago, panzermartin said:
Harry Potter couldn't save this. Is this considered an attack on western culture.
And why Russians did hit it?
Back on this, I'm reading some info that probably is an intercepted with Buk Russian missile debris that hit the castle.
Makes sense, as the damage doesn't look like from a direct hit and mainly the roof is burning. Also makes sense as it really didn't make sense for Russians to waste a missile on it.
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21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Very sad. Honestly, I've been surprised that Russia hasn't targeted Ukrainian cultural heritage sites. Considering Russia wants to wipe Ukrainian identity off the map, and doesn't care what the world thinks about doing so, you'd think they would have terror bombed all kinds of places. Especially in Kyiv.
My assumption is that Ukraine has quietly informed Russia that if they do that then the Kremlin won't go unscathed. Based on Ukraine's ability to blow stuff up, Russia would take such a threat very seriously.
Soooo... why this one and why now?
Steve
Probably Russians are pissed with the latest ATACMS strikes and hitting in blind revenge mode
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Harry Potter couldn't save this. Is this considered an attack on western culture.
And why Russians did hit it?
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You think a "double floor" cage be able to defeat a tandem RPG round falling from an FPV?
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More about smoking. This video says this thing can produce a ton of it for hours. Probablly thermal blocking as well. But what a nice sitting target indeed who ironically can't hide itself.
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
The history develops by spiral %) Avdiivka-Chasiv Yar is "Russian Somme" ?
Yes, who would have thought after 100 years , masses of infantry with gas masks , trenches, absent tanks and massive artillery. And godamn Rats!
The only good thing out of this that hopefully the new CM will be infantry heavy and more focused In these tactics. No more all seeing killer tanks and APCs.
All bow to the weary infantryman.
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So after WW1, we will now see again photos of men in gas masks in trenches. Are we really moving forward
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44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Hard sitauation we have also in Krasnohorivka town north to occupied Maryinka. Several days ago Russians could break through of our rare artilery fire and drones and despite some losses in vehicles landed infantry in southern and south-eastern part of the town. Russians seized railway station area - this is area of dachas and private cottages, also Russian infantry was too few to continue advance. But we also had few infantry to clear this territory. Russians became to use their usual tactic of gradual forces accumulation in captured area for new further burst. Reportedly yesterday UKR troops again threw out Russians from SE part of Krasnohotivka and partially from southern part, recapturing railway stattion. But today Russians again slightly advanced in southern part of the town. BTW southern part is the contested area, because there too hard hold the ground for both sides. Main stronghold of UKR trrops (by Russian opinion) is a local fireproof structures plant, which Russian aviation "processes" with 500 kg and 1500 kg KABs.
So the Russians keep pushing despite losses.
Some questions.
Have they really calculated they can take every small Ukrainian settlement in slow fashion while taking losses of precious equipment, even from hits in their airports well behind lines? Could they win the ground war and lose in the big picture in the end. Or they have certain city goals like Kharkiv and Kramatorsk - Slaviansk that think will bring a domino blow in the UKR political/military structure.
Where are the precious toys Ukraine has received from the West. I see some scattered Bradleys here and there but no news about Leopards, M1s, Challengers etc. Artillery systems are also not much visible anymore.
Is Ukraine holding them for a bigger counter operation, or they have suffered heavier losses than actually reported.
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
Depends on the aerosol. If it is just plain old smoke…not really. Even cheap commercial drones can have multi-spectral cameras onboard, let alone the higher end stuff. If it is treated smoke, which is harder to make and more expensive, it could give IR protection.
Problem with drones/FPVs is that they can fly under that layer unless they basically do it at ground level.
I suspect the main problem for Russians are the myriad simple FPV drones that Ukraine is using. These rely on plain cameras mainly. Smoke can make them less effective at some percent. Guess that would be small. They seem to be producing the smoke on ground level.
I think it could be more effective perhaps with real time satellite intelligence the UA is getting from the West. But I have no accurate idea how "real time" it is in a moving battlefield.
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56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Is it better than doing nothing? Sure. Does it complicate drone usage? Sure. But that's all it does even under the best circumstances. All standard smoke problems apply here as they do anywhere else throughout military history.
Here's why I don't think this will effectively change the outcome:
- Ukraine is incredibly windy. Smoke doesn't work well in wind. Even if the wind is fairly mild, or in a favorable direction, air still moves around and that breaks up smoke consistency. The further out from the generators you go, the more that smoke is dissipated even under the best of circumstances.
- Smoke is difficult to work with at any scale. The bigger the scale, the more difficult it is to work with. In particular the length of time for it to be maintained. Therefore, this will be (at most) a limited capability for one small section of front at a time.
- You can see even in this propaganda video that smoke isn't very effective. I can see individual buildings, streets, and other things needed to navigate and that's on a tiny pixelated X video. Trained drone operators should be able to navigate pretty easily even with non-thermal drones.
- Thermal drones will not be affected by this tactic. Even if they use thermal masking smoke, that only works when it is dense. There's just no way they can keep up that sort of density across the whole battlefield. And the further out from the generators, the more difficult it will be to have smoke be dense.
- Advance routes can be guessed at prior to any operation Russia might launch. All Ukraine has to do is keep a couple of good ISR drones watching those locations and then direct the FPVs to any spots showing activity as they already do. Even if the smoke causes some problems for the FPVs, if they are directed to a spot I think it's more than likely they'll be able to hit their targets.
And this presumes that Ukraine isn't able to interfere with the generators, which is silly
All Ukraine needs to do is wait for them to start producing smoke and they are sitting ducks because by definition they can't move once they start laying down smoke. It's really not difficult to locate them since they have a very, very, very obvious signature. Send in an ISR drone, see where the smoke starts, then hit them with FPVs and/or artillery. Problem solved.
So... I think this is just more Russian copium. It won't do much of anything even under the best circumstances, but even then it won't last long because they should be pretty easily knocked out.
Steve
6. I hope they have good graphics card BTW otherwise the offensive might stall
I agree overall. Looks like it's more psychological for own consumption.
Though I think the primary weapon of Ukraine are myriads of small market non IR FPV drones that may have some problems.
If I was serious as RU, I would also think of decoy smoke too. Not sure if they have the luxury though.
This kinda reminds me of the rather unsussesful zukkov's use of searchligts in the battle of seelow heights.
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Not sure if this pro russian account is trustworthy but this looks like preparation for RU wide scale offensive.
Could this be actually effective against drones, I wonder.
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First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out.
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16 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:
This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.
Who knew, motorcycles (and sidecars) would finally make it in CM BS2 as an assault element
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Deleted, no need to feed more off topic matters
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I "hope" this thread stays titled how hot Ukraine's gonna get, in the near future.
There are clear axises colliding in an expanding battlefront and nothing will surprise us anymore. Especially since we witnessed something us unimaginable as Russia storming a European capital. Everything is connected in a way or another. There is Russian presence in Syria, and there are Iranian drones in Kiev.
But yes, for now makes sense to keep this thread clear off other conflicts. Like we wouldn't discuss WW2 North Africa and European theatre in the same thread.
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Scores of ballistic missiles penetrated US/Israel's defense, some hit negev F35 airbase
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10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
that is going to run out first is Ukrainian frontline infantry strength
Ukraine had the finest most battle hardened and motivated infantrymen West could hope to employ imo. It is still unknown the losses they suffered in the large counter offensive.
Unfortunately many were lost too in lengthy sieges like Bahmut, Mariupol and Avdeevka and keep suffering losses under Glide bombs and artillery.
These troops would rather die than succumb to Russia's plans, and hated them with a passion.
That's the no1 adversary Russia had to defeat. After that, what kind of infantry will fight against them in eastern Europe ? Polish conscripts or French legionnaires?
The dramatic surge in FPV drone use might be an indication how Ukraine plans to counter a possible a frontline manpower issue. They are in cases more effective/deadly than a whole platoon of infantry but can they really replace infantry?
All Ukraine needs to do is wait for them to start producing smoke and they are sitting ducks because by definition they can't move once they start laying down smoke. It's really not difficult to locate them since they have a very, very, very obvious signature. Send in an ISR drone, see where the smoke starts, then hit them with FPVs and/or artillery. Problem solved.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by panzermartin
Of course we must all have noticed the very long and dense forest area that almost starts from russian borders and enters the city of Kharkiv almost serving like a portal.
Dismounted infantry can theoretically advance in numbers through there unnoticed and protected from drones at least. But at the same time they have very poor visibility of what lies ahead of them.
Obviously Ukrainians have thought some solutions to detect and block advances I guess.