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panzermartin

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Posts posted by panzermartin

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

    I am pretty sure this sentiment has been expressed every time in history a disruptive technology hit the battlefield.  “Damn gunpowder/cannon/muskets/rifles/machineguns/baloons/aircraft/tanks etc, war is hard enough why can’t things just go back to the way they were?”

    The good news is that I am not sure we have hit a change in the nature of warfare yet…maybe…. Character shifts we can deal with.  We are still reeling from the last nature shift back in 1945.  Another one so soon could break us.

    Be honest, who is going to play CM: WDD Where Drones Dare in 2035. It will make Star Wars look dated. Just let the Boomer inside you speak freely, music was better back then, vinyl was better, air and sea were cleaner, warfare was forgiving.

    I tihink I'm going to launch CM FB . I'm enjoying the last good things of my era.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    @Kinophile

    This war showed many things, which considered before as impossible became real. There were several cases of cruise missiles downning with HMGs. Yes, if the missile flies with a speed 200 m/s under 90 degrees from your position, your chances are almost zero. But if missile incoming directly to you, your chances raise, especially when your HMG equipped with thermal sight. All question - to give mobile group a proper engagement point. Mobile groups as usual had PDA with "Virazh" AD info system, transmitting trajectories of missiles, so the group can move and take proper position. 

    Also, pay attention, on this video you can see only HMG shooting and missile explosion, no incoming SAM, chasing the cruise missile and hitting it. 

    I'm just not convinced that the HMG that was filming got the kill. Looks almost 90, looks a bit far. Maybe some other AA on the other side, not possible to tell from the video. Also, could this be a shahed again?

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    I hate where this is heading. Basically this tech can produce never ending wars not dependent on available personnel, even autonomous AI wars, constant terror attacks deep behind lines and other ugliness. 

    I hope someone comes out with a Uber weapon that defeats all frequencies used for drones and these people go out of business. 

    You can't even write a proper anti war novel, movie or song with these little creatures. Oh maybe Slayer can think of something. "Droone warfaaare" 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    What a boom. I hope the crews were aware they had been located and targeted and had abandoned the vehicles. Those iskanders are probably the best ground to ground weapon Russia has. I remember earlier in the war they delivered accurate and deadly strikes like the one in the Kiev Mall where Grads were hiding.

    They are indeed getting better at hunting down big pricey western assets. That patriot system could have had a few Su 34 kill rings painted already. But it took them remarkably long for a country they know every inch of, are scanning everyday, have agents inside and it's next to their borders. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    If I were russian I would invest in fast, small patrol tank/boats with shilka quad 23mm turrets that would hunt in front of the big ships. Highly agile that would be impossible to hit with naval drones. 

    For equipment, maybe radar, maybe night vision, definetly a big spotlight. 

    An embarrassment for the BSF that technology a little better than Somali pirate boats can penetrate their defenses and get them to the bottom. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Just now, kimbosbread said:

    As has been pointed out, the weird thing is that it’s very much an older man’s war. What do you do as a country if much of the younger generation prefers to flee and would rather be refugees than soldiers?

    For the next set of wars, what will the US do if it can not recruit enough volunteers? We’re seeing huge problems on this front already, and if the conservative half of the US more or less gives up on military service after the middle eastern mess of the last 30 years… that’s our main soldiering pool. Do we just go full terminators all around?

    You are hoping that the younger ones of your opponent don't have any desire for war either. No more wars. Problem solved. If suddenly no one would enlist, then all wars could stop. Could be a reality after this war ends. But how will it end? 

    The next option is war from distance, AI, robots, drones, guided by 16yr olds boys and girls but no human is allowed on the battlefield. 

    5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

    No, I do not believe Russia is in better shape than 2 years ago, no way.

    Yes, on one hand Russia has adapted to the means at their disposal (lots of mines, lots of meat willing to die, refurbished 100 year old tanks, dumb glide bombs, weapons from Iran and DPRK). On the other hand, Russia’s political edifice is more brittle than it was; we had a pseudo-kind-of-coup-attempt last years, which could have easily succeeded. We have the nationalist true believers in jail, dieing or killing themselves. Russia is out of well-trained soldiers and a lot of modern equipment, and is very close to air power hunger. Ukraine is at the cusp of a revolution in drone warfare, and is amassing extreme long-range strike potential.

    If you think Russia is stronger, then answer me these questions:

    • What does Russia do if Ukraine takes down another 25-50% of their refining capacity? Where will the spare parts come from? Where will the money appear from?
    • What does Russia do if they lose another 20 SU34s and an A50? If they cannot drop glide bombs, what’s their next option?
    • How is Russia going to mobilize another 400k soldiers and train and equip them?

    Russia is in better shape because :

    - has survived the humiliating defeats of the first year. 

    -It now has the momentum in the front lines and is gaining ground steadily. 

    - defeated the long awaited Ukrainian counter offensive. 

    -defeated (or maybe crushed) the hype around western wunderwaffen. 

    -At last found a successful cheap way to employ the air force in support of ground operations. 

    - Vastly improved drone fleet  capabilities and operational efficiency.

    -has no conflicting internal voices anymore. No Prigozyn, no Navalny, no opposition, no crazy ultra nationalists. Just a dull grey homogenous military state. 

    -caused serious cracks and doubt among Ukrainians and westerners if victory is possible. 

    -western funding is now more insecure than ever. 

    - has overcome sanctions and tech and production shortcomings.

    - has the upper hand in manpower and widening the gap while Ukraine is facing serious issues with mobilization. 

    That doesn't mean it's in great shape of course. But in most ways it has adapted and wages war better than Feb 2022.

     

     

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    Seriously and @squatter can look here too.  For anyone advocating Ukraine pursuing peace negotiations or suing for peace - easy to say but no one in this camp has provided a coherent theory of what that would look like right now.

    Let’s say “Ok, you guys are right. Ukraine is out of options here. There are no viable way for Ukraine to continue to prosecute this war.”  Ok, so what?  What would peace negotiations look like?  How exactly do you guys see these “peace negotiations” happening.  Every time I ask this question I get some hand waving but no one has yet to unpack just how any peace negotiations could end up in anything but weakened western influence and a more vulnerable Ukraine that Russia is going to exploit.  What peace negotiation, that Russia is going to accept - while, as we are continually reminded, Russia is still capable of waging offensives to take ground?  What possible leverage does the west or Ukraine have in guaranteeing Ukrainian independence and security.  Is Russia going to offer reparations?  How about war crimes prosecution?  Is Russia going to give up an inch of ground it has taken?  Are they going to push for recognition of Crimea and Donbas as Russian provinces.

    This is what is so disingenuous about this line of advocacy - at best it is delusional liberal left “let’s give peace a chance”.  At worst is it far right BS designed to program failure into this entire war so that their presidential candidate can be “right all along”.  In both cases the idea of peace negotiations right now is an empty coffin where actual ideas on this war go to die.  We may very well need a negotiated end-state in this war, but suing for peace now, while on the back foot is going to embolden Putin and his regime…and is exactly what they are looking for in order to promote themselves “Look we brought them all to their knees”.

    But let’s open the floor.  Please walk us through what a peace process would look like right now.  Let’s stop sideline heckling at won’t work and tell us what you think will work.

    To be fair, I put in a certain perspective. That, if there is no collective desire to defend Ukraine *among the population of Ukraine, then there is no point in continuing this war and killing the willing and the bravest in a defensive retreat. These people have been the most heroic lot I have witnessed in my post 70s life. 

    They can of course keep fighting until the end if that's their desire. 

    But as an outsider  peace seems like better option than a war until the very end. Peace would unfortunately mean Crimea and Donbas to Russians officially. For now. The fact they are already russian and probably not possible to retake, makes things less painful I guess. 

    But what if peace now can prepare Ukraine better for the future? In a couple years time. With a proper airforce, with enough artillery shells, with even western presence in their land? Not to gear for another war but to show that they are impossible now to overcome. And at the same time a phyrric victory of an isolated Russia would mean that they are not able to keep up or prepare for second war. Then they slowly disintegrate, with the old people and the old soviet memories that somehow brought us here. With a Soviet flag of victory in the ruins of Bakhmut and the Black Sea fleet locked in Port and rusting. And a new generation of more open minded people that are fed up with a decaying country will eventually bring the change and bridge the two countries that speak the same words again. Actually war is what keeps Russia running at the moment. The idea that they are fighting the big collective West and the Slavic traitors feeds their struggle against daily misery. If this war ends what will keep them together? Kinda like pedaling and balancing a war bicycle. They are definetly in better shape than two years ago,yes can you believe this? 

    As for demanding more from Ukrainians, It's somewhat cynical of us to expect them to carry the burden  and defend all "western values" that they know little of, while we sit safely on our couch. I don't like it to be honest. 
     

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    I don't think Ukraine can take back Crimea with 50yr old soldiers. 

    They should go to the negotiations table already, if younger people don't care about fighting and stop wasting lives. A 45yr old can also breed you know. But he is not always capable of running to the next trench. 

    War should be equal to all, young and old, poor and rich, otherwise it's not a war worth fighting for. 

     

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, evilcommie said:

    As much as we people laugh at Russian Arm's production, its probably in a better shape than the what the EU can do.  

     

    Absolutely. It's now a country geared for war like Nazi Germany in the beginning of WW2. Plus they have huge stockpiles of weapons. We'll probably catch up later, when things get more serious... 

    The continuous comedian approach on the russian army and state, didn't help the overall effort I think. 

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

    I guess there is such a thing as airborne meat waves. 

     

    So, after 2 years the Russians finally found a way to make good use of their airforce. 

    The good thing for them is that the stock of old FABs from the cold war is practically unlimited. (I'm not sure about the gliding kits though)

    I would even use strategic bombers from high altitude to release salvo of guided FABs, each designated a different target. 

    I remember zaluzhny saying that they are at a moment where only a technological leap over the enemy would allow them to break enemy lines. Russians have found their wunderwaffe, mass use of glided bombs. For UKR that weapon could be a competitive airforce. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Could the sudden surge of Su 34s losses mean that a few F16s are already operating incognito with long range missiles. (Or Russians are more and more aggressive with the airforce and pushing forward less carefully). 

    I'm not sure though Russians are facing an airforce elimination problem. Because the X factor (monthly losses) is not sure to continue at that rate. They could also invest more in older types like Su 24s for lobing bombs until they figure out what is going on. Strange why they use and keep losing their more advanced planes for primitive ground attack roles, with old refurbished gliding FABs. 

     

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